Tuesday, December 24, 2024
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MLB Preview: Seattle Mariners (50-49) at Minnesota Twins (53-48)

SEATTLE MARINERS NOTES:

No team release available.

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: After completing their seven-game, West Coast road-trip with a record of 5-2 (3-0 at Oakland and 2-2 at Seattle), the Twins began their six-game homestand with a three-game sweep of the White Sox over the weekend…Minnesota will continue the homestand tonight with the first of three against the Mariners, through Wednesday…the Twins have gone 29-22 at home and 24-26 on the road.

In 16 games since July 3, the Twins have scored 5.4 runs-per-game.

Of the Twins’ 61 remaining games, they have an opponent winning percentage of .477, the second-lowest strength of schedule, trailing only the White Sox (.466).

JEFF YEA, TWINS SWEEP SOX: The Twins beat the White Sox yesterday afternoon at Target Field by a score of 5-4 in 12 innings, their MLB-best ninth extra-inning win…yesterday marked their 24th comeback win of the season and made them 3-44 when trailing after the eighth inning…Bailey Ober was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing three runs (2 earned) on five hits in 6.0 innings pitched, with no walks and six strikeouts…Oliver Ortega (2.0 IP), Jorge López (1.0 IP), Jhoan Duran (1.0 IP), Griffin Jax (1.0 IP) and Emilio Pagán (1.0 IP) combined to allow just one unearned run 6.0 innings of relief…the Twins scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game and force extras…the offense recorded 13 hits and were led by Ryan Jeffers, who went 3-for-5 and drove in the game-winning run with a 12th-inning single, marking his first career walk-off hit.

BUCK DADDY: The Twins have placed designated hitter Byron Buxton on the Paternity List… Buxton has played in 81 games this season, hitting .195 (57-for-292) with 12 doubles, one triple, 17 home runs, 40 RBI, 46 runs scored, a .284 on-base percentage, a .418 slugging percentage and a .702 OPS…to replace Buxton on the 26-man roster, the Twins have recalled outfielder Trevor Larnach from Triple-A St. Paul…during his most recent stint with the Saints, Larnach has hit .202 (20-for-99) with three doubles, five home runs, 15 RBI, 19 runs scored, 16 walks and a .308 on-base percentage in 27 games since June 16…Larnach played in 47 games for the Twins earlier this season, hitting .211 (32-for-152) with five doubles, two triples, six home runs, 31 RBI, 21 runs scored, 23 walks and a .311 on-base percentage.

SUMMER SLAM: Since the All-Star break, the Twins have gone 8-2, leading baseball in wins in that span…they have scored at least five runs in eight of 10 games since the break… below are the offensive numbers and MLB ranks pre-All-Star break vs. post-All-Star break:

AVG R/G H HR BB OBP SLG OPS TB BA/RISP
PRE: .232 (25) 4.2 (24) 708 (22) 115 (8) 297 (16) .309 (25) .400 (20) .709 (22) 1219 (20) .242 (25)
POST: .271 (8) 5.9 (4) 95 (3) 18 (T-2) 45 (2) .360 (5) .499 (2) .859 (1) 175 (1) .278 (9)

TWINS AND M’s: The Twins and Mariners are playing each other for the fifth of seven meetings this season…these two last met for a four-game series at T-Mobile Park from July 17-20 as the Twins won the middle two of four…the Twins outscored the M’s 22-18 over the four games.

The Twins are 6-3 in their last nine vs. Seattle, dating back to April 10, 2022.

This series marks the first trip for Seattle to the Twin Cities since the Home Opening series of 2022, from April 8-11, as they split 2-2.

Carlos Correa has reached safely in 24 of his last 26 games against the Mariners, dating back to April of 2021…in that span, he is hitting .290 (31-for-107) with nine doubles, one triple, two home runs, 10 RBI, 20 runs scored, 11 walks, a .356 on-base percentage and an .805 OPS.

Donovan Solano is a career .347 (17-for-49) hitter with three doubles, one triple, four RBI, three walks, nine runs scored and an .845 OPS in 13 games vs. the Mariners.

