Saturday, October 19, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (10-7) at Boston Red Sox (9-9)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 2-3 through five games on their seven-game, eight-day roadtrip…they won the first two in Yankee Stadium on Thursday and Friday, followed by three consecutive losses from Saturday through last night, two in New York and one in Boston…tonight the Twins will continue the trip with the second of three against the Red Sox at Fenway Park… after tomorrow afternoon’s series finale, the Twins will travel back to Minneapolis to begin a 10-game homestand with three games against the Nationals (April 21-23), three games against the Yankees (April 24-26) and four games against the Royals (April 27-30).

WEIRD GAME ENDS IN 10-INNING LOSS FOR TWINS: The Twins lost to the Red Sox last night at Fenway Park by a score of 5-4 in 10 innings, making them 2-1 in extras this season… Sonny Gray was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing just one run on seven hits in 5.0 innings pitched with two walks and seven strikeouts…the Twins took a two-run lead in the top of the 10th but Jovani Moran allowed three runs to score in the bottom half on three hits and one walk…the offense recorded just four hits, highlighted by a Max Kepler home run in the seventh inning, his second of the season…Christian Vázquez made his return to Fenway, going 1-for-4 with a single and two strikeouts…the three hour and seven minute game marked the longest for the Twins this season.

GALLANT RETURN: The Twins have returned outfielder Joey Gallo from his rehab assignment and reinstated him from the 10-day Injured List…Gallo has missed the Twins’ last 10 games with a right intercostal strain, an injury he sustained on April 7 vs. Houston…he played in
three games on rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul, going 2-for-12 with one double… Gallo has hit .278 (5-for-18) with one double, three home runs, seven RBI, four runs scored and a 1.183 OPS in seven games for the Twins this season…to make room for Gallo on the 26-man roster, the Twins have optioned outfielder Kyle Garlick to Triple-A St. Paul…Garlick played in two games for the Twins, going 1-for-7 with a home run and one RBI.

LOVE THAT DIRTY WATER: The Twins have lost two straight to the Red Sox, dating back to August of 2022, but have gone 3-2 in their last five against Boston…after this series, the Twins will host the Sox for four games at Target Field from June 19-22.

Twins are looking to avoid losing a series to the Red Sox for the first time since dropping a three-game series at Fenway from August 24-26, 2021.

Carlos Correa is hitting .316 (54-for-171) with eight doubles, 10 home runs, 27 RBI, 36 runs scored, 33 walks, a .424 on-base percentage, a .538 slugging percentage and a .962 OPS in 46 career regular season games against the Red Sox…he is hitting .315 (29-for-92) with seven home runs and a .987 OPS in 24 career games at Fenway.

MAX POWER: Max Kepler has homered twice in his last four games…each of his last four home runs have been hit on the road (dating back to June of 2022)…Kepler has one career home run off Corey Kluber, which came on August 31, 2016 at Progressive Field…he hit his 131st career home run last night, moving within one of tying Jacque Jones for 14th on the Twins all-time list (since 1961):

TWIN HR TWIN HR TWIN HR
1) Harmon Killebrew……….475 8) Gary Gaetti ………………..201 15) Max Kepler………….. 131
2) Kent Hrbek………………..293 9) Brian Dozier……………….167 16) Eddie Rosario………. 119
3) Justin Morneau…………..221 10) Tom Brunansky…………163 17) Roy Smalley…………. 110
4) Tony Oliva………………….220 11) Miguel Sanó……………..162 18) Jason Kubel …………. 105
5) Torii Hunter ……………….214 12) Joe Mauer ………………..143 19) Corey Koskie………… 101
6) Bob Allison………………..211 13) Michael Cuddyer……….141 20) Byron Buxton ……….. 100
7) Kirby Puckett……………..207 14) Jacque Jones…………….132 21) J. Hall/J. Polanco…….. 98

NOTE: Kepler has one leadoff home run this season, coming on April 3 at Miami, off Johnny Cueto…he has 14 leadoff homers in his career, tied with Chuck Knoblauch for fourth-most in club history, trailing Brian Dozier (28) and Jacque Jones (20).

CARLOS ACROSS AMERICA: In his last 36 road games, dating back to August 13, 2022, Carlos Correa is hitting .309 (42-for-136) with six doubles, seven home runs, 20 RBI, 16 walks, a .378 on-base percentage and an .886 OPS…since that date, he ranks tied for eighth in the AL in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage and 10th in OPS (minimum 100 plate appearances).

Correa’s first-inning single last night was the hardest hit ball for a Twin this season, with a 113.9 mph exit velocity.

‘PEN STILL MIGHTY: The Twins bullpen has combined to go 3-2, 2.75 ERA (52.1 IP, 16 ER) with 15 walks, 56 strikeouts, a .197 opponent batting average and a .590 opponent OPS…they rank third among all bullpens in baseball in ERA, and fourth in opponent batting average and OPS.

