Event: UFC 311 | Prelims Location: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, California Date: January 18, 2025

Fighter Overview
– Diego Ferreira
- Record: 19-5
- Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)
- Height: 5′ 9″
- Reach: 74″
- Stance: Orthodox
Diego Ferreira, a seasoned Brazilian fighter, boasts a 19-5 record showcasing notable victories and thrilling comebacks. Currently ranked No. 15 in the lightweight division, Ferreira is known for his resilient fighting style and striking capabilities. His latest win against Mateusz Rebecki displayed his returning power and perseverance. Despite facing a three-fight losing streak in his past, Ferreira bounced back with impressive knockout wins.
– Grant Dawson
- Record: 22-2-1
- Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)
- Height: 5′ 10″
- Reach: 72″
- Stance: Switch
Grant Dawson, a rising star, holds a record of 22-2-1. Known for his grappling prowess, Dawson has racked up an impressive record in the UFC since 2019. Ranked No. 14, Dawson is coming off back-to-back victories, displaying his elite submission skills and cardio. His recent win over Rafa Garcia showcased his well-rounded skill set and ability to finish fights.
Fight Breakdown and Analysis
Striking:
- Ferreira delivers approximately 5.04 significant strikes per minute with a 39% accuracy rate. His orthodox stance and power make him a formidable striker.
- Dawson has a strike output of around 3.15 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy. His switch stance adds diversity to his striking attack.
Wrestling & Grappling:
- Dawson‘s grappling credentials are top-tier, with a takedown accuracy of 38% and an average of 3.65 takedowns per 15 minutes. He excels in controlling opponents on the ground and securing submissions.
- Ferreira shows remarkable grappling skills too, with a 60% takedown defense. His striking power and improved cardio will play crucial roles in countering Dawson’s wrestling.
Game Plan:
- Dawson will likely aim to close the distance, leveraging his grappling to take the fight to the ground where he can control Ferreira. His submission game remains a potent weapon.
- Ferreira will strive to keep the fight standing, utilizing his striking to damage Dawson and prevent takedowns. If Ferreira can maintain his striking output and defend the ground game, he has a chance to outmaneuver Dawson.
Diego Ferreira + 200
Grant Dawson – 275
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, January 17, 2025