The Missouri State Bears (7-5) and Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) clash in the inaugural Xbox Bowl, a fresh addition to the postseason slate pitting Conference USA upstarts against Sun Belt stalwarts in a battle of transitional programs seeking validation. Missouri State, in their first FBS bowl under coach Ryan Beard, rides a three-game skid into Frisco but boasts a potent passing attack led by QB Jacob Clark. Arkansas State, aiming for a third straight bowl appearance under Butch Jones, counters with balanced scoring but must overcome a porous run defense (4.2 YPC allowed) and key absences in the backfield. This neutral-site renewal of a lopsided series favors the Bears’ aerial edge, though the Red Wolves’ tempo (65 plays/game) could grind a close one. Kickoff is Thursday, December 18, 2025, at 9:00 p.m. ET from Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas (capacity 12,000; opened 2016 as part of The Star development). The state-of-the-art indoor facility, home to Dallas Cowboys practice ops, ensures climate control and a pro-Missouri State vibe (Texas proximity), with tickets averaging $65 (Ticketmaster).
Broadcast: ESPN2 (national); streaming on ESPN+ and Fubo. Tailgate zones open 5 p.m.
Weather Forecast
As an indoor dome, weather is irrelevant—no elements to contend with. Ambient conditions outside: Mostly cloudy at kickoff with temperatures around 52°F, cooling to 40°F post-game. Winds light at 10-15 mph SSE, 5% precipitation chance—clear for pre/post festivities, but bundle up for tailgates.
Team Records and Standings
Missouri State’s CUSA finish (5-3) edges Arkansas State’s Sun Belt mark (5-3), but the Red Wolves rank higher in scoring (29.8 PPG vs. 28.4). Bears lead in total defense (24.1 PPG allowed vs. 27.3).
| Team | Overall Record | Conference Record | CUSA/Sun Belt Rank | ATS Record | O/U Record |
| Missouri State Bears | 7-5 | 5-3 | 4th | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 6-6 | 5-3 (West) | 4th West | 5-7 | 6-6 |
Recent Team Forms
Missouri State stumbles late with defensive lapses (allowed 35+ in 2/3 losses); Arkansas State mixes resilience (3-1 in one-score games) with blowout vulnerabilities (3 losses by 20+).
Missouri State Bears Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats (Bears) |
| Nov. 29 | vs. LT | L 30-42 | 312 total yds, 3 TOs, 41% 3rd down |
| Nov. 22 | @ KENN | L 34-41 | 389 total yds, 2 INTs, 50% conv. |
| Nov. 15 | vs. UTEP | W 38-24 | 478 total yds, 1 TO, 67% red zone |
| Nov. 8 | @ LIB | W 21-17 | 342 total yds, 2 sacks, 55% 3rd down |
| Nov. 1 | vs. FIU | W 31-28 | 456 total yds, 1 INT, OT thriller |
- Form Summary: 3-2. Averaging 28.4 PPG scored/30.4 allowed. Passing surges (Clark 278 yds in losses), but run D falters (198 rush allowed/gm last 3).
Arkansas State Red Wolves Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats (Red Wolves) |
| Nov. 29 | @ App State | W 30-29 | 389 total yds, 1 TO, 60% 3rd down |
| Nov. 20 | vs. Louisiana | L 34-30 | 421 total yds, 2 INTs, 55% conv. |
| Nov. 8 | vs. Southern Miss | L 27-21 | 342 total yds, 3 sacks, 44% red zone |
| Nov. 1 | @ Troy | W 23-10 | 285 total yds, 1 TO, 33% 3rd down |
| Oct. 25 | vs. Georgia Southern | W 34-24 | 456 total yds, 2 sacks, 67% conv. |
- Form Summary: 3-2. Averaging 29.0 PPG scored/24.6 allowed. Close wins highlight Raynor’s arm (247 yds avg.), but secondary leaks (220 pass allowed/gm).
Conference vs. Conference: CUSA vs. Sun Belt
CUSA holds a slim all-time edge (84-83 overall, 50.3% win rate), averaging 27.8-27.3 scores. In bowls, Sun Belt leads 19-13 (59.4%) since 2013, with overs in 58% (avg. total 54.1 points). Missouri State’s CUSA transition (5-3) mirrors Arkansas State’s Sun Belt consistency, but bowls favor Sun Belt underdogs (6-4 ATS last 10).
