Event Snapshot
Date/Time: Sunday, Aug. 31, 2025 — 6:00 PM ET
Location: Darlington Raceway, Darlington, SC
Distance: 367 laps / 501.3 miles
Track Specs: 1.366‑mile egg‑shaped oval, 25° banking (Turns 1–2), 23° (Turns 3–4)
Broadcast: USA Network (TV), MRN/SiriusXM (Radio), HBO Max (driver‑cam)
Playoff Context
Round of 16 Opener: First of 10 playoff races; 3 drivers eliminated after Race 3 (Bristol).
Top Seeds:
Kyle Larson
William Byron
Denny Hamlin
Defending Race Winner: Chase Briscoe (2024)
Historic Prestige: NASCAR’s oldest crown jewel race, first run in 1950.
Drivers to Watch
Kyle Larson: Elite Darlington record, excels in managing tire wear.
Denny Hamlin: Master of the “Lady in Black,” playoff veteran.
William Byron: Pole‑to‑podium threat; Hendrick momentum.
Brad Keselowski: Non‑playoff spoiler potential; won here in 2024 spring.
Chris Buescher: Underrated at Darlington; nearly won in 2024 spring.
Key Storylines
Tire Management: Darlington’s abrasive surface demands discipline — long‑run speed often trumps short‑run pace.
Pit Strategy: 500‑mile distance means 10–12 pit stops; clean execution is critical.
Playoff Pressure: Early win locks a driver into Round of 12; mistakes here can snowball.
Night‑to‑Day Transition: Race starts in daylight, ends under lights — track temp swings will change handling balance.
Win Probability (Top 5):
Denny Hamlin — 17%
Kyle Larson — 16%
William Byron — 14%
Ryan Blaney — 10%
Tyler Reddick — 8%
Projected Winner: Slight lean to Hamlin — recent form + Darlington mastery.
Betting Angles
Outright: Hamlin (+600) or Byron (+650) for value vs. Larson’s shorter price.
Top‑5 Finish: Chris Buescher (+400) — strong track history, low public exposure.
Matchup Play: Byron over Blaney — Byron’s Darlington speed edge.
DRIVER ODDS
William Byron + 400
Kyle Larson + 600
Denny Hamlin + 650
Ryan Blaney + 650
Christopher Bell + 800
Tyler Reddick + 850
Chase Briscoe + 1200
Chase Elliott + 1400
Joey Logano + 1600
Bubba Wallace + 2000
Ross Chastain + 2000
Chris Buescher + 2500
Kyle Busch + 2800
Brad Keselowski + 2800
Josh Berry + 4000
Alex Bowman + 4500
Ryan Preece + 5000
Carson Hocevar + 5500
Austin Cindric + 5500
Ty Gibbs + 5500
Erik Jones + 6000
Austin Dillon + 10000
Shane Van Gisbergen + 10000
Daniel Suarez + 13000
Zane Smith + 17000
Noah Gragson + 17000
John Hunter Nemechek + 20000
AJ Allmendinger + 20000
Todd Gilliland + 20000
Michael McDowell + 20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. + 25000
Justin Haley + 30000
Cole Custer + 40000
Riley Herbst + 40000
Ty Dillon + 50000
Josh Bilicki + 60000
Derek Kraus + 60000
Cody Ware + 60000
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, August 30, 2025
