Scheduled First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Venue Type: Indoor retractable‑roof stadium; plays pitcher‑friendly with large outfield dimensions.
WEATHER FORECAST — MIAMI, FL
(Roof expected to be closed due to heat/humidity)
Temperature: 89°F outside
Humidity: 72%
Wind: 12 mph SSE
Precipitation: 40% chance of evening thunderstorms
With the roof likely closed, weather will not materially affect run environment.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Philadelphia — RHP Aaron Nola
2026 Season: 9–7, 3.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, sinker, curveball, changeup
Marlins struggle vs. elite curveballs (team OPS .612 vs. CBs)
Road ERA: 3.74
Strength: elite command, high strikeout rate
Vulnerability: HRs vs. left‑handed hitters
Miami — RHP Sandy Alcantara
2026 Season: 7–8, 3.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Arsenal: sinker, slider, changeup
Phillies hit sinkers well (team SLG .472 vs sinkers)
Home ERA: 3.41
Strength: ground‑ball machine, elite stamina
Vulnerability: struggles when behind in counts; Phillies are patient
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Philadelphia Phillies — Last 10 Games: 6–4
Runs per game: 4.8
Bullpen ERA: 3.55
Road record: 28–26
Strength: top‑five NL power, strong rotation depth
Weakness: streaky offense vs. elite pitching
Miami Marlins — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Runs per game: 4.2
Bullpen ERA: 4.29
Home record: 29–25
Strength: contact‑heavy lineup, strong home pitching
Weakness: inconsistent run production, low HR totals
INJURY REPORT
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryce Harper — Day‑to‑Day (back tightness)
Trea Turner — Active
Kyle Schwarber — Active
Taijuan Walker — IL (shoulder)
Miami Marlins
Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Day‑to‑Day (ankle)
Jake Burger — IL (oblique)
Luis Arraez — Active
Edward Cabrera — IL (lat)
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Aaron Nola vs. Luis Arraez
Arraez vs. curveballs: .331 AVG
Nola’s curveball is his signature pitch Edge: Arraez — elite bat‑to‑ball skills
Aaron Nola vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Chisholm vs. changeups: .214 AVG
Nola’s changeup is effective vs. LHB Edge: Nola
Sandy Alcantara vs. Bryce Harper
Harper vs. sinkers: .302 AVG, .511 SLG
Alcantara relies heavily on his sinker Edge: Harper — if healthy enough to start
Sandy Alcantara vs. Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber vs. sliders: .241 AVG, .509 SLG
Alcantara’s slider is his strikeout pitch Edge: Even — power vs. movement
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Phillies lead 3–2
Last 20 meetings: Philadelphia 12–8
At loanDepot Park (last 3 seasons): Miami 10–8
Games between these teams often trend low‑scoring due to park dimensions.
BETTING TRENDS
Philadelphia
Phillies are 7–3 in their last 10 vs. NL East
Under is 6–4 in their last 10 road games
Philadelphia is 6–2 in Nola’s last 8 starts
Miami
Marlins are 5–5 in their last 10 home games
Under is 8–3 in their last 11 overall
Miami is 4–7 in Alcantara’s last 11 starts
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 7 of last 10 meetings
Phillies have scored 4+ runs in 4 straight vs. Miami
Marlins have not won a home series vs. Philadelphia since 2024
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Nola: 2.7 WAR
Alcantara: 2.1 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Philadelphia: .739
Miami: .703
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Philadelphia: 3.41
Miami: 4.36
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Philadelphia: 4.2–5.0 runs
Miami: 3.5–4.3 runs
Game Odds
Philadelphia Phillies 8
Miami Marlins – 110
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 27, 2026
