Event & Venue Details
Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA
Main Card Start: 6:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM CT
Expected Walkout Time: ~7:45 PM ET (Main Card bout 12 of 14)
Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)
Injury & Availability Report
Rafa Garcia: No current injuries. Last fought in March 2025, earning a unanimous decision win over Vinc Pichel.
Jared Gordon: No reported injuries. Coming off a first-round TKO win over Thiago Moises in May 2025.
Recent Form & Fight History
Rafa Garcia
Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Most Recent: UD win over Vinc Pichel (Mar 2025)
Notable Wins: Maheshate (UD), Jesse Ronson (SUB), Natan Levy (UD)
Losses: Grant Dawson (TKO), Drakkar Klose (UD)
Style: Persistent wrestler with strong top control; averages over 3 takedowns per fight. Striking is functional, used to set up level changes. Durable and cardio-reliable.
Jared Gordon
Last 5: W-L-NC-L-W
Most Recent: TKO win over Thiago Moises (May 2025)
Notable Wins: Leonardo Santos (UD), Joe Solecki (SD), Chris Fishgold (UD)
Losses: Nasrat Haqparast (SD), Grant Dawson (SUB)
Style: High-volume boxer with crisp combinations, relentless forward pressure, and solid clinch work. Mixes in opportunistic takedowns but prefers to keep it standing.
Matchup Analysis
Striking:
Gordon: Higher output, better accuracy, and more consistent volume (5.67 SLpM at 55% accuracy).
Garcia: Lower output but improving boxing; uses strikes to close distance.
Grappling:
Garcia: Stronger offensive wrestling (3.21 TD avg, 43% accuracy) and better TDD (77%).
Gordon: Solid scrambling, but 62% TDD can be tested.
Cardio:
Both have proven three-round gas tanks; Gordon’s pace is relentless, Garcia’s is grind-heavy.
Intangibles:
Garcia: Younger, slightly longer reach, and more dangerous in grappling exchanges.
Gordon: Vast experience against top-tier opponents, veteran composure, and recent KO momentum.
Betting Trends
Line Movement: Gordon opened around -240; steady action has pushed him toward -260/-265.
Public Action: Majority of public bets on Gordon ML; some sharp interest on Garcia as a live dog due to wrestling edge.
Prop Interest:
Gordon by Decision (-110 to +100) — aligns with his volume-based style.
Garcia by Decision (+350) — value if he can control with wrestling.
Historical Trends:
Garcia: 8 of 9 UFC fights have gone to decision.
Gordon: 7 of last 9 wins by decision.
FIGHT ODDS
Rafa Garcia + 145
Jared Gordon – 170
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, September 12, 2025
