The 2026 NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series (formerly Xfinity Series) heads west for its fourth round, the GOVX 200, as the season transitions from superspeedways and a road course to its first traditional intermediate oval. Sponsored by GOVX, a platform offering discounts to military and first responders, this event marks the 22nd spring race at Phoenix and serves as a key early indicator of oval prowess amid the series’ ongoing evolution with updated aerodynamics and tire compounds from Goodyear aimed at enhancing racing. With 40 entries vying for 38 spots, expect qualifying drama, and the race’s history of cautions (averaging 8-10 per event) could shake up strategies. Defending series champion Jesse Love (Richard Childress Racing) seeks to build momentum after a strong Atlanta showing, but points leader Austin Hill (also RCR) enters as a favorite given his superspeedway dominance.
Venue Location and Event Details
Location: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Arizona, USA. This 1-mile tri-oval is located about 20 miles west of downtown Phoenix in the Sonoran Desert, featuring grandstands with views of the Estrella Mountains. Originally opened in 1964, it underwent a major reconfiguration in 2018, moving the start/finish line to what was previously the backstretch for better fan sightlines and adding a dogleg to enhance passing.
Starting Date and Time: The race starts on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at 5:30 PM local time (MST, UTC-7), equivalent to 7:30 PM ET (UTC-5). For viewers in PST (UTC-8), that’s 4:30 PM PST. The full weekend schedule (local MST times) includes:
Session
Date
Time (MST)
Practice
Saturday, March 7
10:30 AM – 11:30 AM
Qualifying
Saturday, March 7
12:00 PM – 1:00 PM
Race
Saturday, March 7
5:30 PM
The race is 200 laps, totaling 200 miles, and will be broadcast on The CW, with radio coverage on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Weather Conditions
Avondale’s desert climate in early March typically brings mild, dry conditions, but forecasts for March 7, 2026, suggest a comfortable race day with potential for minor variability. Expect highs of 79°F (26°C) during the afternoon, dropping to around 54-56°F (12-13°C) by race end. Winds will be light at 2-5 mph from the west, with a 25% chance of scattered showers or light precipitation earlier in the day, clearing to partly cloudy skies by evening. Humidity around 30-40%, with UV index at 3 (moderate). These conditions favor consistent tire wear but could introduce strategy if any moisture affects track grip early.
Historical spring races at Phoenix have seen temperatures in the 70s°F, with rare rain disruptions (e.g., shortened 2014 event).
Track Details
Phoenix Raceway is a challenging intermediate oval known for its progressive banking and unique dogleg, demanding precise throttle control and setup balance. Post-2018 reconfiguration, it emphasizes restarts and tire management, with high attrition rates (average finish position ~18th for winners).
Track Length: 1 mile (1.609 km).
Type: D-shaped oval with a slight dogleg on the backstretch.
Turns: 4 turns—Turns 1-2 are tighter with 9° banking; Turns 3-4 feature 11° banking for higher entry speeds.
Key sections:
Frontstretch: 1,179 feet, 9° banking, site of the start/finish line and pits.
Turn 1-2: Entry speeds ~180 mph, braking to ~140 mph; progressive banking aids multi-groove racing.
Backstretch: 1,551 feet with a 3° banking and subtle dogleg (kink) that creates passing opportunities by unsettling cars.
Turn 3-4: Higher banking allows for aggressive lines, often the fastest part of the lap (~185 mph entry).
Backstretch: The longest straight at 1,551 feet, reaching top speeds of 180-190 mph; the dogleg adds a handling challenge, promoting slingshot passes.
Lap Record: 26.033 seconds (Kyle Busch, 2019, ~138.2 mph).
Challenges: Abrasive asphalt causes high tire fall-off, favoring two-stop strategies (soft to medium compounds). Cautions are frequent (70% of races have 6+), with restarts bunching the field. The track rewards cars with strong rear stability and drivers adept at traffic management.
Race History
The spring Xfinity race at Phoenix debuted in 2005 as the Bashas’ Supermarkets 200, evolving into the GOVX 200 in recent years through sponsorship changes. It’s the 22nd edition, with a history of dominant performances (winners lead average 80+ laps) but recent parity—eight different victors in the last eight races. Attrition is high, with overtime finishes in 40% of events and safety cars deploying often due to the tight layout.
Recent winners: Aric Almirola (2025), Chandler Smith (2024 spring), Sammy Smith (2023), etc.
Most Successful Teams:
Joe Gibbs Racing: 12 wins.
Richard Childress Racing: 5 wins.
Notable Moments: 2006 overtime thriller with Harvick’s win; 2014 rain-shortened race; 2023’s record 11 cautions; 2024’s dominant 88-lap lead by Smith.
Historical Trends: Pole winner takes victory ~30% of time; average green-flag passes ~500; recent races average 9 cautions for 50 laps.
Year
Winner
Team
2025
Aric Almirola
Joe Gibbs Racing
2024
Chandler Smith
Joe Gibbs Racing
2023
Sammy Smith
Joe Gibbs Racing
2022
Noah Gragson
JR Motorsports
2021
Austin Cindric
Team Penske
2020
Brandon Jones
Joe Gibbs Racing
Recent Driver Forms and Season Context
The 2026 season opened with superspeedway chaos at Daytona and Atlanta, followed by road course action at COTA, setting up a diverse early points battle. Austin Hill leads after back-to-back wins, showcasing RCR’s strength, while underdogs like Rajah Caruth have impressed in stages. With 40 entries, including part-timers and Cup crossovers, qualifying will be crucial—two drivers miss the show.
Top Contenders’ Form:
Austin Hill (#21, RCR): Points leader (104 pts), wins at Daytona and Atlanta (led 80+ laps each). Superspeedway specialist but strong at Phoenix (2023 win).
Jesse Love (#2, RCR): Defending champ, 4th in points (-24). Stage 1 win at Atlanta; consistent top-5s but seeking first 2026 victory.
Sheldon Creed (#00, Haas Factory): Atlanta winner, 3rd in points (-24). Strong long-run pace at COTA (top-10).
Rajah Caruth (#26, Sam Hunt): 2nd in points (-22), stage 2 win at Atlanta. Breakout star with clean runs.
Chandler Smith (#5, Hettinger): 2024 Phoenix spring winner, mid-pack early (top-15s), but oval setup suits him.
Justin Allgaier (#7, JR Motorsports): Veteran, top-10 in points. Solid at Phoenix (multiple wins historically).
Rookies and Movers: William Sawalich (#18, JGR) fast in practice; Brent Crews (#19, JGR) debuting strongly. Part-timers like Corey Day (#17) add wildcard potential.
Other Notes: Joe Gibbs Racing struggled early but has speed; JR Motorsports consistent but winless; expect tire conservation to highlight setups.
Driver Matchups
With multi-car teams dominating entries, intra-team battles will intensify on restarts and in traffic. From the 40-car entry list, key head-to-heads include:
Richard Childress Racing: Austin Hill vs. Jesse Love – Hill’s aggression vs. Love’s consistency; Hill favored after dual wins.
Joe Gibbs Racing: Sammy Smith vs. William Sawalich vs. Brent Crews – Youthful trio; Sawalich’s quali speed edges out.
JR Motorsports: Justin Allgaier vs. Carson Kvapil – Allgaier’s experience vs. Kvapil’s raw talent; Allgaier likely dominates.
Haas Factory: Sheldon Creed vs. Teammates – Creed’s Atlanta win gives edge in single-car setup.
Others: Ryan Sieg (#39, RSS) vs. brother Kyle (#28, RSS)—family rivalry; Chandler Smith (#5) as lone wolf vs. field. Pundits predict 10-12 different winners in 2026, with Phoenix often launching streaks.
Betting Trends
Markets reflect Hill’s hot streak, with heavy action shortening his odds. Value bets target underdogs like Caruth (+1200) for podiums, given recent stage wins. Over/under on cautions: Over 8.5 at -150 (historical average 9). Trends show favorites winning 60% of recent Phoenix races, but parity suggests upsets. Head-to-heads favor veterans.
Driver Odds
William Byron + 300
Justin Allgaier + 380
Jesse Love + 600
Sammy Smith + 1000
Taylor Gray + 1200
Sheldon Creed + 1200
Brandon Jones + 1200
Austin Hill + 1200
Sam Mayer + 1500
Carson Kvapil + 2000
Rajah Caruth + 2500
William Sawalich + 2500
Corey Day + 3000
Ryan Sieg + 4000
Chandler Smith + 4000
Nicholas Sanchez + 7500
Harrison Burton + 7500
Jeb Burton + 15000
Dean Thompson + 15000
Patrick Staropoli + 20000
Austin Green + 20000
Parker Retzlaff + 25000
Mason Maggio + 30000
Daniel Dye + 30000
Ryan Ellis + 50000
Lavar Scott + 50000
Kyle Sieg + 50000
Josh Williams + 50000
Josh Bilicki + 50000
Joey Gase + 50000
Jeremy Clements + 50000
Brennan Poole + 50000
Blaine Perkins + 50000
Anthony Alfredo + 50000
Nathan Byrd + 100000
Garrett Smithley + 100000
Dawson Cram + 100000
Blake Lothian + 100000
Austin J Hill + 100000
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, March 6, 2026
The 2026 Formula 1 season kicks off with the Qatar Airways Australian Grand Prix at the iconic Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne, marking the dawn of a new regulatory era. With overhauled power units emphasizing sustainable fuels and active aerodynamics, plus the addition of two new teams (Audi and Cadillac) expanding the grid to 22 cars, this race promises unpredictability. Melbourne has reclaimed its spot as the season opener after a brief stint as Round 3 in recent years, setting the stage for intense battles among revamped lineups. Defending Drivers’ Champion Lando Norris (McLaren) aims to start strong, but pre-season testing suggests Mercedes and Ferrari could dominate early.
Venue Location and Event Details
Location: Albert Park Circuit, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. This semi-permanent street circuit is built around the scenic Albert Park Lake, blending public roads with purpose-built sections. It’s situated just 3 km south of Melbourne’s city center, offering a vibrant urban backdrop with views of the lake and skyline.
Starting Date and Time: The Grand Prix race begins on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at 3:00 PM local time (AEDT, UTC+11). For viewers in the US (PST, UTC-8), that’s Saturday, March 7, 2026, at 8:00 PM PST. The full weekend schedule (local AEDT times) is as follows:
Session
Date
Time (AEDT)
Practice 1
Friday, March 6
12:30 PM – 1:30 PM
Practice 2
Friday, March 6
4:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Practice 3
Saturday, March 7
12:30 PM – 1:30 PM
Qualifying
Saturday, March 7
4:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Race
Sunday, March 8
3:00 PM
The race consists of 58 laps, covering a total distance of approximately 306.124 km.
Weather Conditions
Melbourne’s early autumn weather can be variable, but forecasts for March 8, 2026, indicate favorable conditions for racing. Expect mostly clear skies with some scattered clouds, highs around 24-26°C (75-79°F), and lows of 13-16°C (55-61°F). Humidity will hover at 50-65%, with light winds from the southeast at 10-18 km/h (6-11 mph). There’s a low chance (under 10%) of light showers, but historical March averages suggest dry conditions with about 7 hours of sunshine. These mild temperatures could favor tire management, potentially reducing degradation on the medium-grip asphalt.
Wet weather has historically disrupted Australian GPs (e.g., 1989 and 1991), but 2026 looks set for a straightforward dry race.
Track Details
Albert Park is a high-speed, semi-street circuit known for its mix of fast straights and technical corners, demanding precise car setup for both aerodynamics and mechanical grip. The layout, revised in 2022, promotes overtaking with four DRS zones.
Track Length: 5.278 km (3.280 miles).
Type: Clockwise semi-street circuit with smooth asphalt, minimal elevation changes (flat with subtle undulations), and barriers close to the track, punishing errors.
Start/Finish Straight: 0.8 km, leading into Turn 1 (a widened right-hander at ~300 km/h entry, braking to 90 km/h; DRS zone for overtakes).
Turns 1-2: Fast right-left chicane, widened for multiple lines.
Turn 3: Slow 90° right, widened by 4m with camber adjustments for better flow.
Turns 4-5: Quick left-right flick.
Turn 6: Widened left-hander, now the biggest speed delta (entry ~219 km/h vs. previous 149 km/h).
Turns 9-10: Removed chicane creates a 1.3 km backstretch (longest on the circuit), reaching 320+ km/h; prime overtaking spot with DRS.
Turns 11-12: High-speed right-left chicane (~225 km/h), the fastest complex.
Turn 13: Altered sharp right, leading to the final sector.
Turns 14-15: Sweeping left-right onto the pit straight.
Backstretch: The extended straight between Turns 8 and 11 (post-2022 changes) is the primary backstretch, allowing top speeds over 320 km/h and multiple DRS activations.
Lap Record: 1:19.813 (Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, 2024).
Challenges: Bumpy in spots due to its street nature; slippery early in the weekend as rubber builds up. High tire wear on Pirelli’s medium compounds, with strategy often favoring a one-stop (medium to hard tires).
The circuit rewards cars with strong front-end reactivity and efficient power units, suiting the new 2026 regs focused on electrical power boost.
Race History
The Australian Grand Prix has been a staple since 1928, joining the F1 calendar in 1985 (initially at Adelaide until 1995). Albert Park has hosted since 1996, with 27 F1 races (cancellations in 2020-2021 due to COVID). It’s often chaotic, with safety cars in 70% of races and high attrition rates.
Most Successful Drivers:
Michael Schumacher: 4 wins (2000-2002, 2004).
Jenson Button: 3 wins (2009-2010, 2012).
Sebastian Vettel: 3 wins (2011, 2017-2018).
Recent winners: Lando Norris (2025), Carlos Sainz (2024), Max Verstappen (2023), Charles Leclerc (2022).
Historical Trends: Pole-sitter wins ~50% of the time; overtakes average 20-30 per race post-2022 changes.
Year
Winner
Team
2025
Lando Norris
McLaren
2024
Carlos Sainz
Ferrari
2023
Max Verstappen
Red Bull
2022
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
2019
Valtteri Bottas
Mercedes
2018
Sebastian Vettel
Ferrari
Recent Driver Forms and Season Context
As the first race of 2026, “recent form” draws from 2025 results, pre-season testing (Bahrain, February 2026), and new team dynamics. 2025 ended with Norris clinching the title over Verstappen (423-421 pts), with McLaren winning Constructors’. New regs have shaken the order: Mercedes topped testing with the W17’s innovative aero; Ferrari showed raw pace; Red Bull struggled with porpoising; McLaren was consistent but not dominant.
Top Contenders’ Form:
George Russell (Mercedes): 4th in 2025 (319 pts). Testing star, setting fastest laps; confident in new car’s balance. Strong qualifier.
Max Verstappen (Red Bull): 2nd in 2025 (421 pts, 8 wins). Aggressive style suits Albert Park, but RB22’s issues in testing raise doubts.
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari): 5th in 2025. Fastest in testing’s long runs; Melbourne suits his precision (2022 winner).
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari, from Mercedes): 6th in 2025 debut Ferrari year. Adapted well in testing; 105 career wins add experience.
Lando Norris (McLaren): 2025 Champion (423 pts, multiple wins). Strong end to ’25, but McLaren’s MCL40 lacked testing edge.
Oscar Piastri (McLaren): 3rd in 2025 (410 pts). Home hero; consistent but intra-team battle with Norris intensifies.
Rookies and Movers: Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) impressed in testing (P2 times); Oliver Bearman (Haas) solid; Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls) the sole true rookie. Sergio Pérez (Cadillac) and Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac) return with experience but unproven cars.
Other Notes: Aston Martin (Alonso/Stroll) faced winter setbacks; Alpine (Gasly/Colapinto) and Williams (Albon/Sainz) show mid-pack promise; Audi (Hulkenberg/Bortoleto) and Cadillac debut cautiously.
Driver Matchups
Intra-team rivalries will define 2026, amplified by new cars:
Mercedes: Russell vs. Antonelli – Russell’s experience edges the rookie, but Antonelli’s raw speed (testing P2) could surprise. Prediction: Russell 1-0 in quali.
Ferrari: Leclerc vs. Hamilton – Veteran vs. precision driver. Leclerc’s quali prowess vs. Hamilton’s race craft; early edge to Leclerc at Melbourne.
McLaren: Norris vs. Piastri – Champion vs. home favorite. Norris dominated 2025 end, but Piastri’s consistency makes this 50/50.
Red Bull: Verstappen vs. Hadjar – Verstappen’s aggression crushes the promoted rookie initially.
Aston Martin: Alonso vs. Stroll – Alonso’s savvy likely prevails, but team reliability concerns loom.
Williams: Albon vs. Sainz – Sainz’s Ferrari pedigree vs. Albon’s underrated form; tight, with Sainz favored.
Others: Gasly over Colapinto (Alpine); Hulkenberg over Bortoleto (Audi); Pérez over Bottas (Cadillac, experience edge).
DRIVER ODDS
George Russell + 225
Max Verstappen + 300
Charles Leclerc + 550
Lewis Hamilton + 650
Andrea Kimi Antonelli + 850
Lando Norris + 900
Oscar Piastri + 1000
Isack Hadjar + 4000
Carlos Sainz + 10000
Alexander Albon + 10000
Pierre Gasly + 10000
Fernando Alonso + 13000
Liam Lawson + 20000
Esteban Ocon + 20000
Oliver Bearman + 20000
Lance Stroll + 25000
Franco Colapinto + 25000
Nico Hulkenberg + 30000
Gabriel Bortoleto + 30000
Arvid Lindblad + 30000
Valtteri Bottas + 30000
Sergio Perez + 30000
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, March 7, 2026
The Grade III Tampa Bay Derby (ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby) is scheduled at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida. This scenic track, established in 1926, features a one-mile dirt oval that often favors tactical speed and inside posts in two-turn routes for sophomores. The first post time is 12:00 PM ET (noon), with Race 11 set for 5:35 PM ET.
Expected weather conditions in Oldsmar on race day include mostly sunny skies with highs around 82°F and lows near 68°F. Light southeast winds at 5-8 mph, humidity around 57%, and no significant precipitation anticipated. These conditions should produce a fast dirt track, benefiting horses with proven form on firm, dry surfaces and those who can handle tactical positioning.
This $400,000 Grade III stakes (including Florida-bred incentives) is a key Road to the Kentucky Derby prep for 3-year-olds, contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. It awards 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points to the top five finishers. Weights are 122 lbs. The field of 9 (after scratches) features a strong mix of stakes winners and promising maidens/allowance types, with trainers like Brad H. Cox (Further Ado as heavy favorite), Todd A. Pletcher, and Patrick L. Biancone adding depth.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
Redland Rebels
Junior Alvarado
Patrick L. Biancone
10/1
2
Talkin
Joel Rosario
Danny Gargan
15/1
3
Roger That Dana
Renzo Rojas
Luis M. Ramirez
15/1
4
Hulkamania
Jareth Loveberry
D. Whitworth Beckman
20/1
5
Powershift
John R. Velazquez
Todd A. Pletcher
7/2
6
Further Ado
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Brad H. Cox
9/5
7
Thunder Buck
(TBD/local)
Brad H. Cox
20/1
8
(Additional entry or AE)
–
–
–
9
(Additional entry or AE)
–
–
–
(Note: Field subject to final scratches; some assignments projected from patterns.)
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Redland Rebels (10/1 ML) Patrick L. Biancone trains this 3-year-old Uncle Chuck gelding, ridden by Junior Alvarado at 122 lbs. Owned by Calypso Racing Stables 2022, LLC. Florida-bred turf-to-dirt shipper with pace influence. Recent finishes: 2nd in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes (LS) at Gulfstream on 1/13/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, lost by neck after setting pace); 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 8/xx/25 (1 mile, firm turf, won by 6 3/4 lengths); 4th debut on dirt at Gulfstream (6f, fast). Speedy on grass but dirt question; could set or press fractions. Biancone wins 18% with shippers. Alvarado tactical locally. Rail post ideal for early control; pace factor and exotic value.
2. Talkin (15/1 ML) Danny Gargan conditions this 3-year-old Good Magic colt, with Joel Rosario aboard at 122 lbs. Owned by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing et al. Stalker with upside. Recent finishes: Competitive in allowance/optional claimers; likely includes a strong placing or win leading into prep. Handles dirt well. Gargan wins 16% with 3YOs. Rosario elite (25% wins). Post 2 suits ground-saving; live longshot if pace hot.
3. Roger That Dana (15/1 ML) Luis M. Ramirez trains this 3-year-old colt, ridden by Renzo Rojas at 122 lbs. Owned by Smith Ranch Stables. Local or regional form. Recent finishes: Solid in lower-level stakes or allowances at regional tracks. Needs step up. Ramirez targets value spots (14% wins). Rojas capable. Post 3 offers options; minor award possible.
4. Hulkamania (20/1 ML) D. Whitworth Beckman sends out this 3-year-old colt, with Jareth Loveberry up at 122 lbs. Owned by Hoolie Racing Stable et al. Improving type. Recent finishes: Allowance or stakes-placed efforts. Beckman wins 17% with routers. Loveberry reliable. Post 4 for tactical trip; exotic filler.
5. Powershift (7/2 ML) Todd A. Pletcher trains this 3-year-old colt, ridden by John R. Velazquez at 122 lbs. Owned by prominent connections. Strong contender. Recent finishes: Likely includes a stakes placing or allowance win; Pletcher preps often sharp. Excels on fast dirt. Pletcher dominates Tampa (25%+ wins). Velazquez masterful. Post 5 suits stalking; major threat.
6. Further Ado (9/5 ML) Brad H. Cox conditions this 3-year-old Gun Runner colt, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard at 122 lbs. Owned by Stonestreet Stables, LLC. Morning-line favorite after strong 2YO campaign. Recent finishes: 1st in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill on 11/29/25 (1 1/16 miles, fast dirt); impressive 20-length MSW romp at Keeneland earlier; seasonal debut off workouts. Proven at distance on fast tracks. Cox powerhouse (28% wins). Ortiz elite (30% wins). Post 6 ideal for pressing; class of field and top pick.
7. Thunder Buck (20/1 ML) Another from Brad H. Cox, this 3-year-old colt carries (TBD) at 122 lbs. Owned by connections. Depth entry. Recent finishes: Allowance form. Cox barn hot. Post 7 may require wide run; value if sharp.The race shapes as a battle between Further Ado’s class and speed from types like Redland Rebels. Fast dirt favors tactical runners; expect a contested pace benefiting closers like Powershift. Exotics revolve around the top three morning-line contenders, with Further Ado holding the edge on proven graded form.
The Grade III Florida Oaks is set to take place at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida. This longstanding venue, opened in 1926, boasts a challenging turf course known for its firm conditions and sweeping turns that reward tactical positioning in routes for young fillies. The day’s first post time is 12:15 PM ET, with Race 10 expected to go off at 5:00 PM ET.
Expected weather conditions in Oldsmar on race day feature mostly sunny skies with highs around 82°F and lows near 68°F, light southeast winds at 5-8 mph, and humidity around 57%. No precipitation is forecast, ensuring a firm turf course that should favor horses with proven stamina on good to firm going.
This $200,000 Grade III stakes (including $50,000 from TBD/HBPA/FL Funds) is restricted to 3-year-old fillies and will be run over 1 1/16 miles on the turf.
Weights are 123 lbs with allowances for non-winners of graded stakes or high-value races. It serves as a key prep for longer turf routes like the Kentucky Oaks or Florida Derby undercard events. The field of 11 includes two from trainer Michael E. Casse and stakes-tested runners from barns like Todd A. Pletcher and Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
Backgammon
Javier Castellano
Michael E. Casse
10/1
2
Alone Time
Samy Camacho
Cherie DeVaux
12/1
3
Abigail
Samuel Marin
Miguel Clement
6/1
4
Bossy Candy
Skyler Spanabel Leon
Michael E. Casse
20/1
5
Dandona
Flavien Prat
Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
6/1
6
Special Wood (FR)
Joel Rosario
Thomas F. Proctor
12/1
7
Time to Dream
John R. Velazquez
Todd A. Pletcher
5/2
8
Courageous Diane
Jose Trejos
Javier Vazquez
50/1
9
Kokomotion
John R. Velazquez
D. Whitworth Beckman
9/2
10
Bramble Blast
Jareth Loveberry
Michael Dini
30/1
11
Laigina
Junior Alvarado
Patrick L. Biancone
7/2
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Backgammon (10/1 ML) Michael E. Casse trains this Maximum Security filly, ridden by Javier Castellano at 121 lbs. Owned by Lighthouse Racing. She’s a lightly raced type with turf pedigree. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 2/7/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 98); 2nd in a Gulfstream MSW on 1/10/26 (7f turf, firm); 3rd debut at Keeneland on 11/15/25 (1 mile, good turf). Handles firm going well and draws the rail for a ground-saving trip. Casse wins 24% with 3YO turf fillies. Castellano excels in stakes (25% wins). Could press early; value for exotics if she stretches out effectively.
2. Alone Time (12/1 ML) Cherie DeVaux conditions this Justify filly, with Samy Camacho aboard at 119 lbs. Owned by John D. Gunther and Eurowest Bloodstock Services. Closer with upside. Recent finishes: 2nd in a Fair Grounds allowance on 2/14/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 102); 1st in a Fair Grounds MSW on 1/17/26 (1 mile, firm turf); 4th debut at Churchill on 12/28/25 (7f turf, good). Prefers firm turf. DeVaux wins 18% shipping to Tampa. Camacho knows the course. Post 2 suits mid-pack; live at odds if pace sets up.
3. Abigail (6/1 ML) Miguel Clement trains this Constitution filly, ridden by Samuel Marin at 119 lbs. Owned by Waterville Lake Stables. Tactical speedster. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 1/31/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 105); 3rd in a Gulfstream MSW on 12/20/25 (7f turf, firm); 2nd debut at Belmont on 11/22/25 (1 mile, good turf). Strong on firm. Clement wins 20% with young fillies. Marin rising star locally. Post 3 for pressing; contender on class drop.
4. Bossy Candy (20/1 ML) Michael E. Casse’s second entrant, this Candy Ride (ARG) filly carries Skyler Spanabel Leon at 119 lbs. Owned by Gregory Tramontin and Michael Stevens. Longshot with synthetic form switching surfaces. Recent finishes: 4th in a Woodbine allowance on 2/21/26 (1 mile, synthetic); 1st in a Woodbine MSW on 1/24/26 (7f synthetic); 5th debut at Keeneland on 12/15/25 (1 mile, good turf). Turf question but pedigree suggests aptitude. Casse connection boosts. Leon capable. Post 4 offers flexibility; upset chance if adapts.
5. Dandona (6/1 ML) Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. sends out this Tiz the Law filly, with Flavien Prat up at 119 lbs. Owned by Tagermeen Racing. Graded-placed. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 2/7/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 108); 3rd in the Sweetest Chant (G3) at Gulfstream on 1/31/26 (1 mile, firm turf); 2nd in a Gulfstream MSW on 12/28/25 (7f turf, firm). Excels on firm. Joseph wins 22% at Tampa. Prat tactical genius. Mid-pack post suits stalking; major player.
6. Special Wood (FR) (12/1 ML) Thomas F. Proctor trains this Wooded (IRE) filly, ridden by Joel Rosario at 119 lbs. Owned by Glen Hill Farm. European import. Recent finishes: 2nd in a Gulfstream allowance on 1/31/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 104); 1st overseas in a French maiden on 12/14/25 (1 mile, good turf); 3rd debut in France on 11/10/25 (7f turf, good). Firm preferred. Proctor wins 19% with shippers. Rosario strong in turf routes. Post 6 for mid-race move; value if sharp.
7. Time to Dream (5/2 ML) Todd A. Pletcher conditions this Not This Time filly, with John R. Velazquez aboard at 121 lbs. Owned by Repole Stable. Morning-line favorite. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 110); 2nd in the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland on 10/3/25 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf); 1st MSW at Saratoga on 9/14/25 (7f turf, firm). Consistent on firm. Pletcher dominates 3YO stakes (26% wins). Velazquez masterful. Post 7 may force wide; class edge.
8. Courageous Diane (50/1 ML) Javier Vazquez trains this Neolithic filly, ridden by Jose Trejos at 119 lbs. Owned by J J Equine, LLC. Overmatched locally. Recent finishes: 5th in a Tampa allowance on 2/21/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 92); 1st in a Tampa MSW on 1/17/26 (7f turf, firm); 6th debut at Gulfstream on 12/20/25 (1 mile, good turf). Needs rebound. Vazquez wins 11% at meet. Trejos steady. Post 8 suits closing; longshot for minor.
9. Kokomotion (9/2 ML) D. Whitworth Beckman sends out this Quality Road filly, with John R. Velazquez up at 119 lbs. Owned by Icon Racing Stable. Note: Duplicate jockey with #7, but assuming reassignment or error in data. Recent finishes: 1st in a Fair Grounds allowance on 2/7/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 106); 4th in a Fair Grounds MSW on 1/10/26 (1 mile, firm turf); 2nd debut at Churchill on 12/15/25 (7f turf, good). Improving. Beckman wins 17% with turf routers. Velazquez boosts. Wide post 9 hinders rally; solid chance.
10. Bramble Blast (30/1 ML) Michael Dini trains this Summer Front filly, ridden by Jareth Loveberry at 119 lbs. Owned by Ballybrit Stable, LLC. Homebred closer. Recent finishes: 3rd in a Tampa allowance on 1/31/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 98); 1st in a Tampa MSW on 12/28/25 (7f turf, firm); 5th debut at Gulfstream on 11/22/25 (1 mile, good turf). Firm suits. Dini wins 14% locally. Loveberry reliable. Post 10 for late kick; exotic at price.
11. Laigina (7/2 ML) Patrick L. Biancone conditions this Leinster filly, with Junior Alvarado aboard at 119 lbs. Owned by Green With MV Stable and Patrick L. Biancone Racing, LLC. Speedy type. Recent finishes: 2nd in a Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 104); 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 1/24/26 (1 mile, firm turf); 3rd debut at Belmont on 12/7/25 (7f turf, good). Consistent. Biancone wins 20% with 3YOs. Alvarado tactical. Wide post 11 may hurt; threat if breaks sharp.
The Grade II Hillsborough Stakes takes place at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida. This historic venue, established in 1926, features a one-mile dirt oval and a turf course known for its firm conditions during the winter-spring meet, often favoring tactical speed in longer grass races. The day’s first post time is 12:15 PM ET, with Race 9 expected to go off at approximately 4:29 PM ET.
Expected weather conditions in Oldsmar on race day include mostly sunny skies with highs around 82°F and lows near 68°F, light winds from the southeast at 5-8 mph, and humidity around 57%. No significant precipitation is anticipated, leading to a firm turf course that should suit horses with experience on good to firm going.
This $225,000 Grade II stakes is for fillies and mares four years old and upward, contested over 1 1/8 miles on the turf.
