Venue & Race Details
- Track: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Arizona
- Layout: 1-mile low-banked tri-oval
- Race Distance: 312 laps (312 miles)
- Stages: Stage 1 ends at Lap 75, Stage 2 at Lap 190, Final Stage to Lap 312
- Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, in-car feeds on MAX
Weather & Track Conditions
- Forecast: Sunny, race-time temps around 84°F (29°C), low humidity, light winds (5–8 mph)
- Track Impact: Warm desert air will create slick conditions, increasing tire wear. Phoenix’s flat corners reward drivers who manage long green-flag runs and restarts.
Driver Matchups – Championship 4
- Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing, #11 Toyota):
- Seeking his first Cup title after 44 career wins.
- Won at Gateway, Dover, and Martinsville in 2025 — all flat tracks similar to Phoenix.
- 13 Top-10s in last 19 Phoenix starts, but only 2 career wins here.
- Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports, #5 Chevy):
- 2021 Cup Champion, looking for a second title.
- 7 Top-5s in last 11 Phoenix starts.
- Elite on short tracks this season, though only 1 Phoenix win in 22 starts.
- William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports, #24 Chevy):
- Won the 2025 Daytona 500 and the Martinsville playoff race to clinch his spot.
- Attempting to become the first driver since Jimmie Johnson (2013) to win both Daytona 500 and Cup title in the same year.
- Strong late-season form, with 6 wins overall.
- Chase Briscoe (Joe Gibbs Racing, #19 Toyota):
- Breakout season with 3 wins and a series-high 7 poles.
- First Championship 4 appearance.
- JGR’s flat-track setups give him a technical edge at Phoenix.
Race History
- 2024: Ross Chastain won the race; Justin Allgaier crowned Xfinity champ the day before.
- 2023: Ryan Blaney won the race and the championship.
- Trend: The championship winner has finished no worse than 2nd at Phoenix in the finale since the format began.
Recent Driver Form
- Hamlin: Won Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas; strong momentum.
- Larson: Consistent Top-10s, but searching for Phoenix dominance.
- Byron: Peaking at the right time, Martinsville win shows clutch ability.
- Briscoe: Late-season surge, thriving under pressure.
Betting Trends
- The driver who wins the Round of 8 opener has gone on to win the championship in 3 of the last 4 years — Hamlin fits this trend.
- Hendrick Motorsports (Larson/Byron) vs. Joe Gibbs Racing (Hamlin/Briscoe) — no Penske driver in the Championship 4 for the first time since 2019.
- Phoenix finales often feature late cautions and overtime finishes, making restarts critical.
Bottom Line: The 2025 Cup finale is a heavyweight duel between Hendrick and JGR. Hamlin carries the narrative and statistical edge, Byron has the hot hand, Larson brings experience, and Briscoe is the wild card. Expect a tense, restart-heavy finish under the desert sun.
