Tip-off: 9:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM PT
Venue: Footprint Center (PHX Arena), Phoenix, Arizona (Capacity: ~18,000)
Broadcast: ESPN2 / Disney+ streaming
Injury Report
New York Liberty:
Breanna Stewart – Sprained left MCL, playing through it but not at 100%.
Rest of roster healthy.
Phoenix Mercury:
No major injuries reported.
Key Player Matchups
Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) vs. Liberty Frontcourt
Thomas has been a do-it-all force (15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 9.2 APG).
Kahleah Copper (Mercury) vs. Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)
Copper averaging 16.1 PPG over last 10; Ionescu must bounce back after a poor Game 2 showing.
Breanna Stewart (Liberty) vs. Satou Sabally (Mercury)
Stewart’s health is the X-factor; Sabally punished New York in Game 2’s inverted pick-and-roll sets.
Recent Team Form
Phoenix Mercury (27–17, 4th seed, Western Conference)
Last 5: W–L–L–L–L
Home record: 15–7
Defense: 80.1 PPG allowed, 42.7% opponent FG
New York Liberty (27–17, 5th seed, Eastern Conference)
Last 5: L–W–W–W–W
Road record: 10–12
Offense: 9.5 made 3-pointers per game (1.6 more than Phoenix allows)
Series History
2025 Playoffs First Round: Series tied 1–1.
Game 1: Liberty win.
Game 2: Mercury win 86–60 at Barclays Center.
Winner advances to face the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals.
Betting Trends
Phoenix Mercury:
4–1 ATS in last 5 home playoff games.
Under in 3 of last 4 games.
Won 3 of last 4 home meetings vs. Liberty.
New York Liberty:
2–5 ATS in last 7 road playoff games.
Under in 5 of last 7 overall.
Historical Betting Results
Mercury: Reliable ATS at home in postseason; defense-driven unders common.
Liberty: Struggled ATS on the road in playoffs; offense inconsistent when Stewart is limited.
Head-to-Head: Phoenix has historically had the edge at home.
GAME ODDS
New York Liberty 156
Phoenix Mercury – 2.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, September 18, 2025
