MLS Match Preview: FC Cincinnati (16-8-4) vs. Philadelphia Union (16-6-6)

Weather Outlook

Forecast at Kickoff: ~77°F (25°C), clear skies, humidity ~60%, light SW winds 5–7 mph

Impact: Ideal playing conditions; minimal wind effect on ball flight; fast pitch expected

Injury & Availability Report

FC Cincinnati

Out:

Miles Robinson (calf)

Obinna Nwobodo (quad)

Brad Smith (hamstring)

Probable: Luca Orellano (hamstring)

Notes: Defensive depth stretched; Brenner recently returned from Udinese, but match fitness still building; new signings Dominic Marczuk and Ayoub Jabbari available for selection

Philadelphia Union

Out: Andre Blake (goalkeeper, injury)

Available: Indiana Vassilev returns from concussion protocol; Milan Iloski in strong form since arrival

Notes: Andrew Rick expected to start in goal; otherwise near full-strength squad

Projected Starting XIs

FC Cincinnati (3-4-1-2)
Celentano (GK); Miazga, Hagglund, Murphy; Yedlin, Bucha, Anunga, Powell; Evander; Denkey, Brenner

Philadelphia Union (4-4-2)
Rick (GK); Harriel, Glesnes, Makhanya, Wagner; Bueno, Lukic, Sullivan, Iloski; Baribo, Uhre

Key Player Matchups

Evander (CIN) vs. Damir Lukic (PHI) – Evander leads Cincy with 16 goals & 8 assists; Lukic’s defensive positioning will be critical to limiting his influence between the lines.

Brenner (CIN) vs. Jakob Glesnes (PHI) – Brenner’s return adds a proven finisher; Glesnes must manage his movement in the box.

Tai Baribo (PHI) vs. Matt Miazga (CIN) – Baribo has 16 goals this season, including a hat trick in the last meeting; Miazga’s aerial dominance will be tested.

Kai Wagner (PHI) vs. DeAndre Yedlin (CIN) – Wagner’s delivery from the left is elite; Yedlin’s pace could exploit space behind him on counters.

Recent Team Form

FC Cincinnati – Last 6 (MLS): W D L L W L

Struggling at home: 3 straight MLS home defeats, scoring only 1 goal in that span

Resilient after losses: 5W-2D in matches following a defeat this season

Philadelphia Union – Last 6 (MLS): D W D W L W

Only 1 loss in last 6 league matches

Best defense in MLS (26 GA; 0.96 GA/90)

+22 goal differential, most balanced team in East

Series History

All-Time (MLS & Cups): Philadelphia leads 8W – 6W Cincinnati – 3D

Recent at TQL Stadium: Cincinnati has won 3 straight regular-season home matches vs. Union

2025 Meetings: PHI 4–1 CIN (Mar. 1 at Subaru Park)

Betting Trends

Cincinnati:

7-4-2 at home in MLS play (worst home record among current East playoff teams)

5-2-0 after a loss this season

Philadelphia:

6-2-5 away; 3 losses in last 6 road matches

League-high 18 different goal scorers in 2025

Head-to-Head Totals: Over 2.5 goals in 4 of last 6 meetings

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

Team xG: CIN 33.4 (20th MLS), PHI 45.6 (6th MLS)

Goals Conceded: CIN 34 (1.26 GA/90), PHI 26 (0.96 GA/90)

Key absences: CIN defensive injuries; PHI without Blake in goal

Home/away splits & recent form