First pitch 12:35 p.m. ET
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
This is the rubber match of a three-game series (series tied 1-1 after the Cardinals’ 5-1 win on Wednesday). It is the Pirates’ home finale. Both teams are playing out the string: the Cardinals need to win out to avoid consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1958-59, while the Pirates need at least a split of their final four games for their first non-losing season since 2018.
Starting Pitchers
Cardinals: RHP Kyle Leahy (10-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 129 K in 138.0 IP over 29 starts). He has been used more carefully of late with shorter outings (recent starts often around 3 IP). Last outing: 3 IP, 5 H, 6 ER vs. Washington on Sept. 18. Career vs. Pirates is limited but includes a recent short start.
Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 192 K in 168.0 IP over 31 starts). The 2025 NL Cy Young winner has had a more ordinary follow-up year. Last start: 6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER vs. Kansas City on Sept. 18. Career vs. Cardinals: 0-5, 2.74 ERA in 7 starts (42.2 IP).
Skenes holds the clear edge on stuff and track record against this opponent, though his overall ERA has risen this season.
Current Weather Forecast (PNC Park)
Mostly sunny, high near 66-68°F, east winds 5-10 mph. Clear overnight with lows in the mid-40s. Ideal early-afternoon conditions with minimal precipitation chance.
Injury Reports
Cardinals:
Everson Pereira (OF, hand contusion) – 10-day IL (rehab assignment).
Blaze Jordan (3B/1B, ankle) – 10-day IL, out for season.
Joshua Báez (OF, oblique) – 10-day IL, out for season.
Hunter Dobbins (SP, forearm/Tommy John) – out for season.
Max Rajcic (RP, elbow/Tommy John) – out for season.
Pirates:
Esmerlyn Valdéz (OF, hamstring) – 10-day IL, out for season.
Braxton Ashcraft (SP, arm) – 15-day IL, out for season.
Isaac Mattson (RP, hip) – 15-day IL.
Mitch Keller (SP, shoulder) – 60-day IL.
Endy Rodríguez (C/1B, hip) – 60-day IL, out for season.
Key absences thin both benches and rotations, but both clubs still field competitive everyday lineups.
Projected/Recent Lineups
Cardinals (from recent and projected): JJ Wetherholt (2B), Iván Herrera (DH/C), Alec Burleson (1B), Jordan Walker (RF), Leo Bernal (C/DH), Bryan Torres/José Fermín (LF), Thomas Saggese/Nolan Gorman (3B), Nathan Church (CF), Masyn Winn (SS).
Pirates (typical recent): Konnor Griffin/Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe (2B), Bryan Reynolds (LF), Oneil Cruz (CF), Nick Gonzales (3B), Ryan O’Hearn, and supporting pieces including Jake Mangum or others in the outfield/middle infield.
Key Player Matchups
Alec Burleson vs. Skenes: Burleson (MLB-leading 112 RBIs, .279 AVG) has historically performed well against him (.400 in limited recent samples with RBIs).
Jordan Walker vs. Skenes: Power threat (28 HR); mixed results but capable of damage.
Brandon Lowe vs. Leahy: Lowe (34 HR) has shown pop; Leahy’s shorter recent outings limit exposure.
JJ Wetherholt / Masyn Winn: Contact and speed elements that can pressure Skenes early.
Oneil Cruz / Bryan Reynolds: Speed/power threats against Leahy’s stuff.
Skenes’ career dominance vs. St. Louis is the standout historical edge.
Recent Team Forms
Cardinals: 4-6 in last 10 (.205 AVG, 3.72 ERA). Won 5-1 on Wednesday (Liberatore solid, Burleson and Wetherholt contributed). Need wins to avoid consecutive losing years.
Pirates: 6-4 in last 10 (.260 AVG, 3.94 ERA). Five-game win streak snapped Wednesday after a 2-0 shutout Tuesday (Jared Jones dominant). Strong home record (43-37).
Series History (2026)
Cardinals lead the season series 7-5 entering Thursday’s game (13th meeting). Recent results: Pirates 2-0 (Sept. 22), Cardinals 5-1 (Sept. 23). Earlier meetings were competitive and split.
Betting Trends
Pirates strong at home and when scoring 5+; Cardinals struggle offensively recently. Skenes starts often stay under higher totals historically.
GAME ODDS
St. Louis Cardinals 7
Pittsburgh Pirates – 158
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026