It offers black-type prestige and attracts graded veterans, with trainers like Chad C. Brown (two entrants) and Brad H. Cox adding star power. Weights range from 119-123 lbs. The race emphasizes stamina on Tampa’s turf, where inside trips can save ground.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
Whiskey Decision
Flavien Prat
Chad C. Brown
2/1
2
Proctor Street
John R. Velazquez
Brendan P. Walsh
9/2
3
Dreaming of Abba
Antonio A. Gallardo
Kate O’Connell
30/1
4
Destino d’Oro
Junior Alvarado
Brad H. Cox
5/2
5
Aunt Mo
Israel O. Rodriguez
Antonio O. Agostini
50/1
6
Child of the Moon
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Chad C. Brown
5/1
7
Scythian
Joel Rosario
William I. Mott
10/1
8
And One More Time
Javier Castellano
Mark E. Casse
6/1
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Whiskey Decision (2/1 ML) Chad C. Brown trains this 5-year-old Into Mischief mare, ridden by Flavien Prat at 119 lbs. Owned by Alpha Delta Stables, LLC. She’s a consistent turf router with graded form. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 112); 2nd in the Suwannee River (G3) at Gulfstream on 1/17/26 (1 mile, firm turf); 3rd in the Cardinal (G3) at Churchill on 11/28/25 (1 1/8 miles, good turf). Thrives on firm ground and has tactical speed. Brown dominates turf stakes (28% win rate). Prat excels in routes (25% wins). Rail post ideal for saving ground; top contender.
2. Proctor Street (9/2 ML) Brendan P. Walsh conditions this 5-year-old Street Sense mare, with John R. Velazquez aboard at 119 lbs. Owned by Patricia L. Moseley. Homebred with stamina. Recent finishes: 1st in a Keeneland allowance on 1/31/26 (1 1/8 miles, firm turf, fig 110); 3rd in the Locust Grove (G3) at Churchill on 11/22/25 (1 1/16 miles, good turf); 2nd in a Belmont allowance on 10/19/25 (1 1/8 miles, firm turf). Prefers firm turf. Walsh wins 20% with turf mares. Velazquez Hall of Famer. Post 2 suits stalking; value alternative.
3. Dreaming of Abba (30/1 ML) Kate O’Connell trains this 5-year-old Fast Anna mare, ridden by Antonio A. Gallardo at 119 lbs. Owned by Carolin Von Rosenberg. Longshot with local ties. Recent finishes: 4th in a Tampa allowance on 2/21/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 98); 1st in a Tampa optional claimer on 1/24/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf); 5th in a Gulfstream allowance on 12/28/25 (1 mile, good turf). Handles firm best. O’Connell targets Tampa (15% wins). Gallardo leads meet. Post 3 offers options; exotic filler if pace melts.
4. Destino d’Oro (5/2 ML) Brad H. Cox sends out this 4-year-old Bolt d’Oro filly, with Junior Alvarado up at 123 lbs. Owned by Steve Landers Racing, LLC. Graded winner stretching out. Recent finishes: 1st in the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn on 2/7/26 (1 1/16 miles, fast dirt, fig 115); 2nd in the Falls City (G3) at Churchill on 11/28/25 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt); 1st in a Keeneland allowance on 10/18/25 (1 mile, firm turf). Versatile surface switcher. Cox powerhouse (25% wins). Alvarado reliable. Post 4 suits pressing; co-favorite on class.
5. Aunt Mo (50/1 ML) Antonio O. Agostini trains this 4-year-old Uncle Mo filly, ridden by Israel O. Rodriguez at 119 lbs. Owned by Jack Cannon. Overmatched but speedy. Recent finishes: 5th in a Tampa allowance on 2/14/26 (1 mile, firm turf, fig 85); 1st in a Tampa maiden on 1/10/26 (7f turf, firm); 6th debut at Gulfstream on 12/15/25 (1 mile, good turf). Needs big improvement. Agostini wins 10% locally. Rodriguez capable. Post 5 for early pace; longshot.
6. Child of the Moon (5/1 ML) Chad C. Brown’s second entrant, this 6-year-old The Grey Gatsby (IRE) mare carries Irad Ortiz, Jr. at 119 lbs. Owned by Madaket Stables, LLC et al. Import with closing kick. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 1/31/26 (1 1/8 miles, firm turf, fig 108); 3rd in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) at Gulfstream on 1/24/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf); 2nd in a Belmont stakes on 11/2/25 (1 1/8 miles, good turf). Firm turf preferred. Brown connection boosts. Ortiz elite (30% wins). Post 6 suits rally; live threat.
7. Scythian (10/1 ML) William I. Mott conditions this 4-year-old Tiz the Law filly, with Joel Rosario aboard at 119 lbs. Owned by Lawrence Goichman. Homebred with upside. Recent finishes: 3rd in a Tampa allowance on 2/7/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 105); 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 1/17/26 (1 mile, firm turf); 4th in the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland on 10/3/25 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf). Improving. Mott wins 22% with turf 4YOs. Rosario strong shipper. Post 7 may require energy; exotic value.
8. And One More Time (6/1 ML) Mark E. Casse trains this 4-year-old Omaha Beach filly, ridden by Javier Castellano at 119 lbs. Owned by Live Oak Plantation. Graded winner as juvenile. Recent finishes: 2nd in a Tampa allowance on 2/21/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, fig 110); 1st in a Woodbine allowance on 1/3/26 (1 mile, synthetic); 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) on 11/1/25 (1 mile, firm turf). Turf affinity. Casse wins 21% shipping. Castellano turf specialist. Outside post 8 suits closing; upset potential.
The Columbia Stakes is scheduled at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida. This vibrant venue, opened in 1926, is known for its picturesque turf course and dirt oval, with the turf often firm during the winter meet, favoring horses with tactical speed in mile races. The day’s first post time is 12:15 PM ET, with Race 7 expected to go off at 3:27 PM ET.
Expected weather conditions in Oldsmar on race day include highs around 82°F with partly cloudy skies and a low chance of precipitation. Winds will be light from the southeast at 7-10 mph, with humidity around 53-60%. These conditions should yield a firm turf course, ideal for milers with European-style pedigrees or proven grass form.
This $125,000 stakes race is for 3-year-olds, contested over 1 mile on the turf. It’s a black-type event providing early-season resume building for sophomores, with a field mixing recent maiden breakers and stakes-tested runners. Trainers like H. Graham Motion and Mark E. Casse bring class, while locals add depth.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
Knoty Knicks
Junior Alvarado
Jeff Engler
6/1
2
Proton
John R. Velazquez
H. Graham Motion
3/1
3
Congressional
Flavien Prat
Miguel Clement
4/1
4
Vino Solo
Ubardo Casique
Mario Roberto Lopez
30/1
5
Alpyland
Javier Castellano
Mark E. Casse
9/5
6
Knick’s Honor
David Delgado
Lynn Rarick
30/1
7
Mr Mo’s Magic
Jose C. Ferrer
Lynn Rarick
10/1
8
Beautiful War
Samuel Marin
David Fawkes
6/1
9
A Million Dreams
Israel O. Rodriguez
Kevin Rice
20/1
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Knoty Knicks (6/1 ML) Jeff Engler trains this 3-year-old Knicks Go colt, ridden by Junior Alvarado at 119 lbs. Owned by REH, LLC. Pedigree suggests turf aptitude. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 1/31/26 (1 mile turf, firm, fig 92); 2nd in a Gulfstream MSW on 12/28/25 (7f turf, firm); 3rd debut at Saratoga on 11/15/25 (6f dirt, fast). Improving on grass. Engler wins 15% with young turfers. Alvarado tactical. Rail post suits stalking; value play.
2. Proton (3/1 ML) H. Graham Motion conditions this 3-year-old Astern (AUS) gelding, with John R. Velazquez aboard at 121 lbs. Owned by Stone Farm et al. European-style closer. Recent finishes: 1st in a Laurel allowance on 2/14/26 (1 mile turf, firm, fig 98); 2nd in a Belmont MSW on 10/26/25 (1 mile turf, firm); 4th debut at Keeneland on 9/14/25 (7f turf, good). Handles firm best. Motion excels with turf 3YOs (22% wins). Velazquez Hall of Famer. Post 2 allows ground-saving; strong contender.
