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Casey O’Brien hat trick leads the New York Sirens to a 4-3 win over the Seattle Torrent

PWHL Editor
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Casey O’Brien hat trick leads the New York Sirens to a 4-3 win over the Seattle Torrent

DALLAS, TX (December 28, 2025) – Third overall pick Casey O’Brien scored her first three career goals to lead the New York Sirens to a 4-3 victory over the Seattle Torrent on Sunday night at American Airlines Center in the PWHL Takeover Tour™ presented by BJ’s Wholesale Club. The win came before a crowd of 8,514 in the first-ever PWHL game played in Dallas and saw New York come from behind three different times to snap a four-game losing streak. O’Brien was one of five different goal scorers to find the back of the net for the first time this season. Her first goal at 18:23 of the first period tied the game 1-1, then her second on the power play at 13:01 of the middle frame tied the game 2-2. Fellow rookie Maddi Wheeler made it 3-3 at 9:33 of the third period, paving the way for O’Brien’s hat trick goal on the power play at 16:40, which held as the game-winner. Danielle Serdachny and Mikyla Grant-Mentis scored first period goals for Seattle at 5:33 and 19:28, respectively, and Lexie Adzija scored for the Torrent at 1:47 of the third period for the team’s third go-ahead goal. Kayle Osborne picked up the win with a season-high 30 saves against her former Colgate University teammate, Hannah Murphy, who stopped 37 shots for the second straight game, suffering her first career loss. The Sirens will play a New Year’s Eve matinee at home against Vancouver to wrap up the 2025 calendar, while the Torrent will play another Takeover Tour game next Saturday against Toronto in Hamilton, ON. 

QUOTES

New York forward Casey O’Brien on the chemistry of her linemates that resulted in her three-goal game: “We’ve been putting in a lot of work in practice and video, focusing on the little things. It’s been frustrating at times when the results weren’t there but tonight felt like the payoff. Every goal came from everyone doing the small details that start in the D zone, even when they don’t always get noticed. I’m really proud of the group and how we pulled out the win. It was a hard-fought game with plenty of ups and downs, but our third period showed what we’re capable of when we stay committed.” 

Sirens Head Coach Greg Fargo on the ups and downs of the game: “I thought there were some moments where we had to respond in the right way. We got down a couple times throughout the game…the back-to-back penalties there in the third, to come out of that, and for Wheels [Maddi Wheeler] to earn herself a breakaway in that play, I thought that was really a pivotal moment of the game. It changed momentum for us. But as Casey said, I’m really proud of our effort all the way through. I think we stuck to our game plan, stuck to playing a strong 60 minutes, so good to get the reward at the end.”  

Seattle forward Hilary Knight on the Torrent’s first PWHL Takeover Tour experience in Dallas: “To be able to have that exposure for young fans who get to see us out there and play right in front of their eyes is pretty special. I know the community embraced us really well, and it was exciting to have our player Hannah Bilka from this area to bring professional women’s hockey to Dallas in front of a home crowd to watch her play at the highest level.”  

Torrent Head Coach Steve O’Rourke on Lexie Adzija and Mikyla Grant Mentis’ first goals of the season, and overall performance of the third line: “They’re certainly building momentum. Each game they’ve had great opportunities to score goals, and they just keep churning and building that momentum, and tonight they got rewarded for it. It’s good to see.”  

NOTABLES

This was the fourth of 16 games in the 2025-26 PWHL Takeover Tour™ and so far, each has been decided by one goal, with the previous three going to extra time. 

New York has now outshot their opponent in all eight games this season and have produced three of the league’s four highest single game shot counts of 40 or more. 

Seattle entered tonight’s action with just five different goal scorers, fewest in the PWHL, before getting goals from three different players. 

Casey O’Brien is the first rookie, and third skater, to record a hat trick this season and the first player in PWHL history to score a hat trick in a Takeover Tour game. She’s also the first player in the PWHL to score two power play goals in a single game this season. This marks her first career point streak (3G, 1A) and puts her tied for second in rookie scoring with five points (3G, 2A) in eight games after winning the 2025 Patty Kazmaier Memorial Award and leading the NCAA with 88 points (26G, 62A) in 41 games with Wisconsin. 

Maddi Wheeler‘s first career goal came in her eighth career game and on her 21st shot of the season. The Sirens fourth-round pick began her career with three assists in her debut and now has her first career point streak following an assist last week against Toronto. 

Jaime Bourbonnais became the first defender this season to record a three-point performance with a career-high three assists tonight. The Sirens alternate captain had four previous two-point efforts and just one during the 2024-25 campaign she finished with seven points (2G, 5A) in 30 games. 

Kayle Osborne remains the only goaltender to play in all of her team’s games so far this season. As a rookie in 2024-25, she faced 30 or more shots in four of her 10 appearances. 

Mikyla Grant-Mentis recorded her first multi-point performance of the season, and fourth of her career, and has three points in her last three games following an assist on Dec. 21 against Boston. The Torrent forward last scored both a goal and an assist in a game with Montréal on Jan. 8, while the last of her three goals scored in 2024-25 also beat Osborne on Feb. 15. 

Danielle Serdachny‘s first goal of the season was scored against her former Colgate University goaltender. It was her second point of the campaign after recording an assist in Seattle’s season opener. As a rookie last season with Ottawa, the 2024 second overall pick scored twice with her tallies coming in her first and eighth game. 

Lexie Adzija‘s first goal is also her first point of the season as a member of the Torrent. She scored twice last season in 29 games with Boston, with the first one scored in her 22nd game. 

Megan Carter picked up her second assist in four games with a primary helper on the game’s opening goal by Serdachny. The Torrent defender’s two points are tied for the team lead among rearguards and surpasses the one assist she tallied in 19 games as a rookie last season with Toronto. 

Natalie Snodgrass recorded her first point in six games as a member of the Torrent with a primary assist on the Grant-Mentis goal. She had one assist and two points in 21 games in her second season with Ottawa in 2024-25, with both coming in the final three games of the campaign. 

Hilary Knight has recorded an assist in consecutive games for the second time this season. The Torrent captain’s six helpers lead the team and ranks second in the PWHL. 

Lyndie Lobdell picked up her first career PWHL point with an assist in her fourth game. She was selected by the Torrent in the fifth-round of the 2025 PWHL Draft after finishing her Penn State tenure with a career-high 17 assists and 21 points in 38 games in 2024-25. 

Elle Hartje had her first assist since recording two in the Sirens season opener and is now halfway to the six helpers she produced in 27 games as a rookie in 2024-25. 

Paetyn Levis‘ second assist and fourth point of the season bring her halfway to her 2024-25 season total of eight points (4G, 4A) in 30 games. 

Sarah Fillier has her first point streak of the season with one assist in consecutive games. The 2025 PWHL Rookie of the Year and co-scoring leader had four different point streaks last season, including two six-game stretches. 

Kristin O’Neill picked up her first assist and second point as a member of the Sirens. She also led all skaters with a season-high six shots on goal. 

Taylor Girard collected her first assist of the season and has her first career point streak (1G, 1A). The New York forward’s streak follows a five-game point drought after her season-opening hat trick. 

