Tip‑off: 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT Venue: Climate Pledge Arena — Seattle, Washington Broadcast: League Pass / Local RSNs
Venue Profile — Climate Pledge Arena
- Capacity: ~17,100
- Court Environment: Fast floor, strong shooting sightlines, and one of the league’s loudest home atmospheres.
- Home‑court tendencies: Seattle typically plays with more defensive intensity at home; their pace increases by ~3 possessions per game at CPA.
- Travel factor: Connecticut is on a West Coast swing and historically struggles in late‑tip road games.
Injury Report
Connecticut Sun
- F Alyssa Thomas — Questionable (shoulder soreness)
- G Tiffany Hayes — Out (knee)
- C Brionna Jones — Probable (conditioning)
- G Tyasha Harris — Probable (ankle)
Seattle Storm
- G Jewell Loyd — Probable (wrist)
- F Nneka Ogwumike — Questionable (hamstring tightness)
- C Mercedes Russell — Out (back)
- G Sami Whitcomb — Probable (illness)
Impact:
- Connecticut’s offense collapses without Alyssa Thomas’ playmaking; her availability is the single biggest variable in this matchup.
- Seattle’s frontcourt depth is thin without Russell and possibly Ogwumike, giving Connecticut a potential interior advantage.
- Both teams enter with compromised rotations, increasing volatility.
Team Form & Statistical Profile
Connecticut Sun (0–5)
Last 5 Games: L–L–L–L–L Offensive Rating: 11th in WNBA; 74.8 PPG Defensive Rating: Middle tier, but collapsing late in games Identity:
- Physical, defensive‑first team
- Offense heavily dependent on Thomas’ creation
- Struggling with turnovers and half‑court spacing
Recent Trends:
- Sun are –42 in second halves this season
- Shooting just 28.4% from three
- Opponents averaging 19.2 points off turnovers vs. Connecticut
Seattle Storm (1–3)
Last 4 Games: L–L–W–L Offensive Rating: 9th; 78.3 PPG Defensive Rating: Inconsistent, especially in pick‑and‑roll coverage Identity:
- Loyd‑centric scoring
- When Ogwumike plays, Seattle becomes a strong mid‑range and interior scoring team
- Perimeter defense improving but still streaky
Recent Trends:
- Seattle is +15 in rebounding over last two games
- Loyd averaging 25.0 PPG in her last two
- Storm allowing 41% from three — a potential relief point for Connecticut’s struggling shooters
Key Player Matchups
1. Jewell Loyd (SEA) vs. DiJonai Carrington (CON)
- Loyd is Seattle’s offensive engine; she’s averaging elite shot volume and efficiency at home.
- Carrington’s defensive physicality is Connecticut’s best counter, but she risks foul trouble.
- If Loyd gets downhill early, Seattle’s offense opens dramatically.
Edge: Seattle, due to Loyd’s scoring versatility.
2. Nneka Ogwumike (SEA) vs. Brionna Jones (CON)
(Assuming Ogwumike plays)
- Ogwumike’s mobility and mid‑range game challenge Jones’ foot speed.
- Jones’ strength and post scoring can punish Seattle’s thin interior rotation.
- If Ogwumike sits, this matchup becomes a major Connecticut advantage.
Edge: Even, but swings heavily depending on Ogwumike’s status.
3. Alyssa Thomas (CON) vs. Ezi Magbegor (SEA)
- Thomas’ playmaking and physicality vs. Magbegor’s length and rim protection is the tactical centerpiece.
- If Thomas is limited, Connecticut’s offense becomes stagnant.
- Magbegor’s ability to switch onto guards could disrupt Connecticut’s pick‑and‑roll actions.
Edge: Seattle, if Thomas is not fully healthy.
Series History
- 2025 Season: Seattle won the season series 2–1
- Last 10 meetings: Seattle leads 6–4
- At Climate Pledge Arena: Seattle has won 4 straight vs. Connecticut
Trend: Seattle’s home‑court advantage has consistently neutralized Connecticut’s physical style.
Wagering Trends
Against the Spread (ATS)
- Connecticut: 0–5 ATS
- Seattle: 1–3 ATS
- Connecticut on the road: 0–2 ATS
- Seattle at home: 1–1 ATS
Totals (O/U)
- Connecticut games: 4–1 to the Under
- Seattle games: 3–1 to the Under
- Combined trend: 7 of 9 games involving these teams have gone Under
Situational Trends
- Connecticut is 1–7 SU in last eight West Coast games
- Seattle is 5–1 SU in last six home games vs. Connecticut
- Loyd points overs have hit in 3 straight
GAME ODDS
Connecticut Sun 167
Seattle Storm – 3
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, May 19, 2026