Last series in Seattle: Edouard Julien went 9-for-15 (.600) with two home runs and three walks…Max Kepler went 6-for-14 (.429) with two home runs and six RBI…Willi Castro went 5-for-13 (.385)…Alex Kirilloff went 6-for-17 (.353) with two home runs and five RBI…Kyle Farmer went 3-for-10 (.300) with one home run and two walks.

FOLLOW THE LEADER: Carlos Correa has led off in 18 of the club’s last 19 games, since June 30…since that date, he has reached safely in 16 of 18 games, hitting .306 (22-for-72) with a .386 on-base percentage and an .816 OPS, while leading the team in hits and times on base (32).

Post-All-Star break over the last two seasons combined, he is hitting .302 (88-for-291) with an .864 OPS in 75 games.

EXCELLENT ‘PENMANSHIP: In 10 games since the All-Star break, the Twins bullpen has combined to go 6-0, 2.00 ERA (36.0 IP, 8 ER), with eight walks, 37 strikeouts, an opponent batting average of .194 (25-for-129) and an opponent OPS of .585.

Notable individuals since the break: Jordan Balazovic has pitched 3.0 scoreless innings with two hits allowed…Jovani Moran has pitched 4.0 no-hit innings…Emilio Pagán has pitched 7.0 shutout innings with one hit, two walks and six strikeouts…Jhoan Duran has posted a 1.50 ERA (6.0 IP, 1 ER) with five saves (5 chances), no walks and nine strikeouts…Griffin Jax has posted a 2.08 ERA (4.1 IP, 1 ER) with four strikeouts in five games.

RUN THE JULS: Edouard Julien has reached base safely in 24 of his last 40 plate appearances… in 14 games since July 3, he is hitting .465 (20-for-43) with three doubles, five home runs, seven RBI, 12 runs scored, seven walks and a 1.424 OPS…since being recalled on June 10, he’s hitting .356 (36-for-101) with nine doubles, five home runs, eight RBI, 15 walks, 19 runs scored, a .436 on-base percentage and a 1.030 OPS in 33 games; since that date, he ranks among the major league leaders (minimum of 100 plate appearances) in batting average (4th), on-base percentage (5th) and OPS (11th).

Julien leads all major league rookies this season (minimum of 150 plate appearances) in OPS (.928, 1st), batting average on balls in play (.432, 1st), slugging percentage (.540, 2nd) and on-base percentage (.388, 1st).

I’LL TAKE BATTING AVERAGE FOR 300, ALEX: Alex Kirilloff is hitting .333 (24-for-72) with five doubles, one triple, four home runs, 19 RBI, six walks, eight runs scored, a .395 on-base percentage, a .597 slugging percentage and a .992 OPS in his last 20 games, since June 26…he has four home runs and 14 RBI in his last eight games…additionally, he has 18 RBI this month, tied for third most in the AL.

STARTING PITCHER – KENTA MAEDA #18
2023: 2-5, 5.10 ERA CAREER: 61-46, 3.94 ERA

Making his 10th start and appearance of 2023 and his fourth home start…also his 179th career appearance and 145th start.

Facing the Mariners for the second-straight start; took a no-decision vs. Seattle on June 19 in the Twins’ 6-3 win at T-Mobile Park (6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R/ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K).

Is in his fourth season with the Twins after being acquired in 2020, along with Jair Camargo, from Los Angeles-NL in exchange for Brusdar Graterol and Luke Raley.

LAST TIME OUT: Did not factor into the decision on July 19 at Seattle, a 6-3 Twins’ win at T-Mobile Park…pitched 6.1 innings and allowed two runs on three hits (1 HR), with no walks and a seasonhigh-tying nine strikeouts…retired 15 of the first 16 batters he faced, facing the minimum through 5.1 innings…allowed a solo home run to catcher Tom Murphy in the bottom of the sixth…was relieved by Griffin Jax with one out in the sixth inning after allowing a single to leftfielder Jarred Kelenic; Jax yielded a game-tying two-run homer to third baseman Eugenio Suárez, but the Twins scored three runs in the final two innings to secure the victory.

