Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (48–39) vs. Minnesota Twins (41–46)
Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
Time: 4:10 PM ET
Venue: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Watch: MLB.tv, Bally Sports Sun, Twins.tv
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins open a three-game series on Independence Day at Target Field. The Rays are surging, going 27–13 since May 20, while the Twins limp into this homestand having lost 16 of their last 22 games.
Tampa Bay took two of three from Minnesota in their previous series in late May and enters this matchup with a better road record (20–14) than the Twins’ home mark (22–17).
Starting Pitching Matchup
Zack Littell (Rays)
- Record: 7–7
- ERA: 3.61
- WHIP: 1.18
- Last Start: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H vs. Orioles
- Vs. Twins (May 26): 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, W
Littell has been a model of consistency, allowing 3 runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts. He’s also already beaten the Twins once this season and enters with 11 quality starts.
Chris Paddack (Twins)
- Record: 3–7
- ERA: 4.70
- WHIP: 1.23
- Last Start: 4.2 IP, 3 ER vs. Tigers
- Vs. Rays (May 26): 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, L
Paddack has struggled with consistency and has just one win in his last eight starts. He’s allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five outings.
Key Hitters to Watch
Rays
- Junior Caminero: 21 HR, 53 RBI, .531 SLG
- 4-game hitting streak; 3 HR in last 10 games
- Brandon Lowe: 19 HR, 50 RBI, .274 AVG
- Riding an 18-game hitting streak, batting .380 in that span
- Jonathan Aranda: .320 AVG (3rd in AL)
- Yandy Díaz: .291 AVG, 14 HR, 16 2B
Twins
- Byron Buxton: .277 AVG, 19 HR, 51 RBI
- Leads team in HR and RBI
- Carlos Correa: .259 AVG, 7 HR, 14 2B
- Trevor Larnach: .253 AVG, 12 HR, 13 2B
- Royce Lewis: Hit safely in 6 of last 7 games since return from IL
Team Stats & Trends
| Category | Rays | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Batting Avg | .259 (3rd in AL) | .238 (23rd in MLB) |
| OPS | .735 (8th in MLB) | .698 (22nd in MLB) |
| Home Runs | 100 (12th in MLB) | 97 (13th in MLB) |
| Runs Scored | 389 | 359 |
| Last 10 Games | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.12 (14th in MLB) | 4.01 (12th in MLB) |
Tampa Bay has the edge in both pitching and offensive momentum. Littell has been sharp, and the Rays’ lineup is deeper and more consistent than Minnesota’s, which has struggled to score in recent weeks.
Betting Trends
- Rays are 20–14 on the road
- Twins are 6–16 in their last 22 games
- Rays are 25–16 vs. teams above .500 (best in MLB)
- Under is 7–3 in Rays’ last 10 games with Littell starting
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Rays 9.5
Minnesota Twins – 115
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 3, 2025