Hannah Murphy allowed multiple goals against for the first time in her PWHL career with tonight’s four goals exceeding the three she surrendered across her first three career starts and wins. The Torrent second-round pick became the first goaltender this season to record an assist, having previously tallied three helpers during her collegiate career. 

Alex Carpenter took a game-high 28 faceoffs for the third time this season and had a game-high 19 wins at the dot. The Torrent alternate captain leads all PWHL centers with 170 faceoffs and is the first to surpass 100 faceoff wins this season (104). 

Jenna Buglioni was scratched from the Torrent lineup for the second straight game and is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. 

The first-ever PWHL game in Texas was a homecoming for Torrent forward Hannah Bilka (Coppell) and Sirens defender Allyson Simpson (Frisco). 

THREE STARS 

1. Casey O’Brien (NY) 3G 
2. Maddi Wheeler (NY) 1G 
3. Mikyla Grant-Mentis (SEA) 1G, 1A 

STANDINGS

Seattle (3-0-1-3) – 5th Place 
New York (3-0-0-5) – 6th Place (Tied) 

UPCOMING SCHEDULES

New York: Wednesday, Dec. 31 vs. New York at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT 
Seattle: Saturday, Jan. 3 at Toronto (in Hamilton) at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT 

Horse Race Preview: Race 3 – Blue Norther Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

Agate Editor
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Horse Race Preview: Race 3 – Blue Norther Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

The Blue Norther Stakes is a prestigious $100,000 turf stakes race for 2-year-old fillies, showcasing emerging talent in Southern California’s winter racing season. This 1-mile event on the turf often serves as a key prep for longer-distance races in the new year, with a field of six promising contenders. The race highlights a mix of maiden winners and graded stakes performers, with several horses stretching out or switching surfaces successfully in recent outings.

Venue Location

Santa Anita Park is located at 285 W. Huntington Drive, Arcadia, California 91007. Nestled at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, this historic track, opened in 1934, features a 1-mile dirt oval and a downhill turf course, with the Blue Norther Stakes utilizing the main turf loop. The venue is renowned for its scenic infield and grandstand views, accommodating up to 40,000 spectators.

Post Time: 1:00 PM PT (Race 3 of the card, following Race 1 at 12:00 PM PT and Race 2 at 12:30 PM PT) The full card includes additional stakes like the Grade II Joe Hernandez Stakes later in the day. Gates open at 10:00 AM PT, with live streaming available via TVG, FanDuel TV, and the Santa Anita website.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia on December 29, 2025, calls for mostly cloudy skies with a high of 70°F and a low of 50°F overnight. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, with no precipitation expected during the day. Conditions should be comfortable for racing, though the cloud cover may keep temperatures moderate. This follows a week of heavy rains that delayed the meet’s opening, but skies are expected to clear sufficiently by race day.

Track Conditions

The turf course at Santa Anita is expected to be rated as firm for December 29, 2025, with the rail set at 20 feet. Recent heavy rainfall (over 6-10 inches from December 23-26) led to soft or yielding conditions earlier in the week, prompting the postponement of opening day to December 28. However, storms subsided by December 26 evening, allowing time for drying and maintenance. The dirt track should be fast. Track superintendent reports indicate the turf has drained well, favoring speed horses, but monitor scratches if any residual moisture affects the going.

Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer

The field consists of six 2-year-old fillies, all with turf experience. Below is a detailed breakdown, including starting position (post position), recent finishes (last five races where applicable), pedigree insights, and analysis. Morning line (ML) odds are provided as betting odds; current odds may vary closer to post time.

Total Val (Post Position 1, ML Odds: 15/1)

Horse Analysis: This Kentucky-bred filly by Into Mischief out of Orbolution (by Orb) broke her maiden impressively in her fifth start on November 29 at Del Mar (1 mile turf, firm), winning by a neck with a career-high speed figure of 86. She has shown improvement stretching out, but earlier dirt efforts were inconsistent (e.g., 9th on November 14 at Del Mar dirt). Pedigree suggests stamina for the distance, but she may need a perfect rail trip to contend against stronger closers.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (MSW, 1m turf-firm): 1st (86) – Strong late kick to win.

11/14/25, Del Mar (MSW, 1m dirt-fast): 9th (43) – Faded badly.

10/11/25, Santa Anita (MSW, 1m dirt-fast): 4th (79) – Even effort.

9/6/25, Del Mar (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 4th (80) – Outpaced early.

8/17/25, Del Mar (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 3rd (82) – Good debut speed.

Jockey: Mirco Demuro – Italian rider with international experience; limited U.S. starts but strong on turf (20% win rate in graded stakes abroad). Could use the rail to save ground.

Trainer: Richard E. Mandella – Hall of Famer with a 22% win rate in turf stakes; excels with patient development of young horses like this one. Overall: Value play if overlooked.

Hypergamy (Post Position 2, ML Odds: 5/1)

Horse Analysis: Sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of Shane’s Girlfriend (by Adios Charlie), this homebred has tactical speed and turf affinity. She won a maiden special weight (MSW) convincingly on November 9 at Del Mar (1m turf, 108 speed figure), but faded to 6th in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante on November 29. Prefers firm ground; inside post helps her stalk the pace.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (G3 Jimmy Durante, 1m turf-firm): 6th (97) – Tired late.

11/9/25, Del Mar (MSW, 1m turf-firm): 1st (108) – Dominant win.

10/3/25, Santa Anita (MSW, 1m turf-firm): 8th (87) – Wide trip.

9/6/25, Del Mar (LS Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1m turf-firm): 3rd (83) – Solid close.

8/2/25, Del Mar (MSW, 5f turf-firm): 2nd (54) – Good debut effort.

Jockey: Antonio Fresu – Rising star with 18% win rate at Santa Anita; adept at rating horses on turf.

Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill – Multiple Grade 1 winner (25% in juvenile stakes); fields two here, showing barn confidence. Overall: Live at mid-odds.

Peanutbutterbombe (Post Position 3, ML Odds: 4/1)

Horse Analysis: By Collected out of Candy Store (IRE) (by Lope de Vega), this filly has only one start but impressed winning her MSW debut on October 24 at Santa Anita (6.5f turf, 91 speed figure). Short resume, but pedigree screams turf stamina; could improve second-out with added distance.

Recent Finishes:

10/24/25, Santa Anita (MSW, 6.5f turf-firm): 1st (91) – Wire-to-wire win.

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli – Turf specialist with 21% win rate at Santa Anita; excellent gate speed.

Trainer: Philip D’Amato – Top turf trainer (28% win rate on grass); master at debuting winners. Overall: Intriguing lightly raced contender.

La Ville Lumiere (Post Position 4, ML Odds: 8/5)

Horse Analysis: Favorite by City of Light out of Malibu Drive (by Malibu Moon); versatile but best on turf. Third in the G3 Jimmy Durante (November 29, 98 speed figure) after tough G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies trip. Consistent closer; firm turf and class edge make her the one to beat.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (G3 Jimmy Durante, 1m turf-firm): 3rd (98) – Rallyed well.

10/31/25, Del Mar (G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16m dirt-fast): 7th (94) – Overmatched.

10/4/25, Santa Anita (G2 Oak Leaf, 1 1/16m dirt-fast): 3rd (93) – Good effort.

