Saturday, October 19, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants (5-10) at Miami Marlins (9-8)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: Winless in their first three games of this road trip, the Giants will try and get into the win column today and even up this series at a game apiece after losing last night… since 2015, the Giants have gone 21-26 (.447) vs. the Marlins, which is the club’s third-lowest winning percentage against a National League opponent in that span…SF has only fared worse against the Cardinals (18-29, .383) and Dodgers (65- 81, .445) in that stretch.

IS IT TRUE MOM? ‘FRAID SO…: Furthermore, the Giants are 8-16 (.333) in this ballpark since 2015…the .333 winning percentage is tied for SF’s second-worst in that span in any park they’ve played at least 20 games according to Stats, LLC. Giants, Worst Record at Any Ballpark – since 2015 (min. 20g) (Stats, LLC)

Ballpark W-L
Busch Stadium 7-15 (.318)
loanDepot Park 8-16 (.333)
Wrigley Field 8-16 (.333)
Ballpark W-L
Dodger Stadium 28-45 (.384)
Citizens Bank Park 9-13 (.409)

WAIT, FOR REALZ?: The Giants have gone 0-3 on this trip so far but have only trailed at the end of a complete inning in nine total innings out of a possible 31.0 innings in three games…five of those 9.0 innings came on Friday when SF trailed from the 2nd through the 7th innings before tying the game in the 8th inning and then never trailed again until Detroit hit its three-run walk-off homer in the 11th…on Saturday, SF never trailed in the game until Detroit won the game on its walk-off single in the 11th inning…yesterday, SF did not trail until Jorge Soler put Miami ahead with his two-out homer in the 7th inning.

RIGHT SIDE UP?: SF gets a righty starter tonight in Miami’s Edward Cabrera…as you can see from the breakdown below, the Giants have fared much better against right-handed pitching this season than lefties.

Giants vs. Left/vs. Right Hitting Rankings in MLB
vs. Left-Handed Pitchers
Stat Total MLB Rank
AVG .211 25th
HR 3 T-21st
RBI 11 25th
OPS .565 29th

vs. Right-Handed Pitchers Stat Total MLB Rank
AVG .263 7th
HR 22 3rd
RBI 61 T-5th
OPS .852 2nd

MIAMI VICE: Two of the former Mets on the Giants have really played well here in the 305 during their careers…IF J.D. Davis has a .990 OPS here, fifth-best among active players with at least 100 plate appearances here in Miami…in terms of just OBP, Davis’ .442 OBP vs. Miami is second-best among active players with 100 PA here behind only Juan Soto (.443)…OF Michael Conforto’s .976 career OPS at loanDepot Park is 8thbest.
Active Players, Highest Career OPS vs. Marlins (min. 100 PA) (Stats, LLC) Name OPS
Hunter Renfroe (LAA) 1.079
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 1.060
Kris Bryant (COL) 1.014
Juan Soto (SD) .996

Name OPS
J.D. Davis (SF) .990
Justin Turner (BOS) .982
Brandon Belt (TOR) .978
Michael Conforto (SF) .976

WALK SIGN IS ON: IF/OF LaMonte Wade Jr. walked yesterday to give him 13 walks in 50 plate appearances so far for a 26% walk rate…that rate is tops in the Majors among players with at least 40 plate appearances so far in 2023…for comparison, Wade’s walk rate in his breakout 2021 campaign was 8.7% and 10.4% when he wasn’t fully healthy in 2022…Wade’s overall .490 OBP is second in the Majors only to MIA’s Luis Arraez
(.508).

DEEEEEP CUTS: SF’s 25 homers are fourth-best in the Majors entering play today behind the Rays (37), Dodgers (30) and Yankees (26)…the Giants’ 25 homers through their first 15 games are most in franchise history…SF has been slightly homer-dependent this year with 58.3% (42 of 72) of their runs coming via the big fly, still most in the Majors ahead of the Dodgers (55%) and Marlins (51%) according to Sports Info
Solutions…on the flip side, when the Giants do not homer they are 0-4 in the early going.

STARTING STRONG: Despite posting a 1-6 record so far this season, Giants starters have a 3.30 ERA overall in the year, fifth-best in MLB…they have also struck out 81, walked a Major-League low 14 batters and posted a 1.15 WHIP, which is tied for fifth-best in MLB…SF’s starters have not walked a batter in each of their last two outings (13.1 innings total) and have only walked two in their last four starts combined (20.1 innings).