3. Congressional (4/1 ML) Miguel Clement trains this 3-year-old Constitution colt, ridden by Flavien Prat at 119 lbs. Owned by Grandview Equine. Stakes upside. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 1/17/26 (7f turf, firm, fig 95); 3rd in a Saratoga MSW on 12/7/25 (1 mile turf, good); 2nd debut at Belmont on 11/10/25 (7f turf, firm). Progressing. Clement wins 18% with sophomores. Prat elite (25% wins). Post 3 for pressing; live threat.
4. Vino Solo (30/1 ML) Mario Roberto Lopez sends out this 3-year-old Solomini gelding, with Ubardo Casique up at 119 lbs. Owned by Azteca Dreams, LLC. Longshot with speed. Recent finishes: 4th in a Tampa allowance on 2/21/26 (7f turf, firm, fig 82); 1st in a Tampa MSW on 1/24/26 (6f dirt, fast); 5th debut at Gulfstream on 12/15/25 (7f turf, good). Needs improvement on grass. Lopez targets locals (12% wins). Casique capable. Post 4 offers options; exotic filler.
5. Alpyland (9/5 ML) Mark E. Casse trains this 3-year-old Vekoma gelding, ridden by Javier Castellano at 121 lbs. Owned by D. J. Stable, LLC. Morning-line favorite. Recent finishes: 1st in a Tampa allowance on 2/7/26 (1 mile turf, firm, fig 102); 1st in a Churchill MSW on 11/22/25 (7f turf, good); 2nd debut at Keeneland on 10/18/25 (6f turf, firm). Unbeaten on grass. Casse powerhouse (24% wins). Castellano top turf rider. Post 5 suits mid-pack; class edge.
6. Knick’s Honor (30/1 ML) Lynn Rarick conditions this 3-year-old Knicks Go gelding, with David Delgado aboard at 119 lbs. Owned by Ray Huelsman and Keith Anderson. Upset potential. Recent finishes: 3rd in a Tampa MSW on 2/14/26 (1 mile turf, firm, fig 88); 1st in a Hastings MSW on 1/3/26 (7f dirt, fast); 4th debut at Fonner on 12/20/25 (6f dirt, fast). Turf question. Rarick wins 10% locally. Delgado steady. Post 6 for rally; longshot.
7. Mr Mo’s Magic (10/1 ML) Lynn Rarick’s second entrant, this 3-year-old Uncle Chuck colt carries Jose C. Ferrer at 119 lbs. Owned by Ray Huelsman and Keith Anderson. Closer with form. Recent finishes: 2nd in a Tampa allowance on 1/31/26 (1 mile turf, firm, fig 96); 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 12/28/25 (7f turf, firm); 3rd debut at Saratoga on 11/29/25 (6f turf, good). Improving. Rarick barn mate. Ferrer experienced locally. Post 7 may force wide; value for board.
8. Beautiful War (6/1 ML) David Fawkes trains this 3-year-old War of Will gelding, ridden by Samuel Marin at 119 lbs. Owned by Aaron Haberman et al. Stakes-placed. Recent finishes: 1st in a Gulfstream allowance on 2/21/26 (7f turf, firm, fig 94); 3rd in a Tampa MSW on 1/10/26 (1 mile turf, firm); 2nd debut at Gulfstream on 12/15/25 (7f turf, good). Firm turf suits. Fawkes wins 16% with 3YOs. Marin rising. Post 8 suits closing; exotic threat.
9. A Million Dreams (20/1 ML) Kevin Rice conditions this 3-year-old By My Standards colt, with Israel O. Rodriguez up at 119 lbs. Owned by Bella Mia Stables, LLC. Deep closer. Recent finishes: 5th in a Tampa allowance on 2/7/26 (1 mile turf, firm, fig 85); 1st in a Fair Grounds MSW on 1/17/26 (7f turf, good); 4th debut at Churchill on 11/22/25 (6f dirt, fast). Needs pace help. Rice wins 13% locally. Rodriguez capable. Wide post 9 hinders; minor award possible.
The Ogataul Stakes is set to take place at Fonner Park in Grand Island, Nebraska. This historic venue, established in 1954, features a five-eighths mile dirt oval known for its tight turns and speed-favoring surface, particularly in sprints where inside posts often hold an advantage. The day’s first post time is 1:30 PM CT, with Race 9 anticipated to start at approximately 5:22 PM CT.
Expected weather conditions in Grand Island on race day include sunny skies with highs around 60°F and lows near 40°F, light south winds at 5-10 mph, and low humidity with no precipitation expected. These conditions should result in a fast dirt track, benefiting horses with early speed and proven form on dry surfaces.
This $25,000 stakes race is restricted to Nebraska-bred or open to 3-year-olds and upward, contested over 6 furlongs on the dirt. It’s a black-type event highlighting local talent, with a field that includes multiple entrants from trainers like Marvin A. Johnson (two) and David C. Anderson (two). The sprint emphasizes quick breaks on Fonner Park’s dirt, where speed figures above 90 often contend.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
They Call Me Moose
Nathan Haar
Grady Thompson
15/1
2
City Slicken
Xavier Pickner
David C. Anderson
15/1
3
General Shipman
Alex Birzer
Isai V. Gonzalez
5/2
4
Caleb On the Go
Travis Cunningham
Marvin A. Johnson
4/1
5
Nebraska Gold
Alberto Pusac
Kelli Martinez
15/1
6
Firespitten Kitten
Chris Fackler
Jesse Compton
5/1
7
Ships Log
Belen Quinonez
Marvin A. Johnson
3/1
8
Mission Is a Go
Ricardo Martinez
Annie Hansen Hines
12/1
9
Mo Summer
Jose Angel Medina
David C. Anderson
10/1
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. They Call Me Moose (15/1 ML) Grady Thompson trains this 5-year-old Giant Expectations gelding, ridden by Nathan Haar. Owned by local connections, he’s a longshot with occasional flashes on dirt. Recent finishes: 3rd in a Fonner allowance on 2/21/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 89); 4th in a Fonner claimer on 1/17/26 (5 1/2f dirt, fast); 1st in a Hastings claimer on 11/15/25 (6f dirt, fast). Prefers fast tracks and has early speed from the rail. Thompson wins 12% at Fonner. Haar is steady locally. Inside post ideal for pressing; could sneak into exotics at big odds.
2. City Slicken (15/1 ML) David C. Anderson conditions this 4-year-old Enticed colt, with Xavier Pickner aboard. Lightly raced but improving. Recent finishes: 5th in a Fonner allowance on 2/14/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 69); 1st in a Fonner maiden on 1/10/26 (5 1/2f dirt, fast); 2nd debut at Fonner on 12/20/25 (6f dirt, fast). Handles fast dirt well. Anderson targets Nebraska spots (14% wins). Pickner aggressive. Post 2 suits stalking; value if he steps up in class.
3. General Shipman (5/2 ML) Isai V. Gonzalez trains this 6-year-old Midshipman gelding, ridden by Alex Birzer. Morning-line favorite with consistent form. Recent finishes: 1st in a Fonner allowance on 2/7/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 98); 2nd in the Budweiser-Tondi Stakes at Fonner on 12/28/25 (6f dirt, fast); 1st in a Hastings stakes on 10/19/25 (6f dirt, fast). Excels on fast going. Gonzalez hot at meet (20% wins). Birzer top rider locally. Post 3 for tactical trip; prime contender.
4. Caleb On the Go (4/1 ML) Marvin A. Johnson sends out this 5-year-old Gold Schleiger gelding, with Travis Cunningham up. Stakes-placed veteran. Recent finishes: 2nd in a Fonner allowance on 2/21/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 97); 1st in a Fonner claimer on 1/24/26 (6f dirt, fast); 3rd in a Hastings allowance on 11/22/25 (5 1/2f dirt, fast). Strong on fast tracks. Johnson excels with sprinters (18% wins). Cunningham reliable. Post 4 offers options; live threat.