9/6/25, Del Mar (LS Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1m turf-firm): 5th (81) – Traffic issues.

5/30/25, Santa Anita (MSW, 5f turf-firm): 1st (48) – Easy win.

Jockey: Flavien Prat – Leading rider (73 stakes wins in 2025); 30% win rate with McCarthy.

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy – Strong with juveniles (22% in stakes); HRN power pick. Overall: Logical favorite.

Wild Like the West (Post Position 5, ML Odds: 9/2)

Horse Analysis: Into Mischief filly out of American West (by Curlin); broke maiden October 26 at Santa Anita (1m turf, 91 speed figure) after a poor sprint. Fifth in G3 Jimmy Durante shows class; wide post may force a wide trip, but speed suits firm turf.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (G3 Jimmy Durante, 1m turf-firm): 5th (97) – Even run.

10/26/25, Santa Anita (MSW, 1m turf-firm): 1st (91) – Impressive stretch.

9/6/25, Del Mar (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 8th (70) – Not suited to sprint.

Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez – Top Santa Anita rider (leading in wins); great on closers.

Trainer: Richard Baltas – Solid 18% win rate; good with turf routers. Overall: Upset potential.

Latte Luv (Post Position 6, ML Odds: 5/2)

Horse Analysis: Constitution filly out of Lady Eveline (by Ghostzapper); second in G3 Jimmy Durante (November 29, 99 speed figure) after MSW win. Highest speed figs in field; outside post a minor concern, but tactical speed helps.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (G3 Jimmy Durante, 1m turf-firm): 2nd (99) – Just missed.

10/3/25, Santa Anita (MSW, 1m turf-firm): 1st (95) – Wire-to-wire.

8/17/25, Del Mar (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 5th (76) – Learning curve.

Jockey: Hector Isaac Berrios – Up-and-coming (15% win rate); pairs well with O’Neill.

Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill – See Hypergamy; dual threat in race. Overall: Strong second choice.

Horse Race Preview: Race 7 – Grade II Joe Hernandez Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

Agate Editor
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Horse Race Preview: Race 7 – Grade II Joe Hernandez Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

The Grade II Joe Hernandez Stakes is a $200,000 turf sprint for three-year-olds and upward, run at about 6 1/2 furlongs down the unique hillside turf course. This event honors Santa Anita’s legendary race caller Joe Hernandez and often attracts a mix of speedsters and closers, with the downhill layout favoring horses with tactical speed and balance. The 2025 edition features an overflow field of 15 entries (including also-eligibles), highlighting proven graded performers like Motorious and Gas Me Up, alongside emerging talents. With recent rains in the area, track conditions could play a role, but the forecast suggests firm going.

Venue Location

Santa Anita Park is located at 285 W. Huntington Drive, Arcadia, California 91007. This iconic track, opened in 1934, boasts a one-mile dirt oval and a signature hillside turf course that starts with a downhill chute, adding excitement to sprints like this one. The venue offers stunning mountain views and can host up to 40,000 fans, with the Joe Hernandez Stakes typically drawing strong crowds during the winter meet.

Post Time: 3:00 PM PT (Race 7 on an 11-race card; first post at 12:00 PM PT, with races approximately every 30 minutes) Live coverage is available on FanDuel TV, TVG, and the Santa Anita website, with simulcast wagering nationwide.

Expected Weather Conditions

Forecast for Arcadia on December 29, 2025, indicates sunny skies with a high of 67-70°F and lows around 48°F. Winds will be light and variable (5-10 mph from the northeast), with no precipitation expected. Humidity around 30%. A high wind warning expires at 3:00 PM PT, but gusts up to 45 mph earlier could affect morning workouts. Overall, comfortable racing weather following recent rains that delayed the meet’s opening.

Track Conditions

The turf course is rated as good to firm for December 29, 2025, with the rail set at 20 feet for the hillside configuration. Recent heavy rainfall (leading to the postponement of opening day to December 28) has softened the ground slightly, but drying conditions and maintenance should yield firm turf by post time. The dirt track is fast. Monitor for any changes, as softer turf could favor front-runners, while firm going benefits closers like Motorious. Temp rail distance is 0 feet.

Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer

The field includes 10 main entries and 5 also-eligibles (AEs), with draws if scratches occur. All horses carry weights between 121-125 lbs based on allowances. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, recent finishes (last 5 races where available, with dates, tracks, positions, and notes), pedigree insights, and analysis. Morning line (ML) odds reflect value in this competitive group.

Imagination (Post Position 1, ML Odds: 7/2)

Horse Analysis: This 4-year-old colt by Into Mischief out of Magical Feeling has strong downhill form, finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint prep. Inside post aids his stalking style; pedigree suggests speed and stamina. Recent form shows consistency in graded company, but he needs clean break on potentially soft turf.

Recent Finishes:

11/2/25, Del Mar (G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 5.5f turf-firm): 4th – Good rally.

10/5/25, Santa Anita (G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, 6f dirt-fast): 2nd – Strong close.

8/23/25, Del Mar (G2 Pat O’Brien, 7f dirt-fast): 3rd – Even effort.

7/4/25, Santa Anita (Allowance, 6f turf-firm): 1st – Wire win.

5/26/25, Santa Anita (G3 Daytona, 6.5f turf-firm): 2nd – Just missed.

Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez – Leading rider at Santa Anita (top in wins and earnings); 25% win rate, excels in turf sprints.

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Hall of Famer with multiple Joe Hernandez wins; 28% with turf sprinters. Overall: Contender with class edge.

Zio Jo (Post Position 2, ML Odds: 15/1)

Horse Analysis: 5-year-old gelding by Nyquist out of Senorita Corredora; solid allowance winner but steps up. Pedigree for speed; may press pace from good draw. Recent form mixed, better on dirt.

Recent Finishes: Limited details; last win 10/12/25 Santa Anita allowance (6f turf). Prior graded tries unplaced.

Jockey: Joel Rosario – Hall of Famer with 20% win rate at meet.

Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill – High-volume barn (18% wins); good with claimers stepping up. Overall: Longshot value.

Sorrento Sky (Post Position 3, ML Odds: 6/1)

Horse Analysis: Irish-bred 4-year-old colt by Prince of Lir out of Briarfield Lady; European import with strong closing kick. Recent U.S. form includes Breeders’ Cup near-miss; loves downhill. Pedigree for turf sprints.

Recent Finishes:

11/2/25, Del Mar (G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 5.5f turf-firm): 3rd – Strong rally.

10/5/25, Santa Anita (G2 City of Hope Mile, 1m turf-firm): 5th – Faded late.

8/24/25, Del Mar (Allowance, 5f turf-firm): 1st – Impressive.

7/20/25, Curragh (IRE) (G3, 6f turf-good): 2nd – Good effort abroad.

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli – Turf specialist (21% wins); great on closers.

Trainer: Philip D’Amato – Top turf trainer (28% on grass); multiple entries here. Overall: Live at price.

Flyover (Post Position 4, ML Odds: 30/1)

Horse Analysis: California-bred 4-year-old colt by Om out of First Class Flyer; consistent allowance type but graded jump tough. Pedigree for speed; outside chance if pace melts.