The Twins’ bullpen has averaged 90.1 mph, the fourth-highest average pitch velocity in the AL and seventh-highest in baseball… they have an average fastball velocity of 94.7 mph, fourth-best in the AL and sixth-best in baseball.

After ranking third in baseball in innings pitched in 2022 (654.1), they have pitched the fewest innings in 2023 (52.1).

WELL PLAYED, MAUER: Joe Mauer is celebrating his 40th birthday today…Mauer shares a birthday with actor James Franco, actress Kate Hudson, former NFL star/former Head and Shoulders commercial co-star Troy Polamalu and tennis player Maria Sharapova.
AOther former Twins celebrating birthdays: Frank Viola (63), Joe Beimel (46), Dennys Reyes (46) and Zach Duke (40).

STARTING PITCHER – JOE RYAN 41
2023: 3-0, 2.84 ERA

Making his fourth start and appearance of 2023 and his third road start this year…also his 36th career start and appearance.

Has won a career-best six consecutive decisions, since September 13, 2022; is 6-0, 1.85 ERA (43.2 IP, 9 ER) with 11 walks, 53 strikeouts and a .140 opponent batting average in that seven-start span.

Facing Boston for the third time in his career and second time at Fenway Park…1-1, 4.91 ERA (11.0 IP, 6 ER) with one walk and 15 strikeouts in two previous starts vs. Red Sox.

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

IT’S A WALK-OFF: The Red Sox defeated the Twins last night, 5-4, when Alex Verdugo hit a walk-off RBI single with 2 outs in the 10th inning…The Twins challenged the ruling of a fair ball, but the call stood. Last night was the Sox’ 2nd walk-off win of the season (also 4/1 vs. BAL, Duvall 2-run HR). Last night marked the Red Sox’ 1st extra-inning game of the season…They had entered the day as 1 of 7 teams yet to play an extra-inning game.

IT AIN’T OVER ‘TIL IT’S OVER: The Red Sox earned their 7th come-from-behind win of the season last night, tied for most in the majors (also ARI, CLE, PIT)…They came to bat in the 8th inning with a 2-1 deficit and then trailed, 4-2, to start the bottom of the 10th inning. The Sox trailed by multiple runs in 5 of their 7 comeback wins, including by 4 runs on 4/15 vs. LAA and by 6 runs on 4/1 vs. BAL.

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games…They have alternated series wins and losses this season: 2-1 vs. BAL, 0-3 vs. PIT, 3-0 at DET, 0-4 at TB, 3-1 vs. LAA. The Sox are in a stretch of 19 days without an off day from 4/8-26 (6-5 so far), their longest stretch of the season…They will not play on more than 10 consecutive days again until 8/15-30 (16 games). Each of the last 3 World Series champions in a 162-game season was 9-9 or worse through 18 games: 2022 Astros (9-9), 2021 Braves (8-10), and 2019 Nationals (9-9).

VINTAGE PERFORMANCE: Chris Sale struck out 11 batters in 6.0 IP last night vs. MIN, allowing 1 run on 3 hits (2 BB, 2 HBP)…He generated 19 whiffs on 44 swings (43.2%). Last night marked the 15th time in his career Sale struck out 10+ batters, allowed 1 or 0 runs, and did not earn a win, passing Nolan Ryan for the most such games in MLB history.

MOST 10-STRIKEOUT GAMES BY RED SOX PITCHERS
Rk. Pitcher G

  1. Pedro Martinez 72
  2. Roger Clemens 68
  3. Chris Sale 44

MOST 10-STRIKEOUT GAMES IN MLB, 2012-2023
Rk. Pitcher G

  1. Max Scherzer 104
  2. Chris Sale 79
  3. Jacob deGrom 59

WHAT A RELIEF: In their last 5 games, Red Sox relievers have posted a 1.61 ERA (4 ER/22.1 IP) while striking out 22 batters and walking only 4. The Sox have posted a 3.30 relief ERA this season, compared to a 4.59 relief ERA in 2022.

RED SOX PITCHERS WITH A RELIEF ERA OF 2.00 OR LOWER
Pitcher Relief ERA IP ER
Kenley Jansen 0.00 6.0 0
Kutter Crawford 0.96 9.1 1
Josh Winckowski 1.93 14.0 3
John Schreiber 2.00 9.0 2

CLOSING TIME: In the 8th and 9th innings combined, the Red Sox lead MLB with a 1.13 ERA (4 ER/32.0 IP)…The Sox have outscored opponents in those innings, 20-5. The Sox are 6-0 when leading after 6 innings. The Red Sox are 1 of 3 teams in MLB without a blown save this season (5-for-5)…The other teams are TB (3-for-3) and MIA (3-for-3).