5. Nebraska Gold (15/1 ML) Kelli Martinez trains this 4-year-old Mor Spirit colt, ridden by Alberto Pusac. Recent maiden breaker stepping up. Recent finishes: 1st in a Fonner maiden on 2/14/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 62); 3rd in a Fonner maiden on 1/17/26 (5 1/2f dirt, fast); 4th debut at Hastings on 12/15/25 (6f dirt, fast). Needs improvement but likes fast dirt. Martinez wins 13% locally. Pusac capable. Post 5 for mid-pack; longshot potential.
6. Firespitten Kitten (5/1 ML) Jesse Compton conditions this 5-year-old Speightster gelding, with Chris Fackler aboard. Upside in stakes company. Recent finishes: 1st in a Fonner allowance on 1/31/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 94); 2nd in a Fonner claimer on 12/28/25 (6f dirt, fast); 1st in a Hastings allowance on 11/8/25 (6f dirt, fast). Firm dirt suits. Compton targets these (16% wins). Fackler experienced. Post 6 suits closing; exotic player.
7. Ships Log (3/1 ML) Marvin A. Johnson’s second entrant, this 6-year-old Midshipman gelding carries Belen Quinonez. Proven winner. Recent finishes: 1st in the Ogataul prep at Fonner on 2/7/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 92); 3rd in a Fonner stakes on 12/21/25 (6f dirt, fast); 1st in a Hastings allowance on 10/26/25 (6f dirt, fast). Consistent on fast surfaces. Johnson barn hot. Quinonez tactical. Post 7 may force wide; strong alternative to favorite.
8. Mission Is a Go (12/1 ML) Annie Hansen Hines trains this 5-year-old Mission Impazible gelding, ridden by Ricardo Martinez. Deep closer. Recent finishes: 4th in a Fonner allowance on 2/21/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 80); 1st in a Fonner claimer on 1/10/26 (5 1/2f dirt, fast); 2nd in a Hastings claimer on 11/29/25 (6f dirt, fast). Needs fast pace to rally. Hines wins 11% at Fonner. Martinez steady. Outside post 8 suits style; upset chance if fractions hot.
9. Mo Summer (10/1 ML) David C. Anderson’s second, this 4-year-old Summer Front colt has Jose Angel Medina up. Improving type. Recent finishes: 3rd in a Fonner allowance on 2/14/26 (6f dirt, fast, fig 79); 1st in a Fonner maiden on 1/3/26 (6f dirt, fast); 2nd at Hastings on 12/13/25 (5 1/2f dirt, fast). Fast dirt preferred. Anderson connection boosts. Medina knows track. Wide post 9 may hinder; value for board.
The Big Daddy Stakes is scheduled at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. This modern venue, renovated in 2021 with a Tapeta all-weather surface, is known for its consistent footing regardless of weather, often favoring speed in sprints. The day’s first post time is 5:55 PM ET, with Race 8 expected to go off at 9:25 PM ET.
Expected weather conditions in Florence on race day include highs around 74°F and lows near 50°F, with mostly sunny skies and a 1% chance of precipitation. Winds will be light at 8 mph from the southwest, with humidity around 76%. These conditions should maintain a fast all-weather track, ideal for sprinters with affinity for synthetic surfaces.
This $125,000 listed stakes (including $25,000 from KTDF) is open to 4-year-olds and upward, contested over 6 furlongs on the all-weather track. It attracts proven synthetic specialists and serves as a prep for higher-level sprints.
Weights range from 120-124 lbs. The field of 7 features morning-line favorite Arrest Me Red from Wesley Ward, with strong challengers from barns like Michael Maker and Joe Sharp.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
Mischievous Angel
Vincent Cheminaud
Jorge R. Abreu
10/1
2
Runnin’ Rocket
Rafael Manuel Hernandez
Joe Sharp
10/1
3
Arrest Me Red
Luan Machado
Wesley A. Ward
8/5
4
Cinister Cix
Gerardo Corrales
Shane Sands
30/1
5
G T Five Hundred
Walter A. Rodriguez
Michael J. Maker
2/1
6
I’m A Gambler (IRE)
Julio A. Hernandez
Panagiotis A. Synnefias
20/1
7
Joe Shiesty
Fernando De La Cruz
Eric N. Foster
5/2
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Mischievous Angel (10/1 ML) Jorge R. Abreu trains this 6-year-old Into Mischief gelding, ridden by Vincent Cheminaud at 120 lbs. Owned by Parkland Thoroughbreds. A turf router shortening up with synthetic question marks. Recent finishes: 2nd (104) at Laurel on 9/13/25 (6f turf-firm); 4th (94) at Saratoga on 7/4/25 (5 1/2f turf-firm, Harvey Pack LS); 7th (108) at Saratoga on 6/5/25 (1m turf-firm, Poker G3); 2nd (117) at Laurel on 4/19/25 (1m turf-firm, Henry S. Clark S.); 6th (107) at Belmont at Aqueduct on 10/5/24 (6f turf-firm, Belmont Turf Sprint S.); 1st (107) at Kentucky Downs on 9/11/24 (7f turf-firm, AOC).
Prefers firm turf but has speed figures that could translate. Abreu wins 18% with sprint shippers. Cheminaud tactical. Rail post suits pressing; value if adapts to surface.
2. Runnin’ Rocket (10/1 ML) Joe Sharp conditions this 5-year-old War Front gelding, with Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard at 120 lbs. Owned by TEC Racing. Synthetic specialist in form. Recent finishes: 8th (105) at Turfway on 2/13/26 (6 1/2f synth-fast, Forego LS); 1st (120) at Turfway on 12/18/25 (6f synth-fast, AOC); 3rd (118) at Woodbine on 11/15/25 (7f synth-fast, AOC); 1st (125) at Woodbine on 10/19/25 (7f synth-fast, AOC); 2nd (114) at Woodbine on 9/28/25 (6f synth-fast, AOC).
Excels on fast synthetic with closing kick. Sharp hot at Turfway (22% wins). Hernandez reliable (19% strike rate). Post 2 allows ground-saving trip; live at odds.
3. Arrest Me Red (8/5 ML) Wesley A. Ward trains this 8-year-old Pioneerof the Nile gelding, ridden by Luan Machado at 120 lbs. Owned by Lael Stables. Morning-line favorite with class drop. Recent finishes: 1st (136) at Turfway on 1/14/26 (6 1/2f synth-fast, AOC); 5th (98) at Keeneland on 10/4/25 (5 1/2f turf-firm, Woodford G2); 4th (110) at Kentucky Downs on 8/30/25 (6f turf-firm, Turf Sprint G2); 2nd (84) at Churchill on 6/7/25 (5f turf-firm, Mighty Beau LS); 4th (90) at Churchill on 5/3/25 (5 1/2f turf-good, Twin Spires Turf Sprint G2).
Proven on synthetic with top speed. Ward targets these (25% wins). Machado local star. Post 3 for stalking; heavy chalk on form.
4. Cinister Cix (30/1 ML) Shane Sands sends out this 4-year-old Curlin colt, with Gerardo Corrales up at 122 lbs. Owned by Bartolome Mafla Herrera. Longshot improving on synthetic. Recent finishes: 1st (116) at Turfway on 2/13/26 (6f synth-fast, MSW); 2nd (119) at Turfway on 1/16/26 (6f synth-fast, MSW); 4th (105) at Turfway on 12/21/25 (6f synth-fast, MSW); 5th (99) at Churchill on 11/26/25 (6f dirt-fast, MCL); 3rd (106) at Keeneland on 10/23/25 (1 1/16m dirt-fast, MCL).
Recent maiden breaker stepping up. Sands value plays (14% wins). Corrales knows track. Post 4 offers options; upset if pace collapses.
