First Pitch: 7:45 PM ET / 6:45 PM CT
Venue: Busch Stadium — St. Louis, Missouri
Broadcast: SportsNet Pittsburgh / Bally Sports Midwest / MLB.TV
Venue Profile — Busch Stadium
- Location: Downtown St. Louis
- Capacity: ~45,500
- Park Factor: Slightly pitcher‑friendly
- Home Run Profile: Suppresses opposite‑field power; neutral to pull power
- Run Environment: Moderate scoring, heavily influenced by humidity and wind
Busch Stadium rewards ground‑ball pitchers and contact‑oriented offenses, which plays into St. Louis’ strengths.
Weather Update (Forecast for First Pitch)
- Temperature: 78–81°F
- Wind: 6–9 mph blowing in from right‑center
- Humidity: ~62%
- Chance of Rain: <10%
- Impact: Slight suppression of fly‑ball carry; advantage to pitchers
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Oneil Cruz — Probable (ankle)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes — Out (back)
- Henry Davis — Questionable (hand)
- David Bednar — Out (forearm)
- Marco Gonzales — Out (elbow)
St. Louis Cardinals
- Paul Goldschmidt — Probable (hamstring)
- Nolan Arenado — Probable (wrist)
- Tommy Edman — Out (shoulder)
- Ryan Helsley — Out (lat strain)
- Lars Nootbaar — Questionable (illness)
Impact:
- Pittsburgh’s bullpen is weakened without Bednar, making late‑inning leads fragile.
- St. Louis missing Edman hurts defensive versatility, but Goldschmidt and Arenado being active stabilizes the lineup.
- Both teams enter with key players banged up, but St. Louis’ depth is stronger.
Team Records & Recent Form
Pittsburgh Pirates (25–24)
Last 10: 5–5 Road Record: 12–13 Run Differential: –4 Team Identity:
- Young, aggressive lineup
- Inconsistent starting pitching
- Bullpen volatility without Bednar
Recent Trends:
- Averaging 4.3 runs per game over last 10
- Team ERA last 10 games: 4.61
- Pirates have alternated wins and losses for eight straight games
St. Louis Cardinals (28–20)
Last 10: 7–3 Home Record: 15–9 Run Differential: +22 Team Identity:
- Veteran core with strong situational hitting
- Deep rotation
- Reliable bullpen despite Helsley’s absence
Recent Trends:
- Averaging 4.9 runs per game over last 10
- Team ERA last 10 games: 3.72
- Cardinals have won three straight series
Key Player Matchups
1. Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs. Logan May (STL)
- Cruz’s elite bat speed vs. May’s heavy sinker.
- May induces ground balls at a 54% rate, ideal for neutralizing power hitters.
- Cruz struggles vs. low‑in‑zone sinkers.
Edge: May, if he keeps the ball down.
2. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Cardinals Bullpen
- Reynolds is hitting .333 over his last 10 games.
- St. Louis’ bullpen ERA vs. LHB is 3.41, one of the best in the NL.
- Reynolds must produce early before late‑inning matchups tighten.
Edge: St. Louis, innings 7–9.
3. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) vs. Brandon Ashcraft (PIT)
- Goldschmidt owns a career .310 average vs. power sinker/slider pitchers.
- Ashcraft’s command issues (1.38 WHIP) make him vulnerable to veteran hitters.
- Goldschmidt thrives at Busch Stadium in warm weather.
Edge: Goldschmidt, especially with runners on.
4. Nolan Arenado (STL) vs. Pirates Pitching
- Arenado’s pull power plays well with wind blowing in from right‑center.
- Pirates’ bullpen struggles vs. RHB (4.82 ERA).
- Arenado is heating up: 3 HR in last 7 games.
Edge: Arenado, particularly late.
Series History
- 2025 Season: Cardinals won series 10–9
- Last 20 meetings: St. Louis leads 12–8
- At Busch Stadium: Cardinals have won 8 of last 11
Trend: St. Louis consistently outperforms Pittsburgh at home, especially in close games.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Brandon Ashcraft — RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 Season:
- Record: 3–4
- ERA: 4.52
- WHIP: 1.38
- K/BB: 42/18
- HR Allowed: 6
Pitch Mix:
- Sinker: 96 mph
- Slider: 87 mph
- Cutter: 92 mph
- Changeup: 84 mph
Scouting Notes:
- Generates weak contact when sinker is located
- Struggles vs. disciplined lineups
- High pitch counts limit his outings
Logan May — RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
2026 Season:
- Record: 4–2
- ERA: 3.41
- WHIP: 1.19
- K/BB: 51/14
- HR Allowed: 5
Pitch Mix:
- Sinker: 94 mph
- Curveball: 79 mph
- Slider: 85 mph
- Changeup: 82 mph
Scouting Notes:
- Excellent command
- Ground‑ball specialist
- Effective vs. both LHB and RHB
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (Run Line)
- Pirates: 24–25 RL
- Cardinals: 26–22 RL
- Cardinals are 14–10 RL at home
Totals (O/U)
- Pirates: 27–22 to the Over
- Cardinals: 24–24 to the Over
- Busch Stadium: Slight Under park
Situational Trends
- Cardinals are 8–2 in last 10 home games
- Pirates are 3–7 in last 10 road games vs. winning teams
- May Overs have hit in 4 of last 6 starts
GAME ODDS
Pittsburgh Pirates – 120
St. Louis Cardinals 7
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, May 20, 2026
