Race Overview

The San Gabriel Stakes is a Grade III turf stakes race for 3-year-olds and upward, contested over 1 1/8 miles with a $100,000 purse. This event is Race 9 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at approximately 3:16 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.

Santa Anita’s turf course is known for its firm footing in dry conditions, with the rail set at 0 feet for this meet. Following heavy rains earlier in the week that postponed the original opening day, track conditions for the turf are expected to be good to firm by race time, as the surface has had time to dry and be maintained. However, if any residual moisture persists, it could yield slightly, favoring horses with proven soft-ground form.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, calls for partly cloudy skies with highs around 65°F and lows near 42°F. Winds will be light from the north at 2-8 mph, with humidity around 41% and minimal chance of precipitation (few clouds expected). These mild, dry conditions should promote fair racing, but the cooler temperatures may slightly favor horses with stamina or those accustomed to California winter turf. Attendees should dress in layers for the variable afternoon breeze.

Field Analysis

Eleven horses are entered in this competitive Grade III, blending domestic runners and imports with a mix of running styles. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (described based on form narratives; most recent highlighted), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis draws from pedigree, running styles, speed figures (where noted), and trainer notes. Weights range from 121-125 lbs, with allowances for non-winners.

Twirling Point (PP 1, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Mirco Demuro (international veteran with 19% win rate in U.S. stakes; tactical rider).

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (22% win rate in graded turf; develops closers).

Recent Finishes: Fifth in a 1 3/8-mile turf allowance optional claimer at Del Mar (most recent); fifth in the 1 1/2-mile Colonial Cup Stakes at Colonial Downs prior; won last year’s Jersey Derby.

Analysis: 4-year-old gelding by Twirling Candy out of Kitten’s Point; stalking style, mid-pack early before late move. Strengths: Inside post saves ground; improving Beyers suit the distance. Weaknesses: Struggled in higher-class races; needs pace to close. Prospects: Longshot for exotics; could rally if frontrunners tire.

Mondego (GB) (PP 2, ML 8/1)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (top Santa Anita rider with 25% win rate; excels on turf).

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (20% in stakes; handles imports well).

Recent Finishes: Seventh in the 1 1/2-mile Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) at Del Mar (most recent); fourth in the 1 1/4-mile John Henry Turf Championship (G2) at Santa Anita; fifth in the 1 3/8-mile Del Mar Handicap (G2).

Analysis: 5-year-old gelding by Lope de Vega out of Free Rein; mid-pack stalker. Strengths: Competitive in mid-level stakes; adaptable to firm turf. Weaknesses: Struggled to sustain rallies lately; class drop needed. Prospects: Value contender; could factor with a clean trip.

Endlessly (PP 3, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (22% win rate at Santa Anita; aggressive on closers).

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (as above).

Recent Finishes: Winless in six starts over 18 months; ninth in Kentucky Derby (G1); mixed turf results this year; won El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) as sophomore.

Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Oscar Performance out of Dream Fuhrever; closer style. Strengths: Juvenile turf success; blinkers off may sharpen focus. Weaknesses: Recent struggles; needs to rediscover form. Prospects: Upside if pace sets up; solid for minors.

Stay Hot (PP 4, ML 4/1)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; big-race specialist).

Trainer: Peter Eurton (18% in turf routes; consistent barn).

Recent Finishes: Sixth in the 1 1/16-mile Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) at Del Mar (most recent); second in John Henry Turf Championship (G2) and Del Mar Handicap (G2); won Texas Turf Classic.

Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Summer Front out of Etsu; stalker-closer. Strengths: Consistent in graded turf; benefits from hot pace. Weaknesses: Wins sparingly; mid-draw flexible but needs luck. Prospects: Strong win threat; pace setup favors him.

St Anthony (PP 5, ML 5/1)

Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (22% win rate; local leader).

Trainer: Neil Drysdale (veteran with 15% in stakes; patient developer).

Recent Finishes: Well-traveled in 28-race career; versatile but infrequent winner.

Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Noble Mission out of Amnesia; mid-pack stalker. Strengths: Adaptable style; playable in exotics. Weaknesses: Distance/class questions; outer horses challenge. Prospects: Top contender; consistency in mix.

Nesso’s Lastharrah (PP 6, ML 30/1)

Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (14% win rate; aggressive early).

Trainer: Peter Eurton (as above).

Recent Finishes: Fifth in Eddie D Stakes (stakes debut); fifth in Lure Stakes at Santa Anita.

Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Sharp Azteca out of Nesso; front-runner/presser. Strengths: Early speed; could wire if loose. Weaknesses: Stakes unproven; likely fades in deep field. Prospects: Longshot for minor if uncontested.

Suchet (FR) (PP 7, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; strong closer).

Trainer: John W. Sadler (20% in stakes; import specialist).

Recent Finishes: Allowance win at Del Mar seven weeks ago; promise in four U.S. starts.

Analysis: 4-year-old gelding by Cloth of Stars out of Decize; mid-pack closer. Strengths: Strong finish on turf; post allows flexibility. Weaknesses: Needs honest pace; second-tier form. Prospects: Live win candidate in open race.

