Venue: American Family Field — Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Scheduled First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. EDT (4:40 p.m. PDT)
Probable Pitchers:
NYM: Zach Thornton (RHP) — 0–1, 2.60 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 15 K
MIL: Brandon Sproat (RHP) — 3–4, 5.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 87 K
Gametime Weather: 77°F in Milwaukee (roofed stadium; weather minimally impacts run environment)
Team Form & Statistical Profile
New York Mets
Record: 42–59 overall; 21–31 away
Offense:
4.1 runs/game (26th MLB)
.234 AVG / .304 OBP / .382 SLG; 117 HR, 785 hits, 390 RBI
Pitching:
4.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 918 K, 111 HR allowed
Bullpen: 17 saves in 30 chances (56.7%), 38 holds, 28.6% inherited runners scored
Last 10 Games: 4–6, .241 AVG, 4.55 ERA, –7 run differential
Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 63–37 overall; 33–18 at home
Offense:
5.10 runs/game, .253 AVG (5th NL)
Jake Bauers: 15 doubles, 18 HR; Joey Ortiz: 9‑for‑34 with 3 HR last 10 games
Pitching:
3.74 RA/game; strong run prevention profile
Last 10 Games: 6–4, .244 AVG, 4.55 ERA, +7 run differential
Series History & Matchup Context
Season Series: Brewers lead 1–0 after an 8–3 win on July 20
Last 10 H2H: Brewers lead 6–4; O/U 7–3 (high‑scoring trend)
Brewers enter on a 4‑game home win streak
American Family Field is moderately hitter‑friendly, especially for right‑handed pull power—relevant for Bauers, Ortiz, and Soto.
Injury Reports
Brewers Injuries
Joel Kuhnel (shoulder), Sal Frelick (shoulder), Rob Zastryzny (shoulder), David Hamilton (hamstring), Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), Kyle Harrison (forearm), Brandon Lockridge (knee), Brian Fitzpatrick (elbow), D.L. Hall (pectoral), Quinn Priester (wrist), Angel Zerpa (forearm)
Mets Injuries
Justin Hