NASCAR Cup Series Preview: Challenge Round 3 – Toyota / Save Mart 350

0
58

Location: Sonoma Raceway, Sonoma, California
Start Time: Sunday, July 13, 2025 – 3:30 PM ET
Broadcast: TNT Sports, truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Track Specs: 1.99-mile, 12-turn road course
Race Distance: 110 laps / 218.9 miles

Race Overview

The Toyota / Save Mart 350 marks Round 3 of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge, and it’s the only road course in the six-race tournament. With eight drivers still alive in the bracket and playoff points on the line, Sonoma’s technical layout will test braking zones, tire strategy, and driver finesse.

This year’s field features 37 cars, including road course specialists, former Sonoma winners, and rising stars. The race is expected to be a sprint-style shootout thanks to the repaved surface, which has reduced tire wear and increased grip.

Top Storylines

SVG’s Road Course Reign: Shane van Gisbergen enters as the +140 favorite after wins in Mexico City and Chicago. He swept both Cup and Xfinity races last weekend and won the Xfinity race at Sonoma in 2024.

Larson’s Home Turf: Defending winner Kyle Larson has two Sonoma victories (2021, 2024) and five career poles here. He’s listed at +600 and will look to rebound after recent finishes outside the top 10.

In-Season Challenge Bracket Battles: Eight drivers remain, including Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, John Hunter Nemechek, and Ty Dillon, who’s riding a Cinderella run as the No. 32 seed.

Drivers to Watch

DriverOddsSonoma Resume & Notes
Shane van Gisbergen+1403 Cup wins (all road courses); SVG swept Chicago weekend
Kyle Larson+6002-time Sonoma winner; 5 poles; defending champ
Michael McDowell+1000Runner-up in 2024; led Stage 1 in Chicago before mechanical failure
Ty Gibbs+14002nd in Chicago; 3rd in Mexico City; 5 career top-5s on road/street courses
Christopher Bell+1800Winner at COTA; 2nd in Mexico City; top-10s last 2 years at Sonoma
Chase Elliott+12006 top-8 finishes in last 7 Sonoma starts; 4th at COTA
Ross Chastain+22004 straight top-10s at Sonoma; 5th in 2024
Alex Bowman+2800Top-5 in 2 of last 4 races; faces Ty Dillon in bracket

Track Trends & Strategy

Pit Strategy Crucial: With the repaved surface, tire wear is less of a factor, making track position and pit timing more important than ever.

Starting Position: Only 3 of the last 12 winners started in the top two rows. Larson (2021) is the only pole winner to win since 2004.

Manufacturer Edge: Chevrolet has won 3 of the last 4 editions. Toyota has struggled with the Next Gen car on road courses.

Best Value: Christopher Bell (+1800) – elite road form and consistent top-3 finishes

Prop Pick: Ty Gibbs Top 5 (+200) – strong recent form and bracket momentum

Matchup Play: Ryan Preece (+175) over Tyler Reddick – better recent Sonoma finishes

DRIVER                                                 ODDS

Shane Van Gisbergen                    + 130

Kyle Larson                                         + 550

Ty Gibbs                                              + 1100

Michael McDowell                          + 1100

William Byron                                   + 1200

Chris Buescher                                  + 1400

Chase Elliott                                       + 1400

Tyler Reddick                                     + 1400

Christopher Bell                               + 1400

AJ Allmendinger                              + 1800

Ross Chastain                                    + 2200

Kyle Busch                                          + 2200

Ryan Blaney                                       + 2500

Chase Briscoe                                    + 2800

Alex Bowman                                    + 2800

Joey Logano                                       + 4500

Daniel Suarez                                     + 4500

Carson Hocevar                                 + 5500

Denny Hamlin                                   + 6500

Austin Cindric                                    + 8000

Ryan Preece                                       + 8000

Brad Keselowski                              + 10000

Bubba Wallace                                  + 13000

John Hunter Nemechek                + 13000

Todd Gilliland                                   + 17000

Zane Smith                                         + 20000

Noah Gragson                                   + 20000

Justin Haley                                        + 20000

Erik Jones                                            + 25000

Cole Custer                                         + 25000

Austin Dillon                                      + 30000

Ty Dillon                                              + 40000

Riley Herbst                                       + 40000

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.                         + 40000

Josh Berry                                           + 40000

Katherine Legge                               + 50000

Cody Ware                                          + 50000

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 12, 2025