MOST SAVES IN MLB HISTORY
Rk. Pitcher SV

  1. Mariano Rivera …..652
  2. Trevor Hoffman …..601
  3. Lee Smith …………..478
  4. Francisco Rodriguez..437
  5. John Franco………..424
  6. Billy Wagner……….422
    T7. Kenley Jansen .. 395
    T7. Craig Kimbrel ……..395

CLOSE SHAVES: 14 of the Sox’ first 18 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer…The only team in MLB with more such games is CLE (16). The Red Sox’ 7 games decided by 1 run are tied for 2nd most in MLB behind CLE (11)…Their 4 losses by 1 run are tied for 5th most in MLB behind CLE (6), WSH (5), SEA (5), and CIN (5). 7 of the Sox’ 9 losses have come by 3 runs or fewer, including 1 loss by 2 runs and 4 by 1 run. The Sox have come from behind in 7 of their 9 wins.

IT’S ALL RIGHT NOW: The Red Sox are scheduled to face a right-handed starting pitcher in each game of this series vs. MIN and 2 of their 3 games at MIL, after facing a left-handed starter in 8 of their previous 10 games. Left-handed starters are 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 9 games against the Sox (23 ER/34.1 IP), while righthanded starters are 4-1 with a 5.23 ERA in 8 games against them (25 ER/43.0 IP).

CHANGING TIMES: Prior to last night, each of the Red Sox’ previous 6 games had a different scheduled start time…From last Wednesday at TB through Monday vs. LAA, in order, they were: 6:40 p.m., 1:10 p.m., 7:10 p.m., 4:10 p.m., 1:35 p.m., and 11:10 a.m. On Sunday vs. LAA, the Red Sox defeated the Angels in 1 hour and 57 minutes, tied for MLB’s shortest game of 2023 (also MIN at MIA on 4/4). Sunday marked the Sox’ fastest 9-inning game since 4/22/99 at DET (1:49, 1-0 loss), their fastest at Fenway Park since 10/1/89 vs. MIL (1:50, 5-1 win).

HOME COOKING: The Red Sox are 4-1 so far on their 7-game homestand vs. LAA (3-1) and MIN (1-0). In home games, the Sox rank 2nd in the AL in runs (60) and AVG (.259), and rank 3rd on OBP (.339).

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox are tied for 3rd in the AL and 5th in MLB in runs scored (96), trailing TB (125), TEX (100), and ATL (97)…The Sox also rank in the AL’s top 5 in various offensive categories (see below). The Sox rank 8th in the majors in OPS against starting pitchers (.790), compared to 17th in OPS against relief pitchers (.679). The Sox have been hit by a pitch 11 times, tied for 2nd most in the AL and 3rd most in MLB (NYM-14, TB-14).

RED SOX OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Stat AL Rank
96 R………………………… 3rd
147 H………………………. 5th
59 XBH………………….T-2nd
21 HR ……………………… 4th
Stat AL Rank
.410 SLG …………………….. 4th
.734 OPS …………………….. 4th
21.7 SO%……………………. 5th
9.4 BB%……………………… 5th

NINE IS FINE: Over their first 18 games, the Red Sox have scored 9+ runs 5 times (4-1 record), 4-8 runs 7 times (4-3 record), and 0-3 runs 6 times (1-5 record). The Sox’ 5 games with 9+ runs scored are tied for 2nd most in MLB, trailing only TB (8). The Red Sox have only scored 9+ runs in more than 5 of their first 20 games 4 times: 2012 (7), 1949 (6), 1924 (7), and 1901 (6).

RUNNING RED SOX: The Red Sox are 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts…That is their longest streak of successful attempts to begin a season since 2015 (12-for-12). The only other team that has not been caught stealing this season is KC (12-for-12).

PINCH ME!: The Red Sox have used a pinch-hitter 21 times this season, going 7-for-18 with 3 RBI (2B, HR, BB). The Sox’ .389 AVG (7-for-18) in pinch-hit situations leads MLB…Their 7 pinch hits are 3 more than any other team…Raimel Tapia leads MLB in pinch hits (3).

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 28 COREY KLUBER – RHP
Allowed 4 runs over 4.2 IP on Thursday at TB (4 H, BB, 7 SO, HR)…Allowed a leadoff HR in the 1st inning, then retired 12 of his next 13 batters faced through the end of the 4th inning. Is making his 10th start at Fenway Park…Is 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA (23 ER/51.2 IP) in 9 career starts at Fenway. Owns a 3.33 ERA (58 ER/156.2 IP) in 24 career starts vs. MIN…Allowed 1 run over 6.0 IP in his last start vs. MIN on 4/29/22 with TB (H, 6 SO, HB). Opponents are batting .111 (2-for-18, 4 SO, HR) this season in at-bats ending with his cutter

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