MLS Match Preview: New England Revolution (8-12-7) vs. Charlotte FC (15-11-2)

Weather Outlook

Forecast at Kickoff: ~77°F (25°C), clear skies, humidity ~60%, light SW winds 5–7 mph

Impact: Ideal playing conditions; minimal wind effect; fast turf surface favors quick passing and counter-attacks

Injury & Availability Report

New England Revolution

Out: Eric Klein (injury)

Notes: Caleb Porter’s side otherwise near full strength; Carles Gil in form with 9 goals & 6 assists

Charlotte FC

Out: Tyger Smalls (injury), Pep Biel (knee), Bill Tuiloma (injury)

Questionable: Harry Toffolo (knock vs. NYRB)

Notes: Biel’s absence removes a 9-goal, 10-assist threat; Idan Toklomati (7 goals) in strong form

Projected Starting XIs

New England (4-2-3-1)
Turner (GK); Miller, Fofana, Ceballos, Feingold; Polster, Yusuf; Ganago, Gil, Langoni; Campana

Charlotte (4-3-3)
Kahlina (GK); Byrne, Malanda, Ream, Marshall-Rutty; Westwood, Diani, Bronico; Zaha, Toklomati, Vargas

Key Player Matchups

Carles Gil (NE) vs. Ashley Westwood (CLT) – Gil’s creativity (10 assists in 2025) against Charlotte’s midfield anchor; controlling Gil is key to slowing NE’s attack.

Leonardo Campana (NE) vs. Adilson Malanda (CLT) – Campana has 4 goals in last 6; Malanda’s aerial ability will be tested.

Wilfried Zaha (CLT) vs. Mamadou Fofana (NE) – Zaha’s pace and dribbling could exploit NE’s high line.

Idan Toklomati (CLT) vs. Brayan Ceballos (NE) – Toklomati has been decisive in 4 straight matches; Ceballos must track his late runs.

Recent Team Form

New England Revolution – Last 6 MLS: 2W-6L-2D

Goals For: 1.4 per game

Goals Against: 2.0 per game

Home Struggles: 1 win in last 9 at Gillette Stadium

Charlotte FC – Last 6 MLS: 7W-2L-1D

Goals For: 1.7 per game

Goals Against: 1.0 per game

Current Streak: 7 straight wins, 4 consecutive clean sheets, 420 minutes without conceding

Series History

All-Time MLS Meetings: NE leads 5W – 2W CLT – 0D

2025 Season: NE won 1-0 away (Apr. 26) via Carles Gil goal

At Gillette Stadium: NE 3–0–0 vs. CLT, all wins by a single goal

Betting Trends

New England:

2-3-2 as moneyline favorite in 2025

4 of last 6 matches saw BTTS & Over 2.5 goals

5 of 7 H2H wins by exactly 1 goal

Charlotte:

7-game MLS win streak (tied 2nd-longest in league since 2018)

4 straight clean sheets

0-3-0 all-time at Gillette Stadium

H2H Totals:

Under 2.5 in 4 of last 5 meetings

Home team has won 6 of 7 all-time

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

Team xG: NE 33.2 (21st MLS), CLT 41.9 (10th MLS)

Goals Conceded: NE 37 (1.42 GA/90), CLT 39 (1.44 GA/90)

Form differential: CLT +15 points in last 10 matches

Venue effect: NE perfect at home vs. CLT historically