Astronomer (PP 8, ML 9/2)

Jockey: Antonio Fresu (18% win rate; rising star).

Trainer: Simon Callaghan (high-percentage with 19% in turf; consistent).

Recent Finishes: Winless in 2025 but solid in graded efforts.

Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Air Force Blue out of Qaraaba; stalker near pace. Strengths: Suited to distance; favorite for reason. Weaknesses: No recent wins; needs to pounce. Prospects: Top pick; logical in balanced field.

Cabo Spirit (PP 9, ML 8/1)

Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; tactical).

Trainer: George Papaprodromou (16% off layoffs; value barn).

Recent Finishes: Gate-to-wire wins like American Stakes in April; second off layoff.

Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Pioneerof the Nile out of Fancy Day; frontrunner. Strengths: Tough with easy lead; jockey knows course. Weaknesses: Post requires push; vulnerable if pressed. Prospects: Dangerous if dictates terms.

Flashiest (PP 10, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Armando Ayuso (journeyman with 12% win rate; handles longshots).

Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% with imports; steady).

Recent Finishes: Hit board in stakes before; steady grinder.

Analysis: 7-year-old gelding by Mizzen Mast out of Nothing to Wear; mid-pack closer. Strengths: Exotic potential if favorites falter. Weaknesses: Outer post risks wide trip; underdog. Prospects: Bomber for supers.

Nineeleventurbo (PP 11, ML 10/1)

Jockey: Hector I. Berrios (up-and-comer with 14% win rate; hustles early).

Trainer: Neil Drysdale (as above).

Recent Finishes: Winless since 2023; placed in graded spots.

Analysis: 8-year-old gelding by More Than Ready out of Rosalie Road; front-runner/presser. Strengths: Graded experience; capable on day. Weaknesses: Tough post; needs to clear early. Prospects: Mid-odds value; could factor if sits close.

Race Overview

The La Brea Stakes is a Grade I dirt stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, contested over 7 furlongs with a $300,000 purse. This prestigious event is Race 8 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 2:30 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.

Santa Anita’s main dirt track is a one-mile oval, and this sprint features a single turn. Following heavy rains that led to the postponement of the original opening day from December 26 to December 28, track conditions for the dirt are expected to be fast, as the surface has had time to dry and be maintained. However, if any lingering moisture or afternoon showers occur, it could result in a good or sloppy track, potentially benefiting horses with proven off-track ability.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, indicates partly cloudy skies with highs around 61-66°F and lows near 43°F. Winds will be light at 3-6 mph from variable directions, with humidity around 41% and a low 20% chance of isolated showers in the afternoon (less than 0.1 inches expected). These mild, dry conditions follow a wet week, but should allow for optimal racing without major disruptions. Bettors should note that cooler temperatures and any residual dampness could favor horses with forward speed or those accustomed to California winter meets. Attendees are advised to wear layers for the variable weather.

Field Analysis

Eleven fillies are entered in this wide-open Grade I sprint, showcasing a mix of California-based talent and shippers. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures where available, most recent on the right; e.g., 127 means 1st, 2nd, 7th), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided as betting guides. Analysis incorporates pedigree, speed figures (from last race where noted), owners, breeders, and available form notes. All are 3-year-old fillies carrying 120 lbs unless noted.

Simply Joking (PP 1, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (versatile rider with 18% win rate; strong on closers).

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (20% win rate in stakes; develops graded performers).

Owner: Berkels0813, CMNWLTH, Grantley Acres & Conner, R. Breeder: Barlar, LLC.

Recent Finishes: 242 (2nd in G3 Bayakoa at Del Mar last out, 4th prior, 2nd in Kentucky Oaks earlier).

Analysis: By Practical Joke out of a sprint-oriented dam; last speed figure 103. Strengths: Rail draw for ground-saving trip; flashed talent in Kentucky Oaks and recent G3 runner-up against elders. Weaknesses: Inconsistent at graded level; may need pace help to close on soft dirt. Prospects: Longshot value; could rally for a minor share if leaders duel.

So There She Was (PP 2, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Antonio Fresu (up-and-coming with 16% win rate; tactical on speed types).

Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume at 15% wins; California specialist).

Owner: Great Friends Stables, Tropical Racing & Davis, M. Breeder: Grantley Acres.

Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last speed figure 103.

Analysis: By Munnings, known for sprint speed. Strengths: Inside post to stalk; barn’s local edge. Weaknesses: Limited graded form; outclassed on paper. Prospects: Mid-odds exotic filler; might press early but fade late.

Five G (PP 3, ML 7/2)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; wins major stakes).

Trainer: George Weaver (18% in routes; ships well).

Owner: Gatsas Stables. Breeder: Gatsas Stable LLC. Weight: 122 lbs.

Recent Finishes: 121 (1st in G3 Gulfstream Park Oaks last out on Mar 29, prior wins).

