Fenway Park, Boston, MA
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET / 4:10 PM PT
Broadcast: YES Network / NESN / MLB.tv
Probable Pitchers:
- NYY — RHP Will Warren (6–4, 3.41 ERA)
- BOS — LHP Carson Tolle (1–2, 4.88 ERA)
Venue Information — Fenway Park
- Location: Boston, Massachusetts
- Capacity: ~37,755
- Dimensions: LF 310 ft (Green Monster), CF 390 ft, RF 302 ft (Pesky Pole)
- Ballpark Tendencies:
- Boosts right‑handed pull power
- Deep right‑center suppresses HRs
- High doubles/triples park due to quirky angles
Weather Forecast (Boston, MA)
- Temperature: 78°F at first pitch
- Wind: 7 mph blowing out to left
- Humidity: 63%
- Conditions: Clear, mild summer evening Impact: Slight boost to right‑handed power hitters; good hitting weather overall.
Injury Report
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge — ACTIVE (rest day Thursday, fully available)
- Giancarlo Stanton — OUT (hamstring strain, 10‑day IL)
- Anthony Rizzo — OUT (forearm fracture, 60‑day IL)
- Jonathan Loáisiga — OUT (elbow inflammation)
- Clarke Schmidt — OUT (lat strain)
Boston Red Sox
- Triston Casas — OUT (rib fracture, 60‑day IL)
- Trevor Story — OUT (shoulder surgery)
- Nick Pivetta — OUT (forearm tightness)
- Kenley Jansen — DAY‑TO‑DAY (back stiffness)
- Wilyer Abreu — ACTIVE (returned from ankle sprain)
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Yankees (48–32)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Road Record: 23–17
- Run Differential: +63
- Trend: Offense heating back up after mid‑June slump; pitching stabilizing.
Boston Red Sox (33–46)
- Last 10: 3–7
- Home Record: 15–23
- Run Differential: –54
- Trend: Bullpen struggling; offense inconsistent without Casas and Story.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Will Warren — RHP, Yankees
2026 Stats: 6–4, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 78 K in 84 IP
Strengths
- Heavy sinker/slider combo
- Generates ground balls at a high rate
- Excellent vs. left‑handed hitters this season
- Keeps ball in the yard (only 6 HR allowed)
Weaknesses
- Occasional command lapses
- Can struggle second time through order if slider flattens
Matchup vs. Red Sox
- Boston ranks bottom‑5 in MLB vs. sliders
- Fenway’s dimensions favor Warren’s ground‑ball profile
- Good matchup on paper
Carson Tolle — LHP, Red Sox
2026 Stats: 1–2, 4.88 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 19 K in 24 IP
Strengths
- Good deception from low arm slot
- Strong changeup vs. right‑handers
- Keeps hitters off balance early in counts
Weaknesses
- Limited MLB experience
- Fastball velocity below league average
- Struggles when behind in counts
- Vulnerable to power right‑handers
Matchup vs. Yankees
- Yankees’ lineup features multiple right‑handed sluggers
- Judge, Volpe, Torres, and Wells all profile well vs. Tolle’s pitch mix
- Potentially difficult outing if he cannot locate changeup
Key Player Matchups
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Carson Tolle
- Judge crushes low‑velocity lefties
- Fenway’s LF wall is tailor‑made for his line‑drive power Edge: Judge
Juan Soto (NYY) vs. LHP
- Soto’s OBP vs. lefties remains elite
- Tolle’s changeup must be perfect Edge: Soto
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Will Warren
- Devers hits sinkers well
- Warren must avoid middle‑in location Edge: Even
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) vs. Warren
- Abreu struggles vs. sliders
- Warren’s best pitch Edge: Warren
Series History
2026 Season Series
- Yankees lead 4–2
- Yankees have outscored Boston 34–22
- NYY pitching has held BOS to 3 runs or fewer in 4 of 6 games
At Fenway Park (Last 20 Games)
- Yankees lead 12–8
- Average total runs: 9.7 per game
Betting Trends
New York Yankees
- 7 of last 10: UNDER
- 5 straight wins when scoring first
- 8–3 in Will Warren’s last 11 starts
- 6–1 last 7 vs. teams under .500
Boston Red Sox
- 6 of last 8: OVER
- 2–8 in last 10 home games
- 1–5 in Carson Tolle starts
- 3–12 last 15 vs. AL East opponents
GAME ODDS
New York Yankees – 111
Boston Red Sox 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, June 25, 2026
