MLB Game Preview: Baltimore Orioles (61-76) vs. San Diego Padres (76-61)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 6:40 PM ET / 3:40 PM PT
• Venue: PETCO Park, 100 Park Boulevard, San Diego, CA 92101
• Broadcast: SDPA (San Diego), MASN2 (Baltimore), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast (San Diego, CA)

• Conditions: Mostly sunny, warm
• Temperature: ~78°F (26°C) at first pitch
• Humidity: ~63%
• Wind: 6–10 mph from the west, minimal gameplay impact
• Precipitation: 0% — ideal baseball weather

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

• Brandon Young (SP) – 60‑Day IL, hamstring
• Scott Blewett (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Gary Sánchez (C) – 60‑Day IL, knee
• Jordan Westburg (INF) – 10‑Day IL, ankle
• Félix Bautista (CL) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Adley Rutschman (C) – 10‑Day IL, oblique
• Zach Eflin (SP) – 60‑Day IL, back
• Tyler O’Neill (OF) – 10‑Day IL, wrist
• Colin Selby (RP) – 15‑Day IL, hamstring
• Jorge Mateo (SS) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Grayson Rodriguez (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Albert Suárez (SP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Tyler Wells (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

San Diego Padres

• Xander Bogaerts (SS) – 10‑Day IL, foot
• Jackson Merrill (OF) – 10‑Day IL, ankle
• Michael King (SP) – 15‑Day IL, knee
• Jhony Brito (RP) – 60‑Day IL, forearm
• Joe Musgrove (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Projected Starting Pitchers

• BAL: RHP Kyle Bradish (0‑1, 3.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10 K in 6.0 IP) – Second start of season; elite WHIP in small sample.
• SD: RHP Dylan Cease (6‑11, 4.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 183 K in 142.2 IP) – 11.6 K/9; 7 quality starts; volatile but overpowering.

Key Player Matchups

San Diego Padres Offense

• Manny Machado: .286 AVG, 32 2B, 21 HR, 79 RBI — team leader in RBI; .466 SLG.
• Fernando Tatis Jr.: .264 AVG, 27 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 81 BB — .370 OBP; 27 SB.
• Luis Arraez: .282 AVG, 29 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR — elite contact hitter.
• Ramón Laureano: .294 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI — 2 HR in last 5 games.

Baltimore Orioles Offense

• Gunnar Henderson: .280 AVG, 16 HR, 61 RBI — team leader in AVG, HR, RBI.
• Jackson Holliday: .246 AVG, 19 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR — .313 OBP; 14 SB.
• Ryan Mountcastle: .264 AVG, 17 2B, 5 HR — steady middle‑order bat.
• Colton Cowser: .211 AVG, 12 HR — streaky power threat.

Recent Form

San Diego Padres

• Last 10: 5‑5 (.261 AVG, 5.02 ERA, +1 run diff)
• Home record: 43‑22
• Over in 7 of last 10 games

Baltimore Orioles

• Last 10: 2‑8 (.256 AVG, 5.63 ERA, ‑19 run diff)
• Road record: 30‑39
• Lost all 7 recent games as underdog

Series History

• All‑Time: Padres lead 14‑13 (.519 win pct)
• Last Meeting: July 28, 2024 — Orioles won 8‑6 at Camden Yards
• Padres’ longest win streak vs. Orioles: 4 games (Aug 2023–Jul 2024)

Betting Trends

San Diego Padres

• 61.1% win rate as favorite (44‑28)
• 16‑9 when favored at -160 or shorter
• 5‑5 ATS last 10 games
• Over in 59 of 137 games this season

Baltimore Orioles

• 43.2% win rate as underdog (32‑42)
• 5‑12 when +135 or longer
• 4‑6 ATS last 10 games
• Over in 59 of 137 games this season

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Padres’ dominant home record vs. Orioles’ road struggles
• Cease’s strikeout upside vs. Baltimore’s 21st‑ranked team AVG (.242)
• Bradish’s small‑sample success but limited workload
• Padres’ recent Over trend (7 of last 10) vs. Orioles’ bullpen ERA (4.67, 26th MLB)