Analysis: By Vekoma; last figure 112. Strengths: Stakes winner returning fresh; sharp works (4f in :49); 7f suits pedigree. Weaknesses: Long layoff; needs to prove fitness. Prospects: Strong shipper; could dominate if ready, continuing non-California upset trend.

Artisma (PP 4, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (local with 14% win rate; aggressive).

Trainer: Richard Baltas (17% in sprints; turf-to-dirt switches).

Owner: McCauley, Nathan, Nguyen, Calvin & Tran, Joey C. Breeder: Sun Valley Farm.

Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 111.

Analysis: By Munnings. Strengths: Consistent speed; mid-draw flexible. Weaknesses: Stakes unproven; class test. Prospects: Value for exotics; could factor if pace sets up.

Usha (PP 5, ML 9/2)

Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (top California rider with 22% win rate).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (30% in graded stakes; dominates La Brea with 9 prior wins).

Owner: Pegram, Michael E., Watson, Karl & Weitman, Paul. Breeder: Esler & Raine.

Recent Finishes: 117 (1st in allowance prior, 1st maiden by 11+ lengths, 7th in G2 Raven Run last out Oct 18).

Analysis: By Tiz the Law; last figure 107. Strengths: Explosive maiden/allowance wins; Baffert’s trio edge. Weaknesses: Faded in last stakes; mid-post traffic risk. Prospects: Live contender; rebound potential in sprint.

Brilliantly (PP 6, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (25% win rate; tactical master).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).

Owner: Pegram, Michael E., Watson, Karl & Weitman, Paul. Breeder: Dr. Hartmut H. Malluche & Silesia Farm.

Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 108.

Analysis: By Uncle Mo. Strengths: Pedigree for class; jockey/trainer hot. Weaknesses: Spots experience to rivals; needs clean trip. Prospects: Upside play; could improve for Baffert’s 10th win.

Schilflied (PP 7, ML 50/1)

Jockey: Tyler Baze (14% win rate; veteran).

Trainer: Patrick Gallagher (12% in stakes; patient developer).

Owner: TCK USA. Breeder: Spendthrift Farm, LLC.

Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 88 (low).

Analysis: By Mendelssohn. Strengths: Longshot spark possible. Weaknesses: Outclassed; poor figures. Prospects: Bomber for supers; unlikely.

Her Laugh (PP 8, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (21% win rate; strong finisher).

Trainer: Riley Mott (emerging at 16%; stakes hitter).

Owner: Grantley Acres, Pantofel Stable, Wachtel Stable & Mott. Breeder: Grantley Acres.

Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 119 (high).

Analysis: By Practical Joke. Strengths: Top figure; closing kick. Weaknesses: Outer post; adapts to dirt? Prospects: Contender; value if pace hot.

Formula Rossa (PP 9, ML 3/1)

Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; 5-time La Brea winner).

Trainer: Mark Glatt (19% off layoffs; sharp workers).

Owner: Muir Hut Stables LLC. Breeder: Greathouse Equine, LLC & Glencrest Farm, LLC.

Recent Finishes: 12 (1st in Del Mar allowance Aug 3 by romp, 2nd in G3 Rancho Bernardo vs. elders last out).

Analysis: By Vekoma; last figure 116. Strengths: Freshened with bullet works; faced tough older (Sweet Azteca); jockey’s race affinity. Weaknesses: Layoff; wide post. Prospects: Favorite for good reason; future star potential.

Magnificat (PP 10, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Mirco Demuro (international with 19% U.S. wins).

Trainer: Richard E. Mandella (Hall of Famer at 18%; patient).

Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC. Breeder: Spendthrift Farm, LLC.

Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 111.

Analysis: By Omaha Beach. Strengths: Pedigree upside; barn’s class. Weaknesses: Wide draw; inconsistent. Prospects: Longshot rally possible.

Silent Law (PP 11, ML 10/1)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; great on Baffert runners).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).

Owner: CSLR Racing Partners LLC. Breeder: Newstead Corp.

Recent Finishes: 2 (2nd/yielding after setting pace in G3 Chillingworth Oct 4).

Analysis: By Tiz the Law; last figure 118. Strengths: Speed from outside; Baffert’s history. Weaknesses: Post forces wide; pace pressure. Prospects: Tactical threat; could wire if uncontested.

Race Overview

The Laffit Pincay, Jr. Stakes is a Grade II dirt stakes race for 3-year-olds and up, contested over 1 1/16 miles with a $200,000 purse. Named in honor of the Hall of Fame jockey, this event is Race 6 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at approximately 1:30 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.

Santa Anita’s main dirt track is a one-mile oval, and this race features two turns. Following heavy rains that postponed the original opening day from December 26, the track conditions for December 28 are expected to be fast on dirt, as the surface drains well and crews have prepared it accordingly. However, if afternoon showers materialize, it could turn sloppy or muddy, favoring horses with wet-track pedigree or form.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, predicts mostly cloudy skies with highs of 63-66°F and lows around 43°F. Winds will be light from the south at 5-10 mph, with a 60% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms, potentially adding 0.25-0.5 inches of rain. Humidity will hover around 70%, and while the morning should be dry, any precipitation could impact later races. This follows a wet week, so the ground may remain soft. Bettors should favor horses proven in off conditions, and attendees are advised to bring rain gear and layers for the cool, damp day.