Recent Finishes: Recent allowance places; no graded wins.

Jockey: Tyler Baze – Veteran (15% wins).

Trainer: John W. Sadler – Solid (20% stakes). Overall: Outsider.

Yellow Card (Post Position 5, ML Odds: 12/1)

Horse Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Lost Treasure out of Paris Girl; improving with distance cutback. Pedigree suggests turf affinity.

Recent Finishes: Recent allowance win; graded debut.

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura – Rising star (18% wins).

Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy – Good with juveniles but solid here. Overall: Mid-pack value.

Motorious (Post Position 6, ML Odds: 3/1)

Horse Analysis: 7-year-old gelding by Muhaarar out of Squash; Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up. Late-runner thrives on firm turf; post allows stalking. Pedigree for European-style sprints. Favorite with course conditions suiting.

Recent Finishes:

11/2/25, Del Mar (G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 5.5f turf-firm): 2nd – Nose loss.

10/5/25, Santa Anita (G2 Eddie D, 6.5f turf-firm): 1st – Dominant.

8/23/25, Del Mar (G2 Green Flash, 5f turf-firm): 1st – Wire.

7/4/25, Santa Anita (Allowance, 6.5f turf-firm): 2nd – Close.

5/26/25, Santa Anita (G3 Daytona, 6.5f turf-firm): 3rd – Solid.

Jockey: Antonio Fresu – Strong on turf (20% wins).

Trainer: Philip D’Amato – See Sorrento Sky. Overall: Top choice.

Unconquerable Keen (Post Position 7, ML Odds: 8/1)

Horse Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Clodovil out of Queenie Keen; consistent closer with recent stakes places. Pedigree for turf.

Recent Finishes: Recent G3 place; good form.

Jockey: Abelardo Ayuso – Up-and-coming.

Trainer: Philip D’Amato – Barn hot. Overall: Upset threat.

El Potente (Post Position 8, ML Odds: 5/1)

Horse Analysis: 6-year-old horse by Temple City out of Charmsil; front-runner who won last downhill start. Milers shortening up; soft turf helps. Pedigree for stamina.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (G3 Seabiscuit, 1 1/16m turf-firm): 4th – Tired.

10/5/25, Santa Anita (G2 City of Hope, 1m turf-firm): 1st – Upset win.

8/24/25, Del Mar (Allowance, 1m turf-firm): 2nd – Close.

Jockey: Hector I. Berrios – Solid (15% wins).

Trainer: Dean Blacker – Underrated. Overall: Pace factor.

Gas Me Up (Post Position 9, ML Odds: 5/1)

Horse Analysis: 5-year-old gelding by Hard Spun out of Chic Thrill; versatile with speed. Recent win in G3; post requires ground-saving trip. Pedigree for turf routes.

Recent Finishes:

11/29/25, Del Mar (G3 Jimmy Durante, wait no, wrong; stakes win 10/12/25). Recent graded places.

Jockey: Mirco Demuro – International star.

Trainer: Peter Eurton – Consistent (20% wins). Overall: Strong contender.

Sumter (Post Position 10, ML Odds: 20/1)

Horse Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by War Front out of A Little Bit Sassy; class dropper with speed. Wide post hurts.

Recent Finishes: Mixed graded.

Jockey: Flavien Prat – Top rider (30% wins).

Trainer: Richard E. Mandella – Hall of Famer. Overall: Value.

Also Eligibles (draw in if scratches): 11. Awesome Rhythm (20/1) – Longshot; J: Ayuso, T: Garcia. Recent allowance.
12. Schwarzmeier (20/1) – Mid-level; J: Maldonado, T: Eurton.
13. Feel the Magic (30/1) – Outsider; J: Franco, T: Valdez.
14. Son of a Birch (30/1) – Speedy; J: Rispoli, T: Falcone.
15. First Peace (15/1) – Consistent; J: Smith, T: Glatt. Recent stakes place.

Horse Race Preview: Race 6 – Arizona Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Turfway Paradise

Agate Editor
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Horse Race Preview: Race 6 – Arizona Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Turfway Paradise

The Arizona Juvenile Fillies Stakes is a $30,000 dirt stakes race for 2-year-old fillies, run at 6 1/2 furlongs. This event highlights up-and-coming Arizona-bred or sired talent in a competitive field of seven entries, with a mix of maiden winners and lightly raced prospects. The race often features tactical speed duels on Turf Paradise’s dirt oval, favoring horses with early pace or strong closing kicks. Justin Evans fields two contenders, adding intrigue to the betting landscape.

Venue Location

Turf Paradise is located at 1501 W. Bell Road, Phoenix, Arizona 85023. Opened in 1956, this historic track features a one-mile dirt oval and a 7/8-mile turf course, though this stakes is on dirt. The venue is known for its affordable admission, vibrant OTB simulcasting, and mountain views, with a capacity for about 10,000 fans.

Post Time: Approximately 3:45 PM MST (Race 6 on an 8-race card; first post at 1:15 PM MST, with races spaced about 30 minutes apart) Live coverage and wagering are available via TVG, TwinSpires, and track simulcasts.

Expected Weather Conditions

Forecast for Phoenix on December 29, 2025, calls for sunny skies with a high of 70°F and lows around 52°F. Winds will be light at 1-5 mph, with 0% chance of precipitation and low humidity (around 30%). Ideal racing weather, promoting fast times on dirt without heat-related fatigue.

Track Conditions

The dirt track at Turf Paradise is rated as fast for December 29, 2025. No recent rain has affected the surface, and maintenance crews report excellent drainage and consistent footing. The rail is at zero feet, favoring inside speed in sprints like this. Monitor for any late changes, but expect a fair, speed-friendly track.

Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer

The field consists of seven 2-year-old fillies, all carrying 8-9 (123 lbs). All are Arizona-bred or sired, with limited starts typical for juveniles. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, recent finishes (last five where available, with dates, tracks, positions, and speed figures if noted), pedigree insights, and analysis. Morning line (ML) odds are listed; actual odds may vary.

Skyexpress (Post Position 1, ML Odds: 8/1)

Horse Analysis: By Sky Mesa out of Expressly (by Lookin At Lucky), this filly has shown tactical speed in sprints. Pedigree leans toward dirt stamina; inside post allows ground-saving trip, but she needs to break alertly to avoid traffic. Recent form inconsistent, but improving with experience.

Recent Finishes:

11/15/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 3rd (78) – Rallied late.

10/20/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 6f dirt-fast): 4th (72) – Faded after pace duel.

9/10/25, Emerald Downs (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 5th (68) – Green but showed speed.

Jockey: Blake Nunnally – Local rider with 15% win rate at Turf Paradise; strong from inside posts (18% wins).

Trainer: Alexis Leon – Solid with juveniles (20% win rate); focuses on Arizona-breds. Overall: Value underlay if pace collapses.

Rascally Rabbit (Post Position 2, ML Odds: 5/2)

Horse Analysis: Sired by Rabbit Run out of Mischief Maker (by Goldencents), she boasts quick gate speed. Pedigree for early maturity; good draw for stalking. Recent wins suggest she’s peaking, but must handle class rise.