Struck out a season-high nine batters for the third time this season, also doing so on April 4 at Miami and July 4 vs. Kansas City.

Recorded an out in the seventh inning for the second time in his last three starts (7.0 IP on July 4 vs. Kansas City) after pitching 6.0-or-fewer innings in his previous 10 starts from August 3, 2021 to June 28, 2023.

Reached 800.0 career innings after retiring rightfielder Teoscar Hernández to end the bot- tom of the second; became the seventh Japanese-born pitcher to log 800.0 innings in MLB.

TWO STARTS AGO: Took a no-decision on July 14 at Oakland in the Twins’ 5-4 win over the Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum, Minnesota’s first game after the All-Star break…pitched 3.0 innings and allowed three runs on four hits, with a season-high four walks and six strikeouts…walked two batters in a 28-pitch first inning but kept Oakland off the board…retired the first two hitters he faced in the second inning, then allowed a triple to catcher Shea Langeliers and an RBI single to shortstop Nick Allen; tossed 31 pitches in the inning, his most in any inning this year…allowed an RBI double to second baseman Zack Gelof and a sacrifice fly to third baseman Jace Peterson in the third inning… was relieved in the top of the fourth by Jovani Moran with the score tied 3-3; Twins bullpen pitched 6.0 innings and allowed only one run as Minnesota prevailed in the series opener.

Issued four-or-more walks for the first time since June 29, 2021 at Chicago-AL, when he tied his career high with five walks issued (also, 5 BB on June 19, 2018 at Chicago-NL with Los Angeles-NL).

Threw 80 pitches in only 3.0 innings pitched…marked his highest pitch count in an outing of 3.0-or-fewer innings in his career.

HEATING UP: Since being returned from his rehab assignment and reinstated from the 15-day Injured List (right triceps strain) on June 23, Maeda is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA (26.1 IP, 8 ER), nine walks, 36 strikeouts and a .198 (18-for-91) opponent batting average in five starts…his 36 strikeouts since June 23 are tied for the ninth most in the American League in that span and his 1.03 WHIP ranks 12th (min. 5 GS)…here are his numbers in his last five starts compared to his first four outings of 2023:

STATISTIC FIRST 4 STARTS LAST 5 STARTS
ERA ………………………………………………………….. 9.00 …………………………………………………………… 2.73
Opponent Batting Average…………………………… .329 …………………………………………………………… .198
WHIP…………………………………………………………. 1.63 …………………………………………………………… 1.03
Team Record……………………………………………….. 0-4 …………………………………………………………….. 4-1

SEA-ING DOUBLE: Facing Seattle for the second-straight start and the third time in his career tonight… is 0-0 with a 2.61 ERA (10.1 IP, 3 ER), three walks, 16 strikeouts and a .167 (6-for-36) opponent batting average in his two previous starts vs. the Mariners; Twins went 1-1 in those two starts…took a no-decision in his last start against Seattle on July 19, a 6-3 Twins’ win at T-Mobile Park (6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R/ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K)…also did not factor into the decision in his only other start against the Mariners on June 14, 2021 at T-Mobile Park, as the Twins fell 4-3; tossed 4.0 innings and allowed one run on three hits, with three walks and seven strikeouts.

Making his third-consecutive start against an American League West division opponent…is 3-1 with a 5.02 ERA (43.0 IP, 24 ER), 14 walks and 48 strikeouts in nine starts against the AL West since becoming a Twin…is 5-5, 5.06 ERA (80.0 IP, 45 ER) with 30 walks and 86 strikeouts in 18 career appearances (16 starts) against AL West teams.

