MLB Game Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (60-76) vs. Boston Red Sox (75-61)

Date: Saturday, August 30, 2025
Time: 4:10 PM ET
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Broadcast: MLB Network, NESN, SportsNet PT

Weather Forecast

• Conditions: Partly cloudy
• Temperature: 76°F (24°C)
• Wind: 8 mph NW
• Humidity: 58%
• Impact: Mild breeze could slightly favor right-handed power hitters.

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox:

• RHP Tanner Houck (Tommy John surgery) – Out for season
• INF Triston Casas (patellar tendon rupture) – Out
• RHP Kutter Crawford (wrist surgery) – Out
• OF Wilyer Abreu (calf strain) – 10-day IL
• INF Marcelo Mayer (wrist sprain) – 10-day IL
• RHP Josh Winckowski, RHP Luis Guerrero, RHP Hunter Dobbins, LHP Patrick Sandoval – All on 60-day IL

Pittsburgh Pirates:

• OF Jack Suwinski (groin strain) – 10-day IL
• C Endy Rodríguez, INF Enmanuel Valdez, RHP Justin Lawrence, LHP Tim Mayza, RHP Jared Jones – All on 60-day IL

Starting Pitchers

Recent Form

Boston Red Sox:

• Last 10: 7–3
• Runs/Game: 4.2
• ERA: 2.57
• ATS: 4–6
• Home Record: 41–25

Pittsburgh Pirates:

• Last 10: 7–3
• Runs/Game: 4.5
• ERA: 2.65
• ATS: 8–2
• Road Record: 20–46

Key Player Matchups

• Trevor Story (BOS): 22 HR, 84 RBI – vs. Oviedo’s fastball-heavy arsenal
• Bryan Reynolds (PIT): 66 RBI – vs. May’s declining strikeout rate
• Roman Anthony (BOS): 3 HR in last 10 games – hot bat
• Andrew McCutchen (PIT): 3-for-3 last game, 12 HR season
• Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS): .249 AVG, 29 doubles – key contact hitter
• Oneil Cruz (PIT): 18 HR – power threat vs. May’s fly-ball tendencies

Series History

• All-time: Red Sox lead 18–14
• 2024: Red Sox swept 3–0
• 2023: Pirates swept 3–0
• 2025: Pirates lead series 1–0 after Friday’s 4–2 win

Betting Trends

• Pirates are 8–2 ATS in last 10
• Red Sox are 5–2 as ML favorites in last 7
• Pirates are 60.3% to the Under on the road
• Red Sox games have gone Over in 65 of 134
• Pirates games have gone Over in 56 of 134

Rationale:

• Both teams are averaging 4.5+ runs over their last 8 games.
• Pirates’ offense has surged behind Pham, McCutchen, and Reynolds.
• Red Sox bullpen has shown vulnerability late.
• Oviedo’s limited innings could expose Pittsburgh’s middle relief.
• Fenway’s dimensions and weather favor extra-base hits.