ROBERT ALEXANDER THE GREAT?: LHP Alex Wood gets the ball tonight for the Giants and he’s fared quite well against the Marlins in his career…he’s 8-5 with a 2.55 ERA (27er, 95.1ip) in 18 games (15 starts) vs. Miami…since 2015 though, Wood’s 1.65 ERA vs. the Marlins is best in the Majors (min. 50ip vs. MIA)…Wood has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last 11 starts vs. Miami dating to August 31, 2014…according to Stats, LLC, that is tied for the second-longest streak all-time by any pitcher vs. the Marlins…only Cole Hamels had a
longer run (14 games from June 30, 2012-August 22, 2015).

Most Consecutive Starts vs. Miami Allowing 3 or Fewer Runs — All-Time(Stats, LLC)
Pitcher Consec. Starts Dates
Cole Hamels 14 June 30, 2012-April 22, 2015
Alex Wood 11 August 31, 2014-present
R.A. Dickey 11 April 3, 2021-August 4, 2017
Johan Santana 11 June 7, 2002-May 11, 2012
Randy Johnson 11 June 14, 1999-May 23, 2004

LIKE FISH OFF THE BARREL?: According to Sports Info Solutions LHP Alex Wood has been the best Giants starter at minimizing contact through his first two outings…he’s only allowed two barreled balls overall and only nine with an exit velo higher than 95 mph.

INTO THE RELATIVE UNKNOWN: Not many on the Giants active roster have gotten a look at tonight’s Marlins starter Edward Cabrera…IF J.D. Davis (1×2, k) and OF Michael Conforto (2×4, HR, 4 rbi) are the only guys on the active roster to have seen Cabrera…OF Joc Pederson has also faced him but he’s currently on the IL.

TODAY’S STARTER – ALEX WOOD LHP #57
2023 RECORD: 0-0, 1.17 ERA

WITH THE GIANTS: Is in his third season with the Giants…signed a two-year Major League contract with San Francisco on December 1, 2021 after spending the 2021 season in a Giants uniform… tonight will mark his 243rd game and 193rd start in his career.

LAST START: Faced the Dodgers at Oracle Park last Tuesday and did not factor in the decision…Wood fired 4.2 innings of one-hit, no-run ball against his former club while striking out five, walking three and hitting two in the 75-pitch outing…SF went on to win the game, 5-0.

I’LL TAKE AN EXTRA DAY…: Wood was scheduled to pitch the first game of this series yesterday but was pushed back a day after SF’s rainout in Detroit on Sunday…with that in mind, Wood is now making this start exactly a week after his last one…the lefty actually flew ahead of the team to Miami on Sunday so he didn’t incur the waiting around in Detroit that the rest of the team did.

VS. MARLINS: Has faced the Marlins 18 times in his career (15 starts) and has an 8-5 record with a 2.55 ERA (27er, 95.1ip) while allowing 82 hits, 85 strikeouts and 19 walks…last season he faced them only once and was charged with the loss in a 3-0 decision here at loanDepot Park…despite that loss, Wood has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 consecutive starts vs. Miami dating to August 31, 2014…that run is tied for the second-longest streak by any pitcher in MLB history vs. the Marlins…Cole Hamels has the longest streak at 14 consecutive games from June 30, 2012-April 22, 2015 (Stats, LLC).

DOES THIS QUALIFY AS OWNAGE?: Since 2015, Wood has a 1.65 ERA vs. the Marlins (10er, 54.2ip) in nine starts…the 1.65 ERA vs. Miami in that span is lowest in the Majors (min. 50.0ip vs. the Marlins) according to Stats, LLC…Wood’s teams have gone 6-3 in those nine starts.

GET ‘EM BITING: Wood’s first pitch strike percentage is 52.6% after two games this season… batters are swinging at that first pitch 21.1% of the time and have an overall swing and miss rate of 25.0%…last year Wood threw a first pitch strike 63.5% with batters swinging at the first pitch 33.8% of the time…opposing batters had a swing and miss rate of 24.8% overall last season vs. Wood.

FLY AWAY: Since joining SF in 2021, Wood is 8-9 with a 4.87 ERA (68er, 125.2ip) in 26 road starts…SF is 14-12 in those 26 games…if you look at his last nine starts away from home, Wood is 3-4 with a 6.64 ERA (29er, 39.1ip) with a batting average against of .272 (43-for-158)…SF is 4-5 in those nine games.