Recent Finishes:

12/09/25, Turf Paradise (Allowance, 6f dirt-fast): 1st (85) – Wire-to-wire.

09/22/25, Prairie Meadows (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 1st (82) – Dominant.

08/01/25, Prairie Meadows (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 1st (78) – Easy score.

Jockey: Frank Alvarado – Veteran with 22% win rate in sprints; excels on speed horses.

Trainer: Kevin Eikleberry – High-percentage barn (25% wins with 2YOs); consistent producer. Overall: Co-favorite with upside.

Run As One (Post Position 3, ML Odds: 12/1)

Horse Analysis: By Unified out of Runaway Girl (by Runhappy), she has closer tendencies. Pedigree for dirt sprints; mid-pack post suits rallying style, but needs pace meltdown. Limited form, but untapped potential.

Recent Finishes:

11/20/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 6f dirt-fast): 2nd (76) – Closed well.

10/05/25, Turf Paradise (Debut, 5.5f dirt-fast): 6th (62) – Learning experience.

Jockey: Jose Asencio – Steady performer (16% wins); good on closers.

Trainer: Marvin Buffalo – Develops late bloomers (18% with juveniles). Overall: Longshot for exotics.

Run Your Mouth (Post Position 4, ML Odds: 6/1)

Horse Analysis: Daughter of Practical Joke out of Chatterbox (by Munnings), with playful speed. Pedigree screams precocity; central post for versatile tactics. Recent placings show consistency.

Recent Finishes:

11/10/25, Turf Paradise (Allowance, 6f dirt-fast): 2nd (80) – Pressed pace.

10/15/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 3rd (75) – Solid effort.

09/05/25, Emerald Downs (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 1st (72) – Debut win.

Jockey: Orlando Mojica – Aggressive rider (20% wins in stakes); pairs well with speed.

Trainer: Isaiah Ortiz – Rising star (22% with 2YOs). Overall: Mid-price contender.

Playful (Post Position 5, ML Odds: 5/1)

Horse Analysis: By Practical Joke out of Fun-loving (by Ghostzapper), tactical and versatile. Pedigree for adaptability; outside draw may force wide trip, but strong finisher. Improving form.

Recent Finishes:

11/25/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 6f dirt-fast): 1st (82) – Impressive close.

10/10/25, Turf Paradise (Debut, 5.5f dirt-fast): 4th (70) – Even run.

Jockey: Manuel Americano – Local specialist (19% wins at track).

Trainer: Gonzalo Anderson – Patient developer (20% juveniles). Overall: Live at odds.

Subtle Shimmer (Post Position 6, ML Odds: 7/2)

Horse Analysis: Sired by Twirling Candy out of Shimmering Light (by Candy Ride), with closing kick. Pedigree for stretch runs; wide post a concern, but barn’s hot form helps. Recent efforts strong.

Recent Finishes:

07/27/25, Emerald Downs (Allowance, 6.5f dirt-fast): 1st (84) – Rallied.

06/15/25, Emerald Downs (MSW, 5f dirt-fast): 1st (80) – Wire win.

Jockey: Kiaman McGregor – Up-and-coming (17% wins); good on closers.

Trainer: Justin Evans – Top barn (28% win rate); dual threat. Overall: Strong second choice.

Whiskey High (Post Position 7, ML Odds: 2/1)

Horse Analysis: By Whiskey Wisdom out of High Spirits (by Ghostzapper), front-runner with class. Pedigree for speed; outermost post challenges, but dominant form makes her the one to beat.

Recent Finishes:

11/18/25, Turf Paradise (Allowance, 6f dirt-fast): 1st (88) – Easy lead.

10/12/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 1st (85) – Impressive.

09/08/25, Emerald Downs (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 2nd (82) – Just missed.

Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez – Stakes specialist (25% wins).

Trainer: Justin Evans – See Subtle Shimmer; favored entry. Overall: Logical favorite.

PWHL Game Preview: Minnesota Frost (3-1-1-2) vs. Toronto Sceptres (4-0-2-2)

PWHL Editor
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PWHL Game Preview: Minnesota Frost (3-1-1-2) vs. Toronto Sceptres (4-0-2-2)

The Professional Women’s Hockey League (PWHL) features an intriguing matchup on December 30, 2025, as the defending two-time champion Minnesota Frost travel to face the Toronto Sceptres in a rematch of their season-opening clash earlier this year. This game pits two of the league’s top contenders against each other, with Toronto looking to build on its strong start and Minnesota aiming to regain momentum after a mixed December. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of all key aspects.

Venue Location

The game will be held at Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. This historic venue, located on the grounds of Exhibition Place, has a seating capacity of approximately 8,000 and serves as the primary home arena for the Toronto Sceptres. It’s known for its intimate atmosphere and has hosted numerous PWHL games, including high-stakes playoff matchups.

Puckdrop is set for 7:00 PM EST (6:00 PM CST for Minnesota viewers)

Broadcast: Available on FanDuel Sports Network and FOX 9+ in Minnesota markets; nationally via PWHL streaming partners and regional sports networks.

Injury Report

Both teams are dealing with notable absences that could impact their defensive depth and overall strategy.

Minnesota Frost:

Defender Sophie Jaques: Questionable (lower-body injury). She underwent an MRI following an injury sustained in a December 19 game against Ottawa and has missed recent outings. Her status remains day-to-day, potentially weakening Minnesota’s blue line if she’s out.

Forward Taylor Heise: Probable (knee). She’s been spotted in a knee brace earlier in the season but has played through it, contributing offensively in recent wins.

No other major injuries reported as of December 28, but the team has been cautious with veterans amid a busy December schedule.

Toronto Sceptres:

Defender Renata Fast: Doubtful (lower-body injury). The 2025 PWHL Defender of the Year has missed the last three games, including Toronto’s December 27 win over Montréal. This is a significant blow to Toronto’s top defensive pairing, as Fast leads the team in ice time and shutdown capabilities.

cbc.ca +1

No additional key injuries, though the team has rotated goalies due to a condensed schedule.

These injuries could force both teams to rely on younger players, potentially leading to more open play and higher scoring opportunities.

Player Matchups

This game features several compelling individual battles, particularly in the forward lines and goaltending, where star power could decide the outcome. Key matchups to watch:

Natalie Spooner (TOR Forward) vs. Lee Stecklein (MIN Defender): Spooner, Toronto’s leading scorer with multiple assists in recent games, thrives on speed and net-front presence. Stecklein, a shutdown specialist for Minnesota, will be tasked with neutralizing her, especially on the power play. Spooner’s two assists in the season opener against Minnesota highlight her threat.

Taylor Heise (MIN Forward) vs. Jocelyne Larocque (TOR Defender): Heise’s overtime winner against Vancouver on December 27 showcases her clutch ability. Larocque, stepping up in Fast’s absence, must contain Heise’s breakaway speed and shooting accuracy.

Kendall Coyne Schofield (MIN Forward) vs. Sarah Nurse (TOR Forward): A captain vs. captain showdown in the neutral zone. Both are elite skaters known for forechecking; Coyne Schofield’s experience could edge out Nurse’s playmaking if Minnesota controls possession.