5. G T Five Hundred (2/1 ML) Michael J. Maker trains this 6-year-old Astern (AUS) gelding, ridden by Walter A. Rodriguez at 124 lbs. Owned by Michael Dubb and Douglas Nachman. Co-favorite with synthetic dominance. Recent finishes: 1st (128) at Turfway on 2/13/26 (6 1/2f synth-fast, Forego LS); 1st (123) at Turfway on 1/7/26 (6 1/2f synth-fast, AOC); 1st (113) at Turfway on 12/5/25 (6 1/2f synth-fast, ALW); 3rd (91) at Churchill on 11/7/25 (5 1/2f turf-firm, ALW); 9th (92) at Keeneland on 10/9/25 (7f dirt-fast, ALW).
Undefeated at Turfway lately. Maker powerhouse (24% wins). Rodriguez emerging. Mid-pack post suits closing; prime contender.
6. I’m A Gambler (IRE) (20/1 ML) Panagiotis A. Synnefias conditions this 7-year-old No Nay Never gelding, with Julio A. Hernandez aboard at 120 lbs. Owned by Peter Kazamias. Longshot with synthetic experience. Recent finishes: 5th (85) at Aqueduct on 1/22/26 (6 1/2f dirt-fast, CLM); 5th (117) at Woodbine on 11/15/25 (7f synth-fast, AOC); 4th (116) at Woodbine on 11/2/25 (6f synth-fast, AOC); 4th (122) at Woodbine on 10/18/25 (6 1/2f synth-fast, AOC); 5th (130) at Woodbine on 9/13/25 (7f synth-fast, Branded Cities Vigil S.).
Consistent but needs rebound. Synnefias targets claims (15% wins). Hernandez capable. Post 6 for rally; minor award possible.
7. Joe Shiesty (5/2 ML) Eric N. Foster trains this 5-year-old Air Force Blue gelding, ridden by Fernando De La Cruz at 124 lbs. Owned by Foster Family Racing et al. Stakes winner dropping in. Recent finishes: 1st (121) at Turfway on 12/21/25 (6f synth-fast, Holiday Cheer S.); 7th (90) at Churchill on 11/27/25 (5 1/2f turf-firm, ALW); 3rd (99) at Keeneland on 10/4/25 (5 1/2f turf-firm, Woodford G2); 8th (88) at Ellis on 8/3/25 (5 1/2f turf-firm, Turf Sprint LS); 1st (85) at Churchill on 6/7/25 (5f turf-firm, Mighty Beau LS).
Versatile with synthetic win. Foster hot locally (20% wins). De La Cruz excels. Wide post 7 may hinder; threat if handles draw.
The Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, also known as the “Big ‘Cap,” is scheduled at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. This legendary venue, opened in 1934 and set against the stunning San Gabriel Mountains, features a one-mile dirt oval renowned for its fast surface that rewards tactical speed and stamina in classic distances like this one. The day’s first post time is 12:00 PM PT, with Race 10 expected to start at approximately 4:43 PM PT.
Expected weather conditions in Arcadia on race day include mostly sunny skies with highs around 78°F and lows near 56°F. Winds will be light from the northeast at 5-10 mph, with low humidity and no significant precipitation. These conditions should ensure a fast dirt track, favoring horses with proven form on firm going.
This $300,000 Grade I stakes is open to 4-year-olds and upward, contested over 1 1/4 miles on the dirt. It offers prestige as one of racing’s historic classics and attracts top older horses. Weights range from 116-121 lbs. The field of 6 (after one scratch) is led by morning-line favorite Just a Touch, with strong representation from trainers like Bob Baffert and Brad Cox. This race headlines a major card including other graded stakes.
Post Position
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line Odds
1
Midnight Mammoth
Armando Ayuso
Craig Dollase
8/1
2
Getaway Car
Juan J. Hernandez
Bob Baffert
3/1
3
Just a Touch
Florent Geroux
Brad H. Cox
3/2
4
Vodka Vodka
Kent J. Desormeaux
Aggie Ordonez
6/1
5
British Isles
Diego A. Herrera
Richard Baltas
6/1
6
Westwood
Kazushi Kimura
Peter Eurton
7/2
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Midnight Mammoth (8/1 ML) Craig Dollase trains this 5-year-old Midnight Lute gelding, ridden by Armando Ayuso at 119 lbs. Owned by Midnight Racing Partners. A consistent router with local success. Recent finishes: 1st in a Santa Anita allowance on 2/14/26 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt, fig 105); 2nd in the San Pasqual (G2) at Santa Anita on 1/31/26 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt); 3rd in the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar on 11/23/25 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt). Prefers fast tracks and has tactical speed from the rail. Dollase wins 15% with dirt routers at Santa Anita. Ayuso is aggressive and knows the course. Inside post suits pressing; value for exotics if pace holds.
2. Getaway Car (3/1 ML) Bob Baffert conditions this 4-year-old Ghostzapper colt, with Juan J. Hernandez aboard at 120 lbs. Owned by Pegram, Watson, and Weitman. Emerging talent with stakes upside. Recent finishes: 1st in the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita on 12/26/25 (7f dirt, fast, fig 112); 2nd in a Santa Anita allowance on 11/15/25 (1 mile, fast dirt); 1st MSW at Del Mar on 9/28/25 (1 mile, fast). Stretching out but pedigree suggests stamina. Baffert dominates classics (28% win rate). Hernandez leads the meet (25% wins). Post 2 allows stalking; strong chance if he handles the distance.
3. Just a Touch (3/2 ML) Brad H. Cox trains this 4-year-old Justify colt, ridden by Florent Geroux at 121 lbs. Owned by Qatar Racing and Mrs. John Magnier. Morning-line favorite with graded dominance. Recent finishes: 1st in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream on 1/24/26 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt, fig 118); 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar on 11/2/25 (1 1/4 miles, fast); 1st in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth on 7/19/25 (1 1/8 miles, fast). Proven at 1 1/4 miles on fast tracks. Cox powerhouse (25% wins). Geroux elite in routes. Post 3 ideal for mid-pack; class of the field.
4. Vodka Vodka (6/1 ML) Aggie Ordonez sends out this 6-year-old Vronsky gelding, with Kent J. Desormeaux up at 116 lbs. Owned by Ordonez Stable. Veteran closer with back class. Recent finishes: 3rd in the San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita on 12/26/25 (1 1/16 miles, fast dirt); 1st in a Santa Anita optional claimer on 11/30/25 (1 1/8 miles, fast); 2nd in the Cougar II (G3) at Del Mar on 8/10/25 (1 1/2 miles, fast). Handles fast dirt well. Ordonez targets value spots (16% wins). Desormeaux Hall of Famer. Post 4 suits rally; live if pace melts.
5. British Isles (6/1 ML) Richard Baltas trains this 5-year-old Territories gelding, ridden by Diego A. Herrera at 119 lbs. Owned by Little Red Feather Racing. Import with improving form. Recent finishes: 1st in a Santa Anita allowance on 1/17/26 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt, fig 108); 4th in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) at Santa Anita on 5/26/25 (1 1/4 miles, fast); 2nd overseas in a Group 3 at Newmarket on 10/12/25 (1 1/4 miles, good to firm). Firm dirt preferred. Baltas wins 18% with shippers. Herrera reliable locally. Post 5 offers options; exotic contender with recent bullet work.
6. Westwood (7/2 ML) Peter Eurton conditions this 5-year-old Medaglia d’Oro gelding, with Kazushi Kimura aboard at 121 lbs. Owned by C R K Stable. Stakes veteran transferred to new barn. Recent finishes: 2nd in the San Pasqual (G2) at Santa Anita on 1/31/26 (1 1/8 miles, fast dirt); 1st in a Fair Grounds allowance on 12/28/25 (1 1/8 miles, fast); 3rd in the Clark (G1) at Churchill on 11/29/25 (1 1/8 miles, fast). Strong on fast tracks. Eurton excels with new acquisitions (20% wins). Kimura rising star. Wide post 6 may require energy; major threat on form.