LEFTOVERS: Wood dominated left-handed batters last season, holding them to a .193 average (23-for-119) with five walks and 36 strikeouts…he allowed just three extra-base hits against lefties (one HR and two doubles) all year and posted a .464 OPS overall…right-handers hit .283 (109-for385) with a .800 OPS.

MY SALES PITCH: His go-to pitch last season was the sinker, as he used the pitch 45.5% of the time…he recorded 68 of his 131 strikeouts last year with his sinker…that was in contrast to his first season with SF in 2021 where he still used the sinker
about the same percentage of the time (46.4%) but his main strikeout pitch was the slider as he recorded 91 of his 152 strikeouts (59.8%) that year.

ORDER UP…: In 2022, Wood limited opposing hitters to a .645 OPS and a .241 average the first time through the order…the second time through those numbers went up to a .706 OPS and a .256 average…the third time through opponents had a .941 OPS and a .326 average off Wood…after two starts this season opposing hitters have a .548 OPS and a .143 batting average and a .701 OPS and .313 batting average second time around.

PACING: Averaged 15.1 seconds between pitches when the bases were empty during the 2022 season, 25th-quickest in the Majors last year (league average is 18.1 seconds)…with runners on however, Wood slows it down a bit, averaging 21.3 seconds between pitches…that rate was still well under league average (23.3 seconds).

MIAMI MARLINS NOTES:

MARLINS MINUTE
The Marlins today continue a six-game homestand, their second ‘stand of the year, with the second of three games vs. San Francisco after going 2-1 in the first leg vs. Arizona. Later this week, will travel to Cleveland for three games from Apr. 21 – 23 and on the first of two trips to Atlanta for a four-game set from Apr. 24 – 27.

MONDAY’S RECAP
Miami took their second consecutive series opener last night with a come-from-behind 4-3 win over San Francisco. The Giants grabbed the early lead, scoring 3 runs on 6 hits off LHP Jesus Luzardo who exited with 1 out in the fifth inning. Miami tacked on 1 run in the third inning on CF Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s (2×4) RBI single and another in the sixth, courtesy of 2B Luis Arraez’s (1×4) RBI single. In a pinch-hit situation in the seventh inning, OF Jorge Soler delivered a 2-run homer to straightaway centerfield to put Miami ahead. The bullpen consisting of LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Matt Barnes, and RHP Dylan Floro, shut down the Giants’ offense combining to throw 3.2 innings scoreless innings. LHP A.J. Puk allowed 1 hit in the ninth but escaped from trouble to record his second save as a Marlin.

TURNING THE TRENDING TIDE
The Marlins are 5-0 in one-run games this season, marking the second time in franchise history the Marlins have won their first five games decided by one run – also, 2008 (started 5-0 in one-run games).

• Miami played 64 games decided by one run in 2022, the most such games in the Majors last season. Miami’s 40 one-run losses were the most in a season in club history, the most since the 1975 Houston Astros (41), and just three shy of the single-season record for one-run losses during the Live Ball Era (since 1920) held by the 1968 White Sox (44).

SEEMS FAMILIAR
Starting with this series against the Giants, Miami will play 10 games (3 vs. SF, 3 at CLE, 4 at ATL) against the three franchises they faced in the 1997 Postseason, en route to the club’s first World Series win. The Florida Marlins swept the San Francisco Giants, 3-0, in the NLDS and won 4 of 6 games against the NL East Division Champion Atlanta Braves before advancing to the Fall Classic where they won their first ring in an extra-inning extravaganza during Game 7 on October 26, 1997.

DANCING ON A THIN LINE
Through 17 games this season, Miami is 9-0 when limiting opponents to 4 runs or less and has gone 0-8 when allowing 5 or more runs.

CUBANO GIGANTE
OF/DH Jorge Soler has already collected 6 doubles and 5 home runs in his first 15 games of the year. His 11 extra-base hits are tied for most in the National League.

• His pinch-hit HR yesterday was the 28th pinch-hit HR in franchise history occurring in the seventh inning or later to give the Marlins the lead and the first since Curtis Granderson on Sept. 26, 2019 at Mets. Was just the seventh to occur with two outs, also: Cliff Floyd (July 20, 2000 vs. Atlanta-G2), Charles Johnson (May 13, 2001 at San Diego), Derrek Lee (June 21, 2001 at Atlanta), Joe Dillon (May 21, 2005 vs. Tampa Bay) and Donnie Murphy (July 19, 2010 vs. Colorado) and Tyler Moore (May 14, 2017 vs. Atlanta).