Field Analysis

Seven horses are entered in this Grade II test, featuring a clash of top Baffert trainees. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position (PP), recent finishes (form figures, most recent on the right; e.g., 121 means 1st, 2nd, 1st), jockey, trainer, strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are listed. Analysis includes pedigree, speed figures (Beyer where available), and notes. All carry 122-124 lbs.

Nysos (PP 1, ML 3/5)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (leading rider with 25% win rate at Santa Anita; excels in big races).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer with 30% win rate in graded stakes; dominates dirt routes).

Recent Finishes: 112 (1st in Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov 1 at Del Mar, 1st in San Diego H July, 2nd in Churchill Downs S May 3; Beyers: 105+).

Analysis: 4YO colt by Nyquist out of Zetta Z (Bernardini mare); $550,000 yearling. Strengths: Dominant closer with tactical speed; proven at Grade 1 level; rail post saves ground. Weaknesses: Returning from short layoff; bruised hoof scratched him from Pacific Classic earlier. Prospects: Heavy favorite with class edge; should control if fit, targeting bigger goals in 2026.

Vodka Vodka (PP 2, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (veteran with 15% win rate; knows Santa Anita well).

Trainer: Vladimir Cerin (solid 18% win rate in allowances; targets California races).

Recent Finishes: 345 (3rd in allowance at Del Mar Nov, 4th in optional claimer Oct, 5th prior; mid-90s Beyers).

Analysis: 4YO colt by Stay Thirsty out of Margie’s Minute; California-bred. Strengths: Inside speed; could stalk leaders. Weaknesses: Lacks stakes form; class rise is steep. Prospects: Longshot for pace pressure; minor award possible if frontrunners duel.

Nevada Beach (PP 3, ML 2/1)

Jockey: Juan Hernandez (aggressive with 22% win rate; strong on Baffert horses).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above; master with routers).

Recent Finishes: 171 (1st in Native Diver G3 Nov 22 at Del Mar, 7th in BC Classic Nov 1, 1st in Goodwood G1 Sept 27; Beyers: 101+).

Analysis: 3YO colt by Omaha Beach out of Morrow Cove (Yes It’s True mare). Strengths: Versatile stalker; multiple G1/G3 wins; loves Santa Anita. Weaknesses: Wide post may force energy use; rebounded from BC dud. Prospects: Top contender to duel stablemate; could wire if loose.

Cornishman (PP 4, ML 8/1)

Jockey: Ricky Gonzalez (journeyman with 12% win rate; handles longshots).

Trainer: Dan McFarlane (15% win rate; upset specialist).

Recent Finishes: 121 (1st in Cornhusker G3 July 5 at Prairie Meadows, 2nd in prep June, 1st allowance prior; Beyers: 98+).

Analysis: 4YO gelding by Curlin out of Penwith (Bernardini mare). Strengths: Proven stayer; wide-trip grinder. Weaknesses: Ships from Midwest; adapts to California dirt? Prospects: Value upsetter if pace sets up; strong closer.

British Isles (PP 5, ML 5/1)

Jockey: Diego Herrera (up-and-comer with 16% win rate; tactical).

Trainer: Richard Baltas (18% in routes; turf-to-dirt expert).

Recent Finishes: 262 (2nd in Native Diver G3 Nov 22, 6th turf stakes Oct, 2nd allowance prior; Beyers: 99).

Analysis: 4YO gelding by Justify out of turf-oriented dam. Strengths: Improving on dirt; late kick. Weaknesses: Turf background; mid-pack draw. Prospects: Live threat off recent near-miss; could rally if speed falters.

Indispensable (PP 6, ML 10/1)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (Hall of Famer with 23% win rate; great closer).

Trainer: John Sadler (20% in stakes; develops improvers).

Recent Finishes: 131 (1st allowance Nov at Del Mar, 3rd stakes Oct, 1st prior; Beyers: 95+).

Analysis: 4YO colt with route pedigree. Strengths: Momentum from wins; jockey upgrade. Weaknesses: Class test; outer post risks. Prospects: Mid-odds value; could factor in exotics.

Bartholdy (PP 7, ML 12/1)

Jockey: Tyler Baze (versatile with 14% win rate; suits stretch-outs).

Trainer: Steve Knapp (15% allowances; sprinter specialist).

Recent Finishes: 121 (1st allowance Nov 30 at Del Mar 6.5f, 2nd prior, 1st sprint; Beyers: 97).

Analysis: 4YO gelding stretching from sprints. Strengths: Sharp form; upset potential. Weaknesses: Distance question; wide draw. Prospects: Bomber if adapts to route; underneath play.

Race Overview

The Mathis Mile Stakes is a Grade II turf stakes race for 3-year-old colts and geldings, run over 1 mile on the turf course. This event carries a $200,000 purse and is Race 5 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 1:05 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.

