Venue: T-Mobile Park — Seattle, Washington
First Pitch: 7:10 PM PT / 10:10 PM ET
Weather Forecast — Seattle, WA
Seattle summer nights are mild and comfortable, with marine air that slightly suppresses fly‑ball carry.
Temperature at first pitch: 68–72°F
Humidity: 60–70%
Wind: 6–10 mph blowing in from right field
Chance of rain: 10%
Ballpark impact:
T-Mobile Park is pitcher‑friendly, especially at night
Marine air + wind in = reduced home‑run carry
Favors command pitchers and line‑drive hitters
Team Records & Recent Form
Toronto Blue Jays — 41–46 (4th in AL East)
Last 10 games: 4–6
Strengths: Strong top‑of‑rotation arms, improving bullpen, emerging young hitters
Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, struggles on the road
Road Record: Below .500
Seattle Mariners — 44–43 (3rd in AL West)
Last 10 games: 6–4
Strengths: Elite pitching staff, strong home performance, disciplined lineup
Weaknesses: Streaky offense, occasional bullpen volatility
Home Record: Above .500
Series History
2025–26 meetings: Mariners lead recent matchups
At T-Mobile Park: Seattle has won 6 of the last 8
Trend:
Mariners’ pitching has historically neutralized Toronto’s power
Games often low‑scoring and decided late
Injury Report (Projected)
Toronto Blue Jays
OUT:
Starting LF — oblique strain
QUESTIONABLE:
Setup reliever — shoulder tightness
AVAILABLE:
Full infield and rotation core
Seattle Mariners
OUT:
Backup catcher — knee soreness
QUESTIONABLE:
RF — minor hamstring irritation
AVAILABLE:
Full starting rotation and bullpen
Probable Pitchers
Toronto — Dylan Cease (RHP)
2026 Season: High‑strikeout ace with elite swing‑and‑miss stuff
Strengths:
Fastball/slider combo
Generates whiffs at top of zone
Dominant vs. right‑handed hitters
Weaknesses:
Occasional command lapses
Prone to early‑inning trouble
Can be hit hard if slider isn’t sharp
Seattle — Luis Castillo (RHP)
2026 Season: One of MLB’s most consistent frontline starters
Strengths:
Elite fastball/changeup mix
Excellent home splits
Strong command and strikeout rate
Weaknesses:
Occasional home‑run susceptibility
Can struggle vs. patient lineups
Key Player Matchups
Blue Jays Lineup vs. Luis Castillo
Toronto’s lineup has struggled against elite right‑handed pitching. Castillo’s changeup is a dangerous matchup for Toronto’s aggressive swing profiles.
Advantage: Mariners
Mariners Lineup vs. Dylan Cease
Seattle’s lineup is disciplined and can force Cease into deep counts. If Cease’s slider is sharp, he can dominate; if not, Seattle’s left‑handed bats will capitalize.
Advantage: Even (high‑variance matchup)
Bullpen Comparison
Mariners’ bullpen has been more reliable in late‑inning leverage. Blue Jays’ bullpen is improving but still inconsistent.
Advantage: Mariners
Betting Trends
Toronto Blue Jays
4–6 in last 10
Under has hit in 5 of last 7
Struggles vs. elite pitching
Poor record at T-Mobile Park
Seattle Mariners
6–4 in last 10
Under has hit in 4 of last 6 at home
Strong home record
Excellent vs. AL East opponents
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays – 121
Seattle Mariners 7
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 2, 2026