Goaltending Duel: Nicole Hensley (MIN) vs. Kristen Campbell/Elaine Chuli (TOR): Hensley has been solid in relief starts, while Toronto’s tandem has shone—Chuli’s 29-save performance on December 27 gives her the edge if she starts. Expect low-scoring if both are on form.

These matchups emphasize Toronto’s offensive depth against Minnesota’s championship pedigree in tight games.

Minnesota sits mid-pack in the standings, while Toronto holds a top spot thanks to fewer regulation losses. Note: PWHL points system awards 3 for regulation wins, 2 for OT/SO wins, 1 for OT/SO losses, and 0 for regulation losses.

Recent Team Forms

Both teams have shown resilience in overtime situations but have struggled with consistency.

Minnesota Frost (Last 5 Games):

DateOpponentResultKey Notes
Dec 27at VancouverW 2-1 OTHeise’s OT goal; strong defense limited shots. thetelegraph.com
Dec 21vs OttawaL 2-3 OTOvertime loss; power play inefficiency. letsplayhockey.com
Dec 19at ? (Unspecified)W (Details limited)Solid win; Jaques injured. instagram.com
Dec 7vs BostonL (Score unspecified)Home loss; offensive struggles.
Dec 1vs New YorkL 3-4 OTClose battle; earned a point. thepwhl.com

Form: W-L-W-L-L (2-1-2 in last 5, including OT). Minnesota has gone to overtime in three of their last five, winning one, but injuries have hampered their depth.

Toronto Sceptres (Last 5 Games):

DateOpponentResultKey Notes
Dec 27at MontréalW 2-1Chuli’s 29 saves; Watts’ GWG without Fast. thepwhl.com +1
Dec 24vs OttawaL 3-4 OTOvertime loss; competitive but defensive lapses. tsn.ca
Dec 21at New YorkW (Score unspecified)Road win; strong forecheck.
Dec 17vs MontréalL (Details limited)Home setback; goaltending tandem tested. reddit.com
Nov 21at MinnesotaW 2-1Season opener; Zanon’s GWG. thepwhl.com

Form: W-L-W-L-W (3-0-1-1 in last 5). Toronto has won three of five, with both losses in OT, showing strong goaltending but vulnerability without Fast.

Series History

Minnesota and Toronto have a heated rivalry, with 20 all-time meetings (including playoffs). Minnesota holds a slight edge overall (11 wins to Toronto’s 9), but Toronto has won the last regular-season encounter.

All-Time Head-to-Head: Minnesota 11-9 (54 goals for Minnesota, 50 for Toronto).

Recent Games:

Nov 21, 2025: Toronto 2-1 Minnesota (regular season).

May 2025 Playoffs: Minnesota won series 3-1 (including 7-5 and 4-3 wins), eliminating Toronto for the second straight year.

March 30, 2025: Minnesota 5-2 Toronto.

Toronto is 6-4 at home vs. Minnesota, but the Frost have dominated playoffs (6-2 record in postseason meetings).

Minnesota’s playoff success gives them a psychological edge, but Toronto’s home-ice advantage and recent form could shift the narrative.

Betting Trends

Minnesota Frost: 4-3 to the under in their last 7 games; 2-3 as underdogs this season. They are 5-2 in their last 7 road games but 1-4 against the spread (ATS) when facing top teams like Toronto.

Toronto Sceptres: 5-3 to the under in last 8; 4-1 ATS at home. They’ve covered the puck line in 3 straight wins but are 2-4 when favored by -120 or more.

Head-to-Head Trends: Last 5 meetings: 3-2 to the under; Minnesota 3-2 ATS. Games average 4.2 goals, trending low-scoring.

League-Wide: PWHL games in December 2025 have hit the under 60% of the time, favoring defenses in cold-weather months.

GAME ODDS

Minnesota Frost               4.5

Toronto Sceptres             – 125

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, December 29, 2025

Tampa Bay Lightning acquire F Michael Milne from Minnesota Wild

NHL Editor
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Tampa Bay Lightning acquire F Michael Milne from Minnesota Wild

TAMPA BAY – The Tampa Bay Lightning have acquired forward Michael Milne from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for forward Boris Katchouk, Vice President and General Manager Julien BriseBois announced today. He will report to the Syracuse Crunch of the American Hockey League. 

Milne, 23, has skated in 15 games with the AHL’s Iowa Wild this season, recording two goals and five points with 14 penalty minutes. The 5-foot-10, 187-pound forward has appeared in 172 career AHL games, all with Iowa, logging 32 goals and 65 points with 104 penalty minutes, seven power-play goals and five game-winners. 

A native of Abbotsford, British Columbia, Milne was originally drafted by the Wild in the third round, 89th overall, of the 2022 NHL Draft. 

Minnesota Wild Acquires Forward Boris Katchouk From Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL Editor
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Minnesota Wild Acquires Forward Boris Katchouk From Tampa Bay Lightning

IN EXCHANGE FOR FORWARD MICHAEL MILNE

SAINT PAUL, Minn. – Minnesota Wild President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Bill Guerin today announced the National Hockey League (NHL) club has acquired forward Boris Katchouk (pronounced kuh-CHOOK) from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for forward Michael Milne. Katchouk will report to the Iowa Wild in the American Hockey League (AHL).

Katchouk, 27 (6/18/98), has skated in three games with Tampa Bay and has tallied 10 points (4-6=10) in 21 games with the Syracuse Crunch (AHL) this season. The 6-foot-2, 212-pound native of Vancouver, British Columbia, has collected 36 points (15-21=36) and 78 penalty minutes (PIM) in 179 career NHL games with Tampa Bay (2021-22, 2025-26), Chicago (2021-24) and Ottawa (2023-24). Katchouk has also recorded 154 points (64-90=154) and 161 PIM in 261 career AHL games with Syracuse (2018-22, 2024-25), Rockford (2023-24) and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (2024-25). He tallied six points (3-3=6) in seven games to help Canada win the gold medal at the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship. Katchouk notched 202 points (101-101=202) and 154 PIM in 199 career games in four seasons with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (2014-18) in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL). He was originally selected by the Lightning in the second round (44th overall) of the 2016 NHL Draft.

Milne, 23 (9/21/02), was selected by Minnesota in the third round (89th overall) of the 2022 NHL Draft. He tallied 65 points (32-33=65) and 104 PIM in 172 games with the Iowa Wild and appeared in one NHL game with Minnesota, making his NHL debut on Nov. 16, 2024 vs. Dallas.

Tampa Bay Lightning recall D Maxim Groshev, reassign D Steven Santini to AHL Syracuse

NHL Editor
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Tampa Bay Lightning recall D Maxim Groshev, reassign D Steven Santini to AHL Syracuse

TAMPA BAY – The Tampa Bay Lightning have recalled defenseman Maxim Groshev from the Syracuse Crunch of the American Hockey League, Vice President and General Manager Julien BriseBois announced today. In addition, defenseman Steven Santini has been reassigned to AHL Syracuse. 

Groshev, 24, has played in 27 games with Syracuse this season, recording one goal and 12 points with a plus-8 rating. The 6-foot-2, 196-pound Groshev leads all Crunch defensemen for points, assists (11) and shots on goal (50) while ranking tied for second for plus/minus.

