First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass Dimensions: LF 335 ft, CF 408 ft, RF 330 ft Park Factor: Slightly pitcher‑friendly, suppresses HRs to center and opposite field
Venue & Weather Conditions
Citi Field — Queens, NY
Forecast (May 17, 2026):
- Temperature: 71–74°F
- Wind: 10–13 mph blowing in from right-center
- Humidity: ~55%
- Precipitation: <10%
- Impact:
- Wind blowing in suppresses left‑handed power
- Favors pitchers with fly‑ball tendencies
- Run scoring environment slightly below average
Team Form & Context
New York Yankees (28–18)
- Have won 6 of last 8, one of the hottest teams in the AL.
- Offense averaging 5.0 runs/game in May.
- Rotation ERA in last 10 games: 3.41
- Bullpen has been elite (2.98 ERA in May).
- Eduardo Rodriguez has been a stabilizing mid‑rotation force.
New York Mets (19–26)
- Have lost 7 of last 10, struggling to find consistency.
- Offense averaging 3.9 runs/game in May.
- Pitching staff has been inconsistent, but Peralta has been a bright spot.
- Mets are 10–13 at home, below league average.
Injury Report
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge — Day‑to‑Day (hip tightness)
- Giancarlo Stanton — OUT (hamstring)
- Gleyber Torres — Day‑to‑Day (wrist)
- Jonathan Loáisiga — OUT (elbow)
Impact: If Judge sits, the Yankees lose their most dangerous bat. Stanton’s absence reduces right‑handed power.
New York Mets
- Francisco Lindor — Day‑to‑Day (ankle)
- Pete Alonso — OUT (wrist fracture)
- Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder)
- Brooks Raley — Day‑to‑Day (back)
Impact: Without Alonso, the Mets lack a true middle‑order power threat. Lindor’s status is critical for run creation.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Eduardo Rodriguez — LHP, New York Yankees
2026 Season Stats:
- Record: 4–2
- ERA: 3.62
- WHIP: 1.18
- K/BB: 47/12
- HR Allowed: 5
- Opp BA: .232
Profile:
- 92–94 mph fastball
- Cutter/changeup combo is his bread and butter
- Excellent vs. right‑handed hitters (.218 allowed)
- Road ERA: 3.41
- Generates weak contact; elite at limiting HRs
Matchup vs. Mets:
- Mets struggle vs. left‑handed pitching (.229 team BA vs. LHP).
- Citi Field’s dimensions + wind in favor Rodriguez’s fly‑ball suppression.
Freddy Peralta — RHP, New York Mets
2026 Season Stats:
- Record: 3–4
- ERA: 3.71
- WHIP: 1.16
- K/BB: 62/17
- HR Allowed: 6
- Opp BA: .221
Profile:
- 94–96 mph fastball with elite vertical ride
- Slider and curveball generate high whiff rates
- High strikeout pitcher (top 10% MLB)
- Home ERA: 3.28
- Vulnerable to left‑handed power (.254 allowed)
Matchup vs. Yankees:
- Yankees’ lefties (Rizzo, Verdugo, Soto) match up well vs. Peralta’s fastball/slider mix.
- If Judge plays, Peralta’s margin for error shrinks significantly.
Key Player Matchups
Yankees Hitters vs. Peralta
- Juan Soto: .312 vs. high‑ride fastballs; elite matchup
- Anthony Rizzo: Power threat with wind neutralizing some pull power
- Alex Verdugo: Contact hitter who handles velocity well
- Anthony Volpe: Struggles vs. elite breaking balls
Edge: Yankees, especially if Soto is locked in.
Mets Hitters vs. Rodriguez
- Brandon Nimmo: Strong OBP but limited power vs. LHP
- Starling Marte: Good vs. cutters; Mets’ best matchup
- J.D. Martinez: Still dangerous vs. lefties
- Francisco Lindor: If active, key switch‑hitter who can attack Rodriguez’s changeup
Edge: Slight Rodriguez, unless Lindor plays and is fully healthy.
Series History
- Yankees lead all-time Subway Series 78–58.
- At Citi Field: Yankees lead 35–28.
- Yankees have won 6 of last 9 meetings.
- Mets have not won a season series since 2021.
Wagering Trends
New York Yankees
- 6–2 in last 8
- Under is 7–3 in last 10
- 5–1 in last 6 vs. NL East
- Rodriguez starts: NYY is 6–3
New York Mets
- 3–7 in last 10
- Under is 6–2 in last 8 at home
- 2–8 in last 10 vs. teams above .500
- Peralta starts: NYM is 3–5
Head‑to‑Head Trends
- Under is 5–2 in last 7 meetings
- Yankees have covered run line in 4 of last 6
- Games at Citi Field average 7.6 runs over last 10 matchups
GAME ODDS
New York Yankees – 112
New York Mets 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, May 16, 2026
