MLS Match Preview: Toronto FC (5-13-9) vs. CF Montreal Impact (5-15-8)

Weather Outlook

Forecast at Kickoff: ~77°F (25°C), clear skies, humidity ~60%, light SW winds 5–7 mph

Impact: Ideal playing conditions; fast pitch should favor quick passing and counter-attacks

Injury & Availability Report

Toronto FC

Out: Richie Laryea (leg), Nickseon Gomis (leg), Jonathan Osorio (leg), Markus Cimermancic (leg), Deandre Kerr (leg)

Notes: Sean Johnson back in goal with 7 clean sheets this season; Theo Corbeanu and Federico Bernardeschi expected to start wide

CF Montréal

Out: Jalen Neal (appendicitis), Giacomo Vrioni (lower body), Fabian Herbers (lower body), Samuel Piette (lower body), Kwadwo Opoku (lower body)

Notes: Dante Sealy in form with 3 goals in last 4 MLS matches; Prince Osei Owusu leads team with 12 goals

Projected Starting XIs

Toronto FC (4-3-3)
Johnson (GK); Franklin, Thompson, Rosted, Laryea; Coello, Dominguez, Osorio; Corbeanu, Mihailovic, Brynhildsen

CF Montréal (4-2-3-1)
Gillier (GK); Bugaj, Morales, Craig, Petrasso; Loturi, Longstaff; Synchuk, Duke, Sealy; Owusu

Key Player Matchups

Djordje Mihailovic (TFC) vs. Victor Loturi (CFM) – Mihailovic’s creativity (9G, 7A) against Loturi’s defensive work rate in midfield.

Theo Corbeanu (TFC) vs. Luca Petrasso (CFM) – Corbeanu’s direct dribbling vs. Petrasso’s defensive positioning on the flank.

Prince Osei Owusu (CFM) vs. Shane O’Neill/NYRB CB pairing – Owusu’s aerial threat and hold-up play against Toronto’s center-backs.

Dante Sealy (CFM) vs. Kosi Thompson (TFC) – Sealy’s pace and recent scoring form could trouble Toronto’s right side.

Recent Team Form

Toronto FC – Last 5 MLS: D D D L L

Winless in last 5; only 2 goals scored in that span

Unbeaten in last 4 home matches (W1 D3) after losing 10 of previous 13 at BMO Field

CF Montréal – Last 5 MLS: W D D W L

4-match domestic unbeaten run before loss to Chicago; 8 goals scored in last 5 matches

First road win of 2025 came in July; 3 away wins would surpass last year’s total

Series History

All-Time (MLS & Cups): Toronto leads 30W – 22W Montréal – 12D

Recent MLS Meetings: Toronto has won 3 straight regular-season matches vs. Montréal by a combined 12–2, including a 6–1 win in May 2025 and a 5–1 win in May 2024

At BMO Field: Toronto unbeaten in last 4 MLS home meetings (W3 D1)

Betting Trends

Toronto FC:

Under 2.5 goals in last 7 MLS matches

4 of last 5 home matches ended in Draw or 1-goal margin

Scored first in 4 of last 5 vs. Montréal

CF Montréal:

BTTS in 7 straight MLS matches

No clean sheet in last 12 league games

First to score in 4 of last 5 matches

H2H Totals:

Over 2.5 goals in 4 of last 5 meetings

Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

Team xG: TOR 25.2, MTL 30.5

Goals Conceded per 90: TOR 1.31, MTL 1.78

Home/away splits & form streaks

Key absences in attack for both sides