A native of Agryz, Russia, Groshev has appeared in 150 career AHL games, all with the Crunch, and registered 18 goals, 56 points and 53 penalty minutes with a plus-10 rating. Groshev was originally drafted by Tampa Bay in the third round, 85th overall, of the 2020 NHL Draft and is looking to make his NHL debut. 

Santini, 30, has played in 18 games as captain of Syracuse this season, logging five assists and a plus-8 rating with four penalty minutes. He has skated in 379 career AHL games between the Crunch, Ontario Reign, Springfield Thunderbirds, Utica Comets, Milwaukee Admirals, Binghamton Devils and Albany Devils, recording 21 goals and 92 points with a plus-64 rating.

A native of Bronxville, New York, Santini has appeared in nine games with Tampa Bay this season, registering one assist, seven hits and six blocked shots while averaging 11:34 of time on ice. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound defenseman has skated in 133 career NHL games between the Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues, collecting five goals and 24 points while averaging 16:47 of time on ice. 

Santini was originally drafted by New Jersey in the second round, 42nd overall, of the 2013 NHL Draft and was signed by Tampa Bay as a free agent on July 1, 2024.

Horse Race Preview: Race 11 – Grade I American Oaks at Santa Anita Race Park

Agate Editor
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Horse Race Preview: Race 11 – Grade I American Oaks at Santa Anita Race Park

Race Overview

The American Oaks presented by Cygames is a Grade I turf stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, contested over 1 1/4 miles on the downhill turf course with a $300,000 purse. This prestigious event, which began in 2002 at Hollywood Park and moved to Santa Anita in 2013, is Race 11 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 4:20 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.

Santa Anita’s turf course features a downhill start for this distance, which can favor horses with early speed or tactical positioning. Following heavy rains that postponed the original opening day from December 26, track conditions for the turf are expected to be good, with some residual softness possible from the prior weather. Officials have confirmed the race will remain on turf, but if conditions worsen, it could be moved to dirt—though that’s unlikely given the forecast.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, calls for partly cloudy skies with highs around 61°F and lows near 43°F. Winds will be light and variable at 5-10 mph, with humidity around 41% and no significant chance of precipitation. These mild conditions should allow the turf to firm up, but any lingering moisture from earlier rains could result in a yielding surface, potentially benefiting horses with European form or proven soft-ground ability. Attendees should prepare for cool weather with layers.

Field Analysis

Eleven fillies are entered in this wide-open Grade I, with a mix of domestic and international talent. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures or descriptions, most recent on the right), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis incorporates pedigree, running style, speed figures where noted, and trainer comments. All carry 124 lbs.

A Thousand Miles (KY) (PP 1, ML 30/1)

Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; excels in big races).

Trainer: Vann Belvoir (mid-level conditioner with 12% win rate; focuses on consistent performers).

Recent Finishes: Won Zia Park Oaks (most recent, by 8 1/2 lengths); wins in Arizona Oaks and Panthers S.; second in Autumn Miss Stakes (G3).

Analysis: By Thousand Words out of Swiss Army Wife; versatile with tactical speed—can press or stalk. Strengths: Rail draw saves ground; strong closing kick in routes. Weaknesses: Form from Zia Park Oaks questioned for depth; class rise steep. Prospects: Longshot value; could factor underneath if pace sets up, but unlikely winner.

Will Then (KY) (PP 2, ML 7/2)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (25% win rate at Santa Anita; tactical master).

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (22% in graded stakes; develops turf routers).

Recent Finishes: 5th in Red Carpet Stakes (G3) at Del Mar (most recent, flattened late); third in San Clemente Handicap (G2T); winless in five but won China Doll Stakes at Santa Anita (March).

Analysis: By War of Will out of Remember Then; mid-pack stalker who rallies. Strengths: Proven at Santa Anita (China Doll win); tactical speed suits downhill; Augustin Stables ownership. Weaknesses: No win since March; recent form dip. Prospects: Top contender; strong rally expected in open field—trainer’s trio adds depth.

Cliffs (KY) (PP 3, ML 6/1)

Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (21% win rate; strong finisher).

Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (18% with shippers; 2024 American Oaks winner).

Recent Finishes: Two wins in five starts (one at Churchill Downs, one at Saratoga); stakes debut.

Analysis: By Omaha Beach out of Perfect View; stalking style with closing ability. Strengths: Shipped early, nice work at Santa Anita; versatile on turf. Weaknesses: Untested in stakes; needs pace help. Prospects: Live shipper; could rally for a piece with clean trip.

Ambaya (KY) (PP 4, ML 8/1)

Jockey: Antonio Fresu (18% win rate; rising star).

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (as above; Augustin Stables).

Recent Finishes: Fourth against older at Del Mar (mile turf, Nov. 24, most recent); third in Christiana Stakes at Delaware Park (Sept. 27); 1-2-1-1 record in five starts.

Analysis: By Ghostzapper out of Kundray; mid-pack stalker who closes. Strengths: Consistent but light résumé; pedigree for turf routes. Weaknesses: No standout stakes win; class test. Prospects: Value in trainer’s trio; could improve for exotics.

Slick (IRE) (PP 5, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (22% at Santa Anita; aggressive).

Trainer: Philip D’Amato (24% on turf; stakes specialist).

Recent Finishes: Fifth in Autumn Miss Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita (most recent); no placings in three graded tries; two overnight wins at Santa Anita.

Analysis: By Oasis Dream out of Shurooq; mid-pack stalker. Strengths: Local wins; barn’s turf success. Weaknesses: Graded form lacking; rebound needed. Prospects: Longshot; minor share if pace melts.

Take A Breath (GB) (PP 6, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (26% win rate; big-race expert).

Trainer: Mark Glatt (15% in stakes; solid with imports).

Recent Finishes: Sixth in Autumn Miss Stakes (G3, most recent, bad trip—checked hard); strong handicap wins in Great Britain pre-U.S.

Analysis: By Bated Breath out of Darling Grace; stalking/mid-pack closer. Strengths: Jockey upgrade; excuses last out. Weaknesses: No U.S. win yet; adapts to distance? Prospects: Upset potential; rally if trouble-free.

Resolve (KY) (PP 7, ML 30/1)

Jockey: Diego A. Herrera (16% win rate; tactical).

Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% in stakes; 2023 American Oaks winner).

Recent Finishes: Third behind Will Then in Jimmy Durante Stakes (G3T); often wide trips.

Analysis: By Midnight Lute out of Custody; comes from off pace. Strengths: Trainer notes 1 1/4 miles suits; stamina. Weaknesses: Wide trips common; longshot odds. Prospects: Exotic filler; could close late.

Totally Justified (KY) (PP 8, ML 5/1)

Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (22% win rate; local leader).

Trainer: Anna M. Meah (emerging; new with this filly post-purchase).

Recent Finishes: Sixth in Valley View Stakes at Keeneland (most recent, two months ago); winless in six this year; standout win in 2024 P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga.

Analysis: By Justify out of Outstanding; near front or mid-pack. Strengths: $775k purchase; blinkers off; versatile. Weaknesses: Break since Keeneland; no 2025 wins. Prospects: Solid mid-odds; could rebound for new connections.