Santa Anita’s turf course is a downhill layout for sprints but flat for this one-turn mile, with the rail set at 0 feet. Following heavy rains earlier in the week that prompted a postponement of opening day from December 26, track conditions for December 28 are expected to be good to yielding on the turf, as maintenance crews have worked to drain and firm the surface. The dirt track should be fast, but any additional moisture could affect off-turf scenarios—though officials have indicated intent to keep stakes on grass.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, calls for mostly cloudy skies with a high of 63-65°F and lows around 43-44°F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, with a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, potentially bringing 0.25-0.5 inches of rain. This follows a wet week, so humidity will be high (around 70%), and any precipitation could soften the turf further. Bettors should watch for updates, as wet conditions may favor European imports or horses with proven soft-ground form. Attendees should prepare for cool, damp weather with layers and rain gear.

Field Analysis

Seven horses are entered in this competitive Grade II, with a mix of domestic and international talent. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures, most recent on the right; e.g., 123 means 1st, 2nd, 3rd in last three starts), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis incorporates pedigree, speed figures (e.g., Equibase or Beyer equivalents), and trainer notes. All carry 120-122 lbs, with allowances for non-winners.

Hiding in Honduras (PP 1, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Antonio Fresu (rising star with 18% win rate at Santa Anita; excels on turf routers).

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (strong 22% win rate in graded turf stakes; develops patient closers).

Recent Finishes: 243 (2nd in a Del Mar allowance two back, 4th in a Santa Anita optional claimer last out, 3rd prior at Belmont).

Analysis: This 3-year-old gelding (Equibase speed figure: 104) is by Dialed In out of La Moneda, with stamina-oriented breeding. Strengths: Inside post for ground-saving trip; sharp recent workouts (5f in 59.4 at Santa Anita). Weaknesses: Lacks graded experience; may need a hot pace to close into on potentially soft turf. Prospects: Value as a mid-pack stalker; could rally for a minor share if the leaders tire.

Tempus Volat (PP 2, ML 9/2)

Jockey: Mirco Demuro (international veteran with 20% win rate in U.S. stakes; tactical on speed types).

Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% win rate on turf; specializes in European-style routers).

Recent Finishes: 132 (1st in a Churchill allowance last out, 3rd in a Keeneland stakes two back, 2nd prior at Del Mar).

Analysis: 3-year-old colt (speed figure: 98) by Not This Time, with War Front influence for turf affinity. Strengths: Proven at the mile; carries 122 lbs as a stakes winner; adaptable to soft ground. Weaknesses: Inside draw may force early commitment; inconsistent in traffic. Prospects: Strong contender to press the pace; trainer notes he’s peaking for this spot.

Namaron (GER) (PP 3, ML 3/2)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (top Santa Anita rider with 25% win rate; master of turf trips).

Trainer: John W. Sadler (high 28% in graded stakes; excels with imports).

Recent Finishes: 211 (2nd overseas two back, 1st in Del Mar restricted stakes last out, 1st prior in Germany).

Analysis: German-bred 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 120) by Amaron, adding blinkers for focus. Strengths: Untapped potential; dominant in U.S. debut; loves soft turf per pedigree. Weaknesses: Class hike to Grade II; needs clean break from mid-post. Prospects: Morning-line favorite with upside; could dominate if he handles the pace.

Geometry (PP 4, ML 12/1)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (Hall of Famer with 23% win rate; great on closers).

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (dual entry here; 20% in turf miles).

Recent Finishes: 453 (4th last out at Aqueduct, 5th two back at Belmont, 3rd prior at Saratoga).

Analysis: 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 97) by Twirling Candy out of Vanishing. Strengths: Removing blinkers for sharper focus; pedigree suits mile. Weaknesses: Recent form dip; outer post risks wide trip on soft ground. Prospects: Longshot with barnmate support; could surprise in exotics if pace melts.

Friendly Confines (PP 5, ML 7/2)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; wins big turf stakes).

Trainer: Richard Baltas (18% on turf; targets California meets).

Recent Finishes: 122 (1st two back in allowance, 2nd last out in stakes prep, 2nd prior).

Analysis: 3-year-old colt (speed figure: 96) by Twirling Candy, half to graded placers. Strengths: Consistent form; jockey upgrade; tactical speed for any ground. Weaknesses: Mid-field draw may require energy early. Prospects: Live second choice; strong closing kick makes him a win threat.

Lyle The Crocodile (IRE) (PP 6, ML 12/1)

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (22% win rate at Santa Anita; aggressive on imports).

Trainer: Philip D’Amato (top turf trainer at 24%; masters European shippers).

Recent Finishes: 314 (3rd last out at Del Mar, 1st two back in Ireland, 4th prior overseas).

Analysis: Irish-bred 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 107) by Inns of Court. Strengths: Barn’s success with similar types; soft turf suits pedigree. Weaknesses: Wide post could lead to ground loss; adapting to U.S. style. Prospects: Upset potential if he settles early; value for underneath spots.

Maaz (FR) (PP 7, ML 5/1)

Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (versatile with 21% win rate; strong finisher).

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (19% in stakes; develops late bloomers).

