Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Probable Pitchers: STL – Leahy (RHP) vs. MIN – Joe Ryan (RHP)
First Pitch: 7:10 PM CT
Venue: Target Field — Minneapolis, Minnesota
Target Field remains one of MLB’s most neutral‑leaning parks, though it slightly suppresses home runs to center and right‑center due to deep power alleys and heavy nighttime air.
Park Factor (Runs): Slightly below league average
Dimensions: 339 LF, 377 LCF, 411 CF, 367 RCF, 328 RF
Surface: Natural grass
Impact: Favors pitchers who generate fly‑ball outs and command the top of the zone.
Weather Forecast
Temperature: 72–74°F at first pitch
Wind: 7–10 mph in from left‑center, mildly suppressing power
Humidity: ~55%
Precipitation: <10% chance
Overall Impact: Slight lean toward unders and pitchers who work up in the zone.
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Edman (Wrist) — Probable, expected to return to lineup
Lars Nootbaar (Oblique) — Out, no return until late June
Steven Matz (Forearm) — Out, 15‑day IL
Jordan Walker (Hand contusion) — Day‑to‑day, likely bench role tonight
Minnesota Twins
Carlos Correa (Back tightness) — Questionable, trending toward playing
Royce Lewis (Hamstring) — Out, mid‑July target
Max Kepler (Knee) — Day‑to‑day, expected to be available
Jhoan Duran (Shoulder fatigue) — Out, bullpen depth weakened
Team Records & Recent Form
St. Louis Cardinals (37–29)
Last 10: 6–4
Road Record: 18–15
Run Differential: +18
Trend: Pitching has stabilized; offense inconsistent but timely
Key Note: Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 series.
Minnesota Twins (31–39)
Last 10: 4–6
Home Record: 15–20
Run Differential: –34
Trend: Offense remains streaky; bullpen unreliable without Duran
Key Note: Twins have lost 7 of their last 9 vs. teams above .500.
Pitching Matchup
STL – Leahy (RHP)
A command‑first righty who mixes a four‑seamer, cutter, and curveball.
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.21
K/BB: 3.4
Road ERA: 3.28
Strengths: Keeps ball in park, induces soft contact, thrives in big parks
Weaknesses: Can struggle vs. left‑handed power if cutter flattens
Matchup Outlook: Target Field suits him; Twins’ lineup lacks consistent lefty threats.
MIN – Joe Ryan (RHP)
A high‑spin fastball pitcher who lives at the top of the zone.
2026 Stats:
ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.17
K/BB: 4.8
Home ERA: 3.89
Strengths: Elite fastball ride, strong command, excellent vs. righties
Weaknesses: Vulnerable to HRs when fastball leaks middle
Matchup Outlook: Cardinals’ right‑heavy lineup plays into his strengths, but STL’s lefties (Gorman, Donovan) are dangerous.
Key Player Matchups
Cardinals Hitters vs. Joe Ryan
Nolan Gorman: Prime HR candidate; Ryan’s high fastball can be punished by uppercut swings
Paul Goldschmidt: Historically strong vs. high‑spin fastballs
Brendan Donovan: Contact profile matches well vs. Ryan’s elevated heater
Twins Hitters vs. Leahy
Byron Buxton: Power/speed threat but struggles vs. cutters
Carlos Correa (if active): Best matchup for MIN; handles spin well
Alex Kirilloff: Twins’ best lefty bat; key to generating early offense
Series History
2023–2025 Combined: Cardinals lead 10–7
At Target Field: Twins lead 5–4
Recent Trend: Cardinals have won 4 of the last 6 meetings overall.
Betting Trends
St. Louis
7–3 last 10 as road favorite
Under is 6–2 in last 8 Leahy starts
Cardinals 5–1 last 6 vs. AL Central
Minnesota
3–7 last 10 home games
Under is 8–3 in last 11 Twins home games
Twins 2–8 last 10 vs. teams above .500
Head‑to‑Head
Under is 5–1 in last 6 meetings
Road team is 4–1 in last 5
GAME ODDS
St. Louis Cardinals 8.5
Minnesota Twins – 131
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, June 11, 2026