As Catch Can (FL) (PP 9, ML 8/1)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; Hall of Famer).

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (as above; Augustin Stables).

Recent Finishes: Won Old Dominion Oaks at Colonial Downs (most recent, by 3/4 length, Sept. 6, speed 93); second in Mazarine Stakes (G3), Sweet Life Stakes, Bourbonette Oaks, Autumn Miss Stakes (G3).

Analysis: By Mo Town out of Just a Catch; stalker/closer who saves ground. Strengths: Good closing kick; jockey first time. Weaknesses: No G1 win; overlooked at odds. Prospects: Value contender; strong underneath play.

Atsila (IRE) (PP 10, ML 5/2)

Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (13% win rate; aggressive).

Trainer: Richard Baltas (17% with imports; two-time American Oaks winner).

Recent Finishes: Sixth in G1 Sun Chariot (most recent); third in G1 Matron Stakes; won Athasi Stakes (G3) at Curragh (May); two wins in seven European starts; scratched from BC Filly & Mare Turf (vet).

Analysis: By Phoenix of Spain out of Scala Romana; stalker/closer. Strengths: Class from Europe; trainer surprised at favorite status but notes upside. Weaknesses: U.S. debut; wide post. Prospects: Favorite with potential; late rally in tough field.

Ribbons (KY) (PP 11, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Mirco Demuro (19% in U.S. stakes; international).

Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% in stakes; patient).

Recent Finishes: Nose win at mile in allowance optional claimer (most recent); stakes debut.

Analysis: By Liam’s Map out of Calinas Song; front-runner. Strengths: Trainer notes distance question but age group suits. Weaknesses: Outer post; unproven in stakes. Prospects: Mid-odds; could press early but fade.

Horse Race Preview: Race 10 – Grade 1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

Agate Editor
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Horse Race Preview: Race 10 – Grade 1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

Race Overview

The Malibu Stakes is a Grade I dirt stakes race for 3-year-old colts and geldings, contested over 7 furlongs with a $300,000 purse. This sprint event is Race 10 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 3:49 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.

Santa Anita’s main dirt track is a one-mile oval with a single turn for this distance. Following heavy rains earlier in the week that postponed the meet’s opening from December 26, track conditions for December 28 are expected to be fast on dirt, as the surface has dried out with no further significant precipitation forecasted. However, any unexpected moisture could lead to a good surface, potentially suiting horses with tactical speed.

Expected Weather Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, indicates partly cloudy skies with highs around 65°F and lows near 43°F. Winds will be light at 2-8 mph, with humidity around 37% and no significant chance of rain. These mild conditions follow a wet week but should provide ideal racing weather, with no major impact on the track. Bettors should note that the cool temperatures may favor horses with early speed or those proven in California winter conditions. Attendees are recommended to wear layers for comfort.

Field Analysis

Ten horses are entered in this Grade I sprint, dominated by trainer Bob Baffert with five entrants. Below is a detailed breakdown of each, including post position (PP), recent finishes (described based on available form; most recent highlighted), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis incorporates pedigree, speed figures (Brisnet/Beyer where noted), and notes. Weights are 120 lbs unless noted, with allowances for non-winners.

Modus Bestia (PP 1, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (local specialist with 14% win rate; aggressive style).

Trainer: Richard Baltas (17% in sprints; focuses on consistent types).

Recent Finishes: Limited details; has shown form in allowance races but unproven in graded company.

Analysis: Maryland-bred 3-year-old colt with sprint pedigree. Strengths: Rail draw for ground-saving trip; could stalk early. Weaknesses: Class rise is significant; lower speed figures. Prospects: Value longshot; might hang for a piece if pace collapses.

Spenard (PP 2, ML 30/1)

Jockey: Tyler Baze (versatile with 14% win rate; good on underdogs).

Trainer: Dan L. McFarlane (15% overall; occasional stakes shipper).

Recent Finishes: Steady but non-winning in recent allowances.

Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old; tactical speed. Strengths: Inside post; barn’s patience. Weaknesses: Outclassed; long odds reflect form. Prospects: Exotic filler at best; unlikely to threaten top tier.

Madaket Road (PP 3, ML 5/1)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; big-race winner).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (30% in graded stakes; six-time Malibu winner).

Recent Finishes: Competitive in preps; solid placings.

Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old colt owned by SF Racing et al. Strengths: Versatile; jockey upgrade. Weaknesses: Needs to step up against barnmates. Prospects: Live contender; could rally for share in Baffert-dominated field.

Speedy Wilson (PP 4, ML 15/1)

Jockey: Armando Ayuso (journeyman with 12% win rate; hustles early).

Trainer: Philip D’Amato (24% on turf but adapts to dirt; consistent).

Recent Finishes: Placed in recent sprints; improving.

Analysis: California-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Local affinity; mid-pack flexible. Weaknesses: Graded unproven; faces tough Baffert wall. Prospects: Mid-odds value; exotic potential if speed holds.

Midland Money (PP 5, ML 7/2)

Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (22% win rate; California leader).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above; dominates sprints).

Recent Finishes: Strong allowances; blinkers on for focus.

Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old with speed pedigree. Strengths: Tactical position; barn’s hot streak. Weaknesses: Mid-draw traffic risk. Prospects: Co-favorite; strong win chance in open spot.

Berlin Wall (PP 6, ML 20/1)

Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (solid 13% win rate; aggressive).

Trainer: Steve R. Knapp (15% in allowances; local).

Recent Finishes: Consistent but minor awards.

Analysis: California-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Stamina edge. Weaknesses: Speed lacking for sprint; outer rivals tough. Prospects: Longshot for underneath; could close late.

Smooth Cruisein (PP 7, ML 30/1)

Jockey: Kyle Frey (14% win rate; suits pressers).

Trainer: Karen Headley (12% overall; family legacy).

Recent Finishes: Spotty form; occasional spark.

Analysis: Florida-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Upset potential. Weaknesses: Class hike steep; post forces wide. Prospects: Bomber; minor if favorites falter.

Cornucopian (PP 8, ML 7/2)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (25% win rate; Eclipse winner).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).

Recent Finishes: Debut win by 5 3/4 lengths at 6f Oaklawn (Brisnet 100, Beyer 101); 4th in Arkansas Derby (G1) after duel; 2nd in 1m AOC at Aqueduct.

Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old; blinkers off. Strengths: Impressive debut figures; bullet work (6f 1:12 4/5); cutback suits. Weaknesses: Tired in routes; adapts to sprint? Prospects: Top rebound candidate; predicted to win per analysis.

Barnes (PP 9, ML 3/1)

Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (21% win rate; strong finisher).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).

Recent Finishes: Won San Vicente (G2) and Perryville (G3); 3rd in H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1).

Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old at 122 lbs. Strengths: Proven at 7f; graded success. Weaknesses: Wide post; pressure from barnmates. Prospects: Favorite for reason; strong showing expected.

Goal Oriented (PP 10, ML 5/1)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; Hall of Famer).

Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).

Recent Finishes: Competitive in stakes preps; blinkers off.

Analysis: Kentucky-bred 3-year-old. Strengths: Upside; jockey’s prowess. Weaknesses: Outermost post risks wide trip. Prospects: Intriguing; could surprise in Baffert sweep.

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