Footprint Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Tip‑Off: 7:00 PM MST / 7:00 PM PDT / 10:00 PM ET
Broadcast: ESPN+, Mercury Live, Bally Sports North
INJURY REPORT
Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa Collier — Probable (ankle soreness)
Kayla McBride — Probable (hip tightness)
Diamond Miller — Questionable (knee inflammation)
Alanna Smith — Out (wrist)
Phoenix Mercury
Diana Taurasi — Questionable (hamstring)
Brittney Griner — Out (foot surgery)
Sug Sutton — Probable (ankle)
Rebecca Allen — Out (hand)
Phoenix remains severely shorthanded in the frontcourt without Griner, while Minnesota is mostly intact aside from Miller’s uncertainty.
TEAM FORM & CONTEXT
MINNESOTA LYNX (6–2)
Minnesota is one of the hottest teams in the league, powered by:
Napheesa Collier’s MVP‑level production
A top‑3 defense
Elite rebounding margin
Improved spacing and ball movement
Last 5 Games: 4–1 Average Margin: +7.8
The Lynx are winning with physicality, discipline, and consistent half‑court execution.
PHOENIX MERCURY (2–7)
Phoenix is struggling badly without Griner and with Taurasi in and out of the lineup. Issues include:
Bottom‑3 defensive rating
Poor rim protection
Inconsistent guard play
Heavy reliance on perimeter jumpers
Last 5 Games: 1–4 Average Margin: ‑10.4
The Mercury are competitive in spurts but lack interior presence and late‑game scoring reliability.
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Napheesa Collier (MIN) vs. Brianna Turner (PHX)
Collier is playing at an MVP level — 23.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG, elite two‑way impact. Turner is a strong defender but undersized against Collier’s strength and footwork.
Advantage: Lynx (significant)
Kayla McBride (MIN) vs. Sophie Cunningham (PHX)
McBride’s shooting and off‑ball movement vs. Cunningham’s physicality and streaky scoring. If McBride is healthy, she stretches Phoenix’s defense thin.
Advantage: Lynx
Courtney Williams (MIN) vs. Sug Sutton (PHX)
Williams’ mid‑range mastery and veteran savvy vs. Sutton’s speed and playmaking. Sutton can win the pace battle, but Williams controls the half‑court.
Advantage: Lynx (slight)
Diamond Miller (MIN, if active) vs. Kahleah Copper (PHX)
Copper is Phoenix’s best player — explosive, aggressive, and capable of 25+ on any night. If Miller plays, this is a marquee matchup. If not, Copper has a major edge.
Advantage: Mercury (if Miller sits)
SERIES HISTORY
All‑time: Phoenix leads 43–38
Last season: Minnesota won 2 of 3
At Footprint Center: Mercury have won 5 of last 7
Average margin last 5 meetings: Lynx +2.4
Minnesota has closed the gap in recent years, especially with Collier’s rise.
BETTING TRENDS
Minnesota Lynx
6–2 ATS this season
Under is 5–3
4–1 ATS in last 5 road games
5–1 in games decided by 6+ points
Phoenix Mercury
2–7 ATS this season
Over is 6–3
1–4 ATS in last 5 home games
0–5 when allowing 80+ points
Head‑to‑Head Trends
Road team is 4–1 ATS in last 5
Under is 3–1 in last 4
Minnesota has covered 4 of last 6 vs. Phoenix
TACTICAL BREAKDOWN
Minnesota Path to Victory
Feed Collier early and often
Dominate the glass (especially offensive boards)
Force Phoenix into contested jumpers
Win the turnover battle
Control pace and limit transition threes
Phoenix Path to Victory
Copper must score 25+
Hit 10+ threes
Push tempo to avoid Minnesota’s set defense
Get unexpected scoring from bench (Hartley, Onyenwere)
Keep Collier off the free‑throw line
GAME ODDS
Minnesota Lynx – 2
Phoenix Mercury 167.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, May 31, 2026