Recent Finishes: 231 (2nd last out in allowance, 3rd two back in graded try, 1st prior in France).

Analysis: French-bred 3-year-old gelding (speed figure: 94) by Galiway. Strengths: Closing style; Eclipse Thoroughbreds ownership signals confidence. Weaknesses: Outermost post risks wide rally on tiring turf. Prospects: Solid mid-odds play; could close for win if pace is hot.

Race Overview

The Oaklawn Anywhere Overnight Stakes is a $135,000 stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, run over 6 furlongs on the dirt track. This sprint event is Race 8 on a 10-race card at Oaklawn Park, located at 2705 Central Ave, Hot Springs, AR 71901. The race is set to go off at 3:52 PM CT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 12:30 PM CT.

Oaklawn’s dirt track is a one-mile oval known for its fair surface and ability to handle various weather conditions, though winter racing can sometimes lead to sealed or sloppy tracks if precipitation occurs. Given the forecast, track conditions are expected to be fast, as no significant rainfall is anticipated, and temperatures will remain cool without freezing overnight. However, if any light showers develop, the surface could turn good or muddy, favoring horses with proven wet-track form.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Hot Springs, AR, on December 28, 2025, indicates cool and mostly dry conditions typical for late December. Expect partly cloudy skies with highs around 48-51°F and lows dipping to 35-37°F. Winds will be light from the south at 5-10 mph, with a 20-30% chance of scattered showers in the afternoon, though accumulation is expected to be minimal (less than 0.1 inches). These conditions should not significantly impact the track, but bettors should monitor updates for any unexpected moisture that could soften the surface. Warm clothing is recommended for attendees, as the wind chill may make it feel closer to 40°F during the later races.

Field Analysis

Ten fillies are entered in this 3YO-only sprint, making for a competitive field with a mix of speed and closers. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures, where the rightmost digit is the most recent race; 1=1st, 2=2nd, etc., 0=10th or worse), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided as initial betting guides. Analysis incorporates recent form, official ratings (OR), pedigree, and trainer/jockey stats where applicable. All weights are around 122-124 lbs with allowances.

Caliente Star (PP 1, ML 8/1)

Jockey: Francisco Arrieta (consistent rider with a 15% win rate at Oaklawn; excels on speed horses from inside posts).

Trainer: Tammy Hornsby (mid-level trainer with 12% win rate in sprints; focuses on Arkansas-breds).

Recent Finishes: 204 (2nd three back, 0th two back, 4th last out; suggests inconsistent but capable of contending in allowances).

Analysis: This 3YO filly (OR 84) has shown early speed in recent starts, with a solid pedigree for dirt sprints. Strengths: Rail draw allows ground-saving trip; best efforts when leading. Weaknesses: Faded late in last two; lower OR indicates class test. Prospects: Could press the pace early and hold for a share if uncontested; fair value at mid-odds.

Baytown Butterfly (PP 2, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez (versatile with 18% win rate; good at rating horses).

Trainer: Peter Miller (California shipper with 20% win rate in stakes; strong with sprinters).

Recent Finishes: 45 (4th two back, 5th last out; steady but non-threatening in similar company).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 80) with sprint pedigree but limited upside. Strengths: Inside post for stalking; ships well. Weaknesses: Lower speed figures; outclassed here. Prospects: Longshot for exotics if pace collapses; unlikely winner.

Decadent (PP 3, ML 5/2)

Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel (aggressive rider with 14% win rate; suits frontrunners).

Trainer: Kenneth McPeek (top conditioner at 22% wins; excels with developing fillies).

Recent Finishes: 31 (3rd two back, 1st last out; broke maiden impressively, then placed in allowance).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 97) with improving form and strong dirt pedigree. Strengths: Tactical speed; high OR suggests class edge. Weaknesses: Limited experience; wide if pressed early. Prospects: Strong contender; could wire if loose on lead.

Foie Gras (PP 4, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. (Oaklawn leading rider with 25% win rate; master tactician).

Trainer: Michael Maker (versatile at 19% wins; good with turf-to-dirt switches).

Recent Finishes: 32 (3rd two back, 2nd last out; consistent placer in stakes preps).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 98) by Volatile, with stamina for the distance. Strengths: Closing kick; jockey/trainer combo hot. Weaknesses: Needs pace to close into; mid-pack draw. Prospects: Live at fair odds; top pick for upset if speed duels.

Going Steady (PP 5, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (finesse rider with 16% win rate; good on closers).

Trainer: Robert Medina (solid 15% in allowances; develops consistent types).

Recent Finishes: 32 (similar to above; placed in recent sprints).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 91) with even running style. Strengths: Reliable for minors; dirt affinity. Weaknesses: Lacks wow factor; higher odds reflect ceiling. Prospects: Exotic filler; could sneak into tri if favorites falter.

Modo (PP 6, ML 8/5)

Jockey: Luis Saez (elite rider with 24% win rate; wins big pots).

Trainer: Thomas Amoss (high-percentage at 21%; stakes specialist).