FINDING HIS TARGET: Making his fourth home start of the season tonight…is 1-2, 8.44 ERA (16.0 IP, 15 ER) with three walks and 14 strikeouts…10 of the 15 earned runs he has allowed at Target Field in 2023 were on April 26 vs. New York-AL…earned the win in his last home start on July 4 vs. Kansas City, pitching 7.0 innings and allowing two runs (1 ER) on three hits (1 HR), with one walk and nine strikeouts in the Twins’ 9-3 victory over the Royals…is the only pitcher in baseball to start nine-or-more games in 2023 with three-or-fewer of those starts coming at home…is 1-3, 3.08 ERA (26.1 IP, 9 ER) with nine walks and 36 strikeouts in six road starts this season. AIs 6-4, 3.21 ERA (87.0 IP, 31 ER) with 19 walks and 93 strikeouts in 15 starts at Target Field as a Twin (since 2020).

Historically has better numbers at home than on the road, going 34-21, 3.23 ERA (390.1 IP, 140 ER) with 99 walks and 429 strikeouts in 82 career home appearances (64 starts)…is 27-25, 4.61 ERA (414.0 IP, 212 ER) with 133 walks and 455 strikeouts in 96 road appearances (80 starts).

NIGHT MOVES: Owns a 2.79 ERA (19.1 IP, 6 ER) with six walks and 32 strikeouts in four nighttime starts this year, holding his opponents to a .191 (13-for-68) batting average…historically has better numbers in night games, going 44-30, 3.55 ERA (562.1 IP, 222 ER) with 164 walks, 629 strikeouts and a .645 opponent OPS in 123 nighttime appearances (98 starts)…is 17-16, 4.83 ERA (242.0 IP, 130 ER) with 68 walks, 255 strikeouts and a .742 opponent OPS in 55 daytime appearances (46 starts).

THE ARSENAL: Maeda has used a five-pitch mix this year, throwing his slider and split finger the most; he utilizes the pair a combined 67.2 percent of the time…favors his split finger (139/222 – 62.6%) against lefties and mostly uses his slider (161/231 – 69.7%) and sinker (38/38 – 100%) against righties…recorded a season-high five strikeouts with his split finger in his last outing on July 19 at Seattle, one short of his career high of six, done three times previously (July 11, 2018 at San Diego, July 24, 2018 at Philadelphia and September 23, 2020 vs. Detroit)…here’s a breakdown of his repertoire:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
Slider (81.5)…………………….. 34.3% (231 pitches, 161/70)………….. .242 (15-for-62), 5 2B, 4 HR, 20 K Split Finger (83.8)…………….. 32.9% (222 pitches, 83/139)…………………… .200 (11-for-55), 1 2B, 18 K 4-Seam Fastball (90.3)………. 22.7% (153 pitches, 76/77)…… .400 (12-for-30), 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 12 K Sinker (89.6) ……………………….. 5.6% (38 pitches, 38/0) ………………………………………… .182 (2-for-11)
Curveball (75.6)…………………… 4.5% (30 pitches, 7/23) ………………………………………….. .333 (1-for-3)

Threw a 93.4 mph four-seam fastball to leftfielder Jarred Kelenic in the bottom of the fourth inning of his last start on July 19 at Seattle, the hardest pitch he has thrown this season… also threw two fastballs at 92.9 mph and another at 92.6 mph in his last outing, each faster than any pitch he had thrown previously this year.

Opponents own a .018 ISO against Maeda’s splitter this season, the lowest ISO against a splitter in baseball (min. 50 plate appearances).

LEFT/RIGHT: Maeda has similar numbers against right-handed and left-handed batters this year…righties are slashing .247/.286/.462 with 27 strikeouts and a .748 OPS and left-handed hitters are slashing .265/.325/.353 with 23 strikeouts and a .678 OPS…lefties went 2-for-10 with four strikeouts against him in his last start on July 19 at Seattle, while righties went 1-for-11 with one home run (Suárez) and five strikeouts off Maeda.

In his career, righties are batting just .206 (320-for-1552) with a .611 OPS and 526 strikeouts against Maeda…owns the third-lowest opponent batting average and fourth-lowest opponent OPS vs. righties since 2016 (min 750.0 IP), trailing only Max Scherzer (.182 BAA, .534 OPS), Jacob deGrom (.203 BAA, .568 OPS) and Clayton Kershaw (.609 OPS)…lefties are hitting .251 (367-for-1464) with a .741 OPS and 358 strikeouts off Maeda in his career.

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