Injury Report
Injuries thin both skill groups: Missouri State’s O-line holds, but Arkansas State’s backfield voids (Cross out) force committee runs. Opt-outs minimal pre-bowl.
Missouri State Bears Injuries:
| Player | Status | Injury/Notes |
| H. Lillibridge (OG) | Out | Undisclosed (season-ending) |
| G. Clinton (OL) | Out | Leg (missed last 4) |
| J. Williams (CB) | Questionable | Undisclosed (limited Nov. 29) |
Arkansas State Red Wolves Injuries:
| Player | Status | Injury/Notes |
| Ja’Quez Cross (RB) | Out | ACL tear (season-ending, Sep.) |
| Javante Mackey (LB) | Questionable | Undisclosed (limited Nov.) |
| Tyler Little (TE) | Questionable | Undisclosed (missed 2 games) |
| Q. Wright (DL) | Questionable | Undisclosed (Nov. 29) |
| T. Smith (OG) | Questionable | Undisclosed (Nov. 29) |
Key Player Matchups
Indoor setting amplifies matchups: Missouri State’s pass vs. Arkansas State’s secondary.
- Jacob Clark (MOST QB, 2,895 pass yds, 16 TD) vs. Avante Dickerson (ARST CB, All-Sun Belt): Clark’s arm (67.2% comp.) tests Dickerson’s coverage (2 INT); Bears average 278 pass yds/gm. Edge: Clark—projected 280+ yds.
- Shomari Lawrence (MOST RB, 964 rush yds, 8 TD) vs. Javante Mackey (ARST LB, Q): Lawrence’s vision (5.2 YPC) exploits Mackey’s gaps if sidelined; Red Wolves yield 4.2 YPC. Edge: Lawrence—over 90 rush yds.
- Corey Rucker (ARST WR, 536 rec yds, 5 TD) vs. J. Dunbar (MOST CB, 2 INT): Rucker’s routes (14.5 YPC) vs. Dunbar’s picks; Bears allow 220 pass yds/gm. Edge: Rucker—over 70 rec yds.
- Kenyon Clay (ARST RB, 712 yds, 7 TD) vs. Missouri State Front: Clay’s burst (4.8 YPC) vs. Bears’ run D (3.8 YPC allowed); Cross out boosts carries. Edge: Even—Clay 100+ yds projected.
Bonus Watch: Jmariyae Robinson (MOST WR, 536 yds) targets Arkansas State’s depleted secondary.
Series History
Arkansas State leads 3-1 all-time (.750 win rate), with blowouts common (avg. margin 28.5 for winners). Last meeting: 2015 Arkansas State 70-7. Missouri State’s lone win: 1998 28-24. Neutral-site: N/A. Avg. score: 36.3-16.0 (ARST); overs in 2/4.
Last 4 Head-to-Head Meetings:
| Date | Result | Key Notes |
| Sep. 19, 2015 | ARST 70-7 MOST | Red Wolves rush for 312 yds |
| Sep. 19, 1998 | MOST 28-24 ARST | Bears rally in 4th |
| Nov. 8, 1997 | ARST 35-27 MOST | High-scoring shootout |
| Oct. 26, 1991 | ARST 37-20 MOST | Hens dominate early |
- Trend: ARST 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS. Overs in 50%; ARST 2-0 at home.
Betting Trends
- Missouri State: 6-6 ATS (50%); 3-3 ATS as fave (50%). 7-5 O/U; overs in 4/6 road/neutral. 0-0 ATS in FBS bowls.
- Arkansas State: 5-7 ATS (41.7%); 2-4 ATS as dog (33.3%). 6-6 O/U; overs in 5/7 Sun Belt games. 4-8 ATS in bowls.
- Head-to-Head: ARST 2-2 ATS last 4; avg. total 52.3 (under trend).
- Public/Sharp: 55% bets on Missouri State ML (52% handle); sharps on ARST +2.5 (59% handle). Bowl overs hit 58% for CUSA teams.
Historical Betting Results
In 4 prior meetings, Arkansas State is 2-2 ATS (.500); Missouri State 1-3 as underdog. Bowls for programs: Missouri State N/A (FBS debut); Arkansas State 4-8 SU/ATS (33.3%). CUSA vs. Sun Belt bowls: Sun Belt 19-13 ATS (59.4%), avg. total 54.1 (over 58%). Last 10 neutral G5 vs. G5: 5-5 O/U (50% over).
Game Odds
Missouri State Bears 54.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves – 1.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Wednesday, December 17, 2025