Recent Finishes: 44 (4th in last two; excuses like traffic; prior wins).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 106) standout on figures. Strengths: Class drop; top connections. Weaknesses: Recent form dip; outer post. Prospects: Favorite for good reason; expect rebound to dominate.

Keyana (PP 7, ML 12/1)

Jockey: Cristian Torres (up-and-comer with 17% wins; aggressive).

Trainer: Daniel Leitch (local with 13% in sprints).

Recent Finishes: 53 (5th two back, 3rd last out; improving).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 89) with upside. Strengths: Late kick; value odds. Weaknesses: Wide draw; needs luck. Prospects: Upset potential in exotics.

Bachelor Party (PP 8, ML 30/1)

Jockey: Tyler Bacon (apprentice with 10% wins; learning curve).

Trainer: Boyd Caster (claimers specialist at 11%).

Recent Finishes: 24 (2nd two back, 4th last out).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 84) longshot. Strengths: Occasional spark. Weaknesses: Class hike; outer post. Prospects: Bomber for supers.

Coaster (PP 9, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Evin Roman (solid 15% wins; west coast ship).

Trainer: Ron Moquett (Oaklawn regular at 14%).

Recent Finishes: 59 (5th two back, 9th last out; form dip).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 90) with potential. Strengths: Local barn. Weaknesses: Recent poor; wide. Prospects: Value for underneath.

Anakarina (PP 10, ML 10/1)

Jockey: Julien Leparoux (finesse at 18% wins; good closers).

Trainer: Dallas Stewart (stakes hitter at 16%).

Recent Finishes: 31 (3rd two back, 1st last out; maiden breaker).

Analysis: 3YO filly (OR 90) improving. Strengths: Momentum; pedigree. Weaknesses: Far outside; traffic risk. Prospects: Intriguing mid-price play.

Race Overview

The Bay Ridge Stakes is a $125,000 restricted stakes race for New York-bred fillies and mares aged 3 years and up, contested over 1 mile on the dirt track. This one-turn event is Race 8 on a 10-race card at Aqueduct Racetrack, located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd, South Ozone Park, Queens, NY 11420. The race is scheduled to start at 3:09 PM ET on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:40 AM ET.

Aqueduct’s dirt track is known for its winterized surface during the colder months, which helps maintain consistency despite weather challenges. Following a significant snowfall of over 4 inches in the New York area on December 27—the heaviest in nearly four years—the track conditions for December 28 are expected to be fast, as temperatures will remain below or near freezing, preventing significant melting. However, if any residual moisture freezes overnight, the track could be harrowed for safety, potentially leading to a slightly slower or “good” surface. Track maintenance crews at Aqueduct are experienced with these conditions, and racing is expected to proceed without interruption.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Ozone Park, NY, on December 28 calls for cloudy skies with highs around 35°F and lows dipping to 18-28°F. Winds from the NNE at 10-20 mph could make it feel colder, with a 70% chance of light snow in the morning transitioning to mostly cloudy conditions by afternoon. Accumulation, if any, should be minimal (less than 1 inch), but icy patches on roads and walkways around the venue may persist from the prior day’s storm. Attendees should dress warmly, and bettors should note that cold, windy conditions can sometimes favor horses with forward speed or those accustomed to winter racing at Aqueduct.

Field Analysis

Seven horses are entered in this competitive New York-bred affair. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (based on form figures, where lower numbers indicate better placings; most recent on the right), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and overall prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided as a betting guide, reflecting probable starting prices. Analysis draws from recent performances, pedigree, and trainer comments where available.

Five To Two (PP 1, ML 50/1)

Jockey: Samuel Camacho Jr. (experienced journeyman with a 10% win rate at Aqueduct this meet; excels in stalking roles).

Trainer: Joseph Parker (solid mid-level conditioner with a 15% win rate in NY-bred stakes; focuses on consistent performers).

Recent Finishes: Form 32 (3rd, then 2nd in most recent; specific races include a close 2nd in a state-bred allowance at Finger Lakes in November, beaten by a neck, and a 3rd in an optional claimer at Aqueduct in October over 7 furlongs).

Analysis: This 4-year-old filly is a two-time winner overall, with both victories coming in lower-level claimers on dirt. She’s lightly raced this year (14 starts, 2-4-0 record) and steps up significantly in class here. Strengths include her inside draw, which could allow her to save ground and stalk the pace, and her pedigree (by Holiday Disguise out of a consistent NY-bred mare). Weaknesses: She’s outclassed on paper, with lower speed figures (around 75 Beyer) and no stakes experience. Prospects are dim as a longshot; she might hang on for a minor award if the pace melts down, but she’s more likely to tire late in this deeper field.

Landed (PP 2, ML 9/5)

Jockey: John Velazquez (Hall of Famer with a 25% win rate at Aqueduct; master tactician who wins big races).

Trainer: Wesley Ward (high-percentage trainer at 33% wins on the NYRA circuit this year, with a 65% in-the-money rate; specializes in sprinters but adapts well to routes).

Recent Finishes: Form 115 (1st, 1st, then 5th most recent; won the Broadway Stakes at Aqueduct in February over 7 furlongs, followed by another win in the state-bred Fleet Indian over 9 furlongs; last out, 4th/5th in a one-mile turf optional claimer at Kentucky Downs in September, beaten 3 lengths after traffic trouble).

Analysis: A 4-year-old multiple stakes winner (10-5-1-3 career), she’s a $500,000 yearling with strong breeding (half-sister to graded stakes-placed Venti Valentine). Strengths: Proven at Aqueduct (3-for-4), versatile distances, and tactical speed to press or close. Weaknesses: Returning from a layoff (third start off February win, but cross-entered elsewhere recently), and the turf-to-dirt switch could require adjustment. Prospects are excellent as the morning-line favorite; she thrives in NY-bred company and could wire the field if uncontested early. Trainer’s hot streak adds confidence.

Atlantis Queen (PP 3, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Mychel Sanchez (up-and-coming rider with a 18% win rate; aggressive style suits frontrunners).

Trainer: Gary Capuano (Maryland-based with occasional NY shippers; 20% win rate in allowances, but less in stakes).

Recent Finishes: Form 43 (4th, then 3rd most recent; dominated a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Laurel on November 15 by 5 1/4 lengths; prior 4th in the Gin Talking Stakes at Laurel last December over 7 furlongs; 3rd in a tough optional claimer at Pimlico in October).

Analysis: This 3-year-old filly (14-2-4-0 career) is stepping up after a breakout allowance win against elders. Strengths: Stamina for the mile (out of stakes-winning mare No Hayne No Gayne, 2nd in 2018 Bay Ridge), and her recent dominant score suggests improving form. Weaknesses: Class hike is steep, with only one prior stakes try (off the board); cold weather might test her if the track is tiring. Prospects: Upside as a lightly raced improver; could rally for a piece if the pace is hot, but needs to prove she belongs at this level.

Soloshot (PP 4, ML 10/1)

Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez (strong finisher with 22% win rate at Aqueduct; good on closers).

Trainer: Ilkay Kantarmaci (claims barn specialist; 15% win rate post-claim, debuting this one after a $45,000 tag).

Recent Finishes: Form 36 (3rd, then 6th most recent; 2nd by a half-length in the NYSSS Staten Island over 7 furlongs on November 22; prior wins in NYSSS Cupecoy’s Joy (6f turf) and 2023 Lady Finger; 6th in a turf sprint claimer before claim).

Analysis: A 4-year-old dual stakes winner (19-3-3-0 career), she’s versatile on surfaces. Strengths: Recent strong form in state-bred stakes, closing kick, and pedigree (out of stakes-placed Sweet Queen). Weaknesses: Barn debut adds uncertainty; shorter distances suit her better than this mile. Prospects: Value play at double-digit odds; could close for second or third if the frontrunners falter in the cold.

Bernietakescharge (PP 5, ML 2/1)

Jockey: Ruben Silvera (pacesetting specialist; 12% win rate but effective on speed horses).

Trainer: Domenick Schettino (veteran with 18% win rate in routes; notes she’s forwardly placed and thriving).

Recent Finishes: Form 64 (6th, then 4th most recent; 2nd by 2 1/4 lengths in the Empire Distaff over 9 furlongs; gate-to-wire win in Heavenly Prize Invitational over this course/distance by 6 1/4 lengths, earning 97 Beyer).

Analysis: This 4-year-old homebred pacesetter has a strong Aqueduct affinity. Strengths: Loves leading (or near pace), career-best figures here, and family ties (half-sister to stakes winners). Weaknesses: Prefers two turns per trainer, but has won at one mile; recent form dipped slightly. Prospects: Top contender to dictate terms; well-suited to the track and could rebound strongly.

Cupid’s Heart (PP 6, ML 4/1)

Jockey: Manuel Franco (top NY rider with 24% win rate; versatile and tactical).

Trainer: Bruce Levine (stakes expert; 20% win rate in NY-breds, four-time winner with this mare).

Recent Finishes: Form 17 (1st, then 7th most recent; won a state-bred allowance at Belmont in October over 1 mile; 7th in a tougher open stakes at Saratoga in August).

Analysis: A 6-year-old veteran (four-time winner), she’s consistent in NY company. Strengths: Route experience and closing ability. Weaknesses: Age might catch up in cold weather; outer post could force wide trip. Prospects: Solid for exotics; could rally if pace sets up.

Fast And Frisky (PP 7, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Christopher Elliott (emerging talent; 16% win rate, good on shippers).

Trainer: Brad Cox (Eclipse Award winner; 28% win rate overall, excels with routers).

Recent Finishes: Form 29 (2nd, then 9th most recent; 2nd in an allowance at Churchill Downs in November over 1 1/16 miles; 9th in a graded try at Keeneland in October).

Analysis: This 4-year-old three-time winner ships from Midwest bases. Strengths: Trainer’s prowess and stamina. Weaknesses: Wide post and NY debut; recent blowout raises questions. Prospects: Intriguing if she adapts; could surprise for a share.