DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne
NASCAR Cup Series – Race 3 of 36
Circuit of the Americas (COTA), Austin, Texas
Venue and Location
The race returns to Circuit of the Americas, a world-class, FIA Grade 1 permanent road course located at 9201 Circuit of the Americas Blvd in Austin, Texas (just east of downtown in the Texas Hill Country). Built on over 1,500 acres and opened in 2012, COTA is best known as the home of the Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, but it has become a staple on the NASCAR schedule since the series’ debut there in 2021. The facility features massive elevation changes, an amphitheater-style layout that keeps fans close to the action, and a 251-foot observation tower offering panoramic views.
Track Specifications
- Length: 2.40 miles (3.862 km) – the “National Course” layout.
- Type: Multi-elevational, counterclockwise permanent road course.
- Turns: 20 technically demanding corners.
- Key Features: Dramatic 133-foot elevation climb to Turn 1, a fast and flowing esses section (Turns 2-5), tight hairpins and braking zones, and multiple natural overtaking points (especially into Turn 1 and after the esses). The 2025–2026 National Course shortens the full 3.41-mile Grand Prix layout by cutting out roughly one mile of the distant backstretch (bypassing Turns 7-11 via a new Turn 6a/6b chicane), bringing far more on-track action into view for spectators and reducing lap times by nearly a minute. There is no ultra-long back straight in this configuration; instead, the track loops back sooner after the esses, placing a premium on handling, brake/tire management, downforce, and strategic passing rather than raw top-end speed. NASCAR added extra tire packs and stricter track-limits enforcement at Turn 6 and Turn 19 for 2026 to eliminate gray-area shortcuts.
Race Distance: 95 laps / 228 miles.
Stages: Stage 1 – 20 laps; Stage 2 – 25 laps (ends on Lap 45); Final Stage – 50 laps.
Race Purse: Approximately $11.23 million.
Flag drop is scheduled for
- Practice & Qualifying: Saturday, Feb. 28 (times vary; check local listings).
- Race: Sunday, March 1, 2026 – green flag at 3:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. CT local).
- TV: FOX (with in-car cameras on MAX).
- Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN) and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90.
Weather Conditions
Forecasts for race day in Austin call for excellent, dry racing conditions. Expect sunny skies, highs of 81–84°F during the green-flag window (low 80s at the 3:30 p.m. ET start), light south winds of 10–13 mph, and only a 1–5% chance of precipitation (some models show a slight 20% chance earlier in the day that clears well before green). Humidity will be moderate. These are near-ideal conditions—dry track, good grip, no weather strategy complications expected. Teams should have full dry setups with no rain tires needed.
Race History at COTA (Cup Series)
This is the sixth NASCAR Cup Series visit to Austin (fifth on the current National Course configuration used since 2025). The event has produced five different winners in five races, underscoring its competitiveness:
- 2021: Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) – rain-shortened to 54 laps.
- 2022: Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing) – aggressive last-lap bump-and-run.
- 2023: Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing Toyota) – triple overtime thriller.
- 2024: William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) – from the pole.
- 2025: Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) – first race on the shortened layout; 0.433-second margin over Byron.
Notable stats (across all five prior races, with emphasis on the new layout where applicable):
- Most laps led: William Byron (71).
- Best average finish (min. 2 starts): Tyler Reddick (4.6), Alex Bowman (5.2), Ross Chastain (5.6).
- Reddick has 4 top-5s and 5 top-10s in 5 starts; Byron and Chastain also multiple podium threats historically.
- Lead changes and cautions are common (up to 20 lead changes and 9 cautions in a single race). Overtime has decided two of the last four events.
Recent Driver Forms (2026 Season So Far)
After two superspeedway/oval races (Daytona and Atlanta):
- Tyler Reddick leads the standings with 125 points and back-to-back wins. He is the only driver with multiple victories and has been nearly untouchable early.
- Bubba Wallace sits 2nd (85 pts), Chase Elliott 3rd (81), Carson Hocevar 4th (74), Zane Smith 5th (71).
- Several big names (Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson) have struggled with inconsistent or crash-marred results so far.
Road-course form carries extra weight this weekend. Shane van Gisbergen enters on a five-race Cup road/street winning streak and has looked dominant wherever left-right turns appear. His Trackhouse teammate, rookie Connor Zilisch, has shown flashes of elite road talent (including strong lower-series results at COTA and other technical circuits).
Key Driver Matchups and Contenders
- Shane van Gisbergen – Clear favorite. Road-course ringer with unmatched recent form on similar layouts. Seeks sixth straight road win (tying a modern-era record).
- Connor Zilisch – Trackhouse rookie and SVG’s biggest threat. Won at COTA in lower series last year; proven on technical roads.
- Christopher Bell (defending winner but slow 2026 start).
- William Byron (2024 winner, strong qualifier).
- Tyler Reddick – Hot streak + excellent COTA history make him dangerous despite longer odds on a road course.
- Others with value: Chase Elliott (first COTA winner), Ross Chastain (2022 winner), Chris Buescher (four top-15s in five COTA starts, elite recent road consistency), AJ Allmendinger/Michael McDowell (road veterans), Kyle Larson.
Storylines to Watch:
- Can Reddick become the first driver since 2019 to win the first three races of a Cup season?
- Will the Trackhouse duo (SVG/Zilisch) dominate like they have on recent road/street courses?
- Track-limits enforcement at the revised Turn 6 could create controversy or penalties.
- Strategy on the shorter layout: fewer long straights mean tire wear and pit-road execution will be critical in the long final stage.
Betting Trends: Road-course specialists dominate the market for good reason—SVG and Zilisch are heavily backed. Value exists on “oval guys” like Reddick or Byron who have proven COTA speed, and on consistent road performers like Buescher for top-5/top-10 props. Expect heavy wagering on the first road race of the year, with live in-race betting popular around stage breaks and cautions. Historical data shows qualifiers starting top-10 have a strong edge, but chaos (multi-car incidents in the esses or Turn 1) can flip the script quickly.
This weekend marks the first true “technical” test of the 2026 season after two drafting-track slugfests. With perfect weather, a packed house in Austin, and a stacked field of road aces versus momentum-carrying oval winners, the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix promises high-speed drama, strategic chess, and likely another new face (or familiar road hero) in Victory Lane.
DRIVER ODDS
Shane Van Gisbergen + 120
Connor Zilisch + 350
Christopher Bell + 900
William Byron + 1000
Tyler Reddick + 1500
Kyle Larson + 1600
Chase Elliott + 2000
Chase Briscoe + 2000
Chris Buescher + 2500
Ross Chastain + 2800
Kyle Busch + 2800
AJ Allmendinger + 3000
Ty Gibbs + 3500
Michael McDowell + 3500
Alex Bowman + 3500
Ryan Blaney + 4500
Joey Logano + 6000
Denny Hamlin + 6000
Daniel Suarez + 6500
Carson Hocevar + 7500
Austin Cindric + 8000
Ryan Preece + 9000
Bubba Wallace + 10000
Noah Gragson + 20000
Brad Keselowski + 20000
Todd Gilliland + 30000
John Hunter Nemechek + 30000
Cole Custer + 30000
Austin Dillon + 30000
Zane Smith + 30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. + 35000
Jesse Love + 40000
Erik Jones + 40000
Josh Berry + 45000
Ty Dillon + 50000
Riley Herbst + 50000
Cody Ware + 50000
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, February 28, 2025