• Soler’s 5 home runs through 15 games are the most by a Marlin since Marcell Ozuna in 2017 (also, 5). Only three players in club history have exceeded this mark through their first 15 G: Derrek Lee, 6 HR in 1998; Miguel Cabrera, 6 HR in 2004; and Mike Jacobs, 6 HR in 2008.

• Four of his five HRs this season have tied the game or given the Marlins the lead and owns 8 such homers as a Marlins (18 HR total).

• The Marlins are 4-0 when Soler homers.

PEN TALES
Dating back to last Tuesday, Apr. 18 at Philadelphia, the Marlins bullpen ranks first in Major League Baseball with a 0.82 ERA (22.0/2) and 0.68 WHIP, is tied for least hits (9), and is one of three teams to not allow a home run in the stretch (also, CHW and TEX).

• RHP Dylan Floro has allowed just 3 baserunners (1 H and 2 BB) in 7 appearances (7.2 innings) with 8 strikeouts. Dating back to July 3 of last season, has posted a 1.45 ERA (43.1/2) with 49 strikeouts. 39 of 44 appearances have been scoreless.

• LHP Andrew Nardi has stranded 8 of 8 inherited runners this season and has not allowed a hit in his last 5 appearances (5.1 innings), with 7 strikeouts in this stretch.

GOOD FIRST IMPRESSIONS
2B Luis Arraez has 25 hits in his first 16 games of the year (14 starts), with 8 multi-hit games. Is the third-most hits in the NL and his .455 batting avg. (25×55) is tops in the Majors among all qualified hitters.

• Is the most hits by a Marlins player through the first 16 games of the season in club history, beating the previous mark of 24 set by Dee Strange-Gordon in 2015. His batting avg. also ranks first in club history through 16 games (min. 50 plate appearances), edging out Christian Yelich’s .396 (21×70) mark in 2016.

• 2B Luis Arraez last week became the first player in Marlins history to hit for the cyle, coming in the 4,700th game in franchise history during the 30th anniversary. Was baseball’s first cycle since St. Louis’ Nolan Arenado last July 1 vs. Philadelphia (with Skip Schumaker serving as Cardinals bench coach). There had been 111 cycles in the Majors since the Marlins franchise began play in 1993.

WATCH HIM SOR-IANO
RHP George Soriano made his Major League debut on Sunday out of the Marlins bullpen, going 3.0 scoreless innings with just 1 hit allowed. Soriano was signed by Miami as an International free agent in 2015, making him the longest tenured Marlin across all levels of the organization.

• Joins a small group of Marlins pitchers who went at least 3.0 innings, allowed 2 hits or less, and did not allow a run in their Major League debuts; the last to accomplish the feat was LHP Trevor Rogers on Aug. 25, 2020. The other four: Josh Beckett on Sept. 4, 2001; Ricky Nolasco on Apr. 5, 2004; Adalberto Mendez on Aug. 23, 2010; and Brandon Leibrandt on Aug. 23, 2020.

TODAY’S STARTER – #27 EDWARD CABRERA
• Edward Cabrera, 25, made 14 starts at the Major League level last year after being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville on May 31, 2022.

• Walked 6 batters and allowed 2 runs in 4.0 innings on his first start of the season vs. New York Mets.

• Ranked in the top three among rookie starters in several categories, including his .177 opponents batting average, 1.074 WHIP, and 3.01 ERA.

• His .177 avg. against was the lowest by a rookie starter with at least 10 GS. Among all MLB pitchers, ranked fourth behind Christian Javier (.170), Tony Gonsolin (.172), and Jacob deGrom (.175).

• In 7 starts at home in 2022, went 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA (35.1 IP/18 ER). Posted a 1.49 ERA (36.1 IP/6 ER) in 7 starts away, allowing 10 less hits than at home.

• Was named to MLB.com’s All-Rookie Second Team.

• Made four consecutive scoreless outings (22.2 IP) after returning from injury from Aug. 1 until Aug. 22, becoming the second pitcher in franchise history to make four consecutive scoreless starts, joining Chris Hammond in 1994.

• Set a new career-high with 8.0 innings pitched at Oakland on Aug. 22, 2022.

• In his first start back in almost 2 months on Aug. 5, 2022 tossed 5.0 no-hit innings against Chicago Cubs.

• Was the first pitcher in club history to pitch 6.0 innings or more and allow two hits or less in each of his first two starts of a season.

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