MLB Game Preview: Seattle Mariners (73-64) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (67-69)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 7:35 PM ET
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field, 1 Steinbrenner Drive, Tampa, FL 33614
• Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW (Seattle), Bally Sports Sun (Tampa Bay), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast (Tampa, FL)

• Conditions: Mostly clear, warm evening
• Temperature: ~75°F (24°C) at first pitch
• Humidity: ~70%
• Wind: Light breeze ~7 mph from the west
• Precipitation: <5% — dry conditions expected
• Impact: Minimal wind effect; warm, humid air could slightly aid carry to the gaps

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

• Trent Thornton (RP) – 60‑Day IL, Achilles
• Logan Evans (SP) – 15‑Day IL, elbow
• Gregory Santos (RP) – 60‑Day IL, knee
• Ryan Bliss (INF) – 60‑Day IL, biceps

Tampa Bay Rays

• Stuart Fairchild (OF) – 60‑Day IL, oblique
• Ha‑Seong Kim (INF) – 10‑Day IL, back
• Taylor Walls (INF) – 10‑Day IL, groin
• Jonny DeLuca (OF) – 10‑Day IL, hamstring
• Jonathan Aranda (INF) – 10‑Day IL, wrist
• Manuel Rodriguez (RP) – 60‑Day IL, forearm
• Hunter Bigge (RP) – 60‑Day IL, lat
• Richie Palacios (OF) – 60‑Day IL, knee
• Shane McClanahan (SP) – 60‑Day IL, triceps
• Alex Faedo (SP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Nathan Lavender (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Projected Starting Pitchers

• SEA: RHP Luis Castillo (8‑7, 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 133 K in 151.1 IP) – 14 quality starts; 5.04 ERA on the road; 7 IP, 2 ER vs. TB on Aug. 8.
• TB: RHP Shane Baz (8‑11, 5.19 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 150 K in 144 IP) – 10 quality starts; 7.06 ERA at home; 0‑6, 8.47 ERA in last 7 starts.

Key Player Matchups

Seattle Mariners Offense

• Cal Raleigh: 50 HR (MLB leader), 107 RBI — power anchor; .316 AVG last 10 games.
• Julio Rodríguez: .266 AVG, 24 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 78 RBI — 6‑game hit streak.
• Josh Naylor: .283 AVG — team batting leader.
• Eugenio Suárez: 42 HR — extreme power, high K rate.

Tampa Bay Rays Offense

• Junior Caminero: 39 HR, 94 RBI — 6th in MLB HR, 7th in RBI.
• Yandy Díaz: .284 AVG, 25 2B, 22 HR — consistent contact bat.
• Brandon Lowe: 28 HR — grand slam in last series; 4‑game hit streak.
• Chandler Simpson: .295 AVG, 11 2B, 3 3B — speed threat.

Recent Form

Seattle Mariners

• Last 10: 5‑5 (.220 AVG, 4.29 ERA, +1 run diff)
• Road record: 32‑37
• Over is 5‑2 in last 7 road games

Tampa Bay Rays

• Last 10: 6‑4 (.247 AVG, 2.69 ERA, +18 run diff)
• Home record: 34‑33
• Over is 4‑0‑1 in last 5 home games

Series History

• 2025 Season: Mariners lead 3‑0 (swept Aug. 8‑10 in Seattle)
• Since June 2024: Mariners have won 6 of last 7 meetings
• All‑Time: Mariners lead 33‑32

Betting Trends

Seattle Mariners

• 54.3% win rate as favorite (51‑43)
• 3‑7 ATS last 10 games
• Over in 72 of 136 games this season

Tampa Bay Rays

• 59.7% win rate as favorite (40‑27)
• 6‑4 ATS last 10 games
• Over in 56 of 135 games this season

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Castillo’s road ERA (5.04) vs. Baz’s home ERA (7.06) — both vulnerable in this park
• Mariners’ power (194 HR, 3rd MLB) vs. Rays’ mid‑tier HR prevention
• Rays’ recent offensive surge at home + Mariners’ Over trend on road
• Mariners’ dominance in recent head‑to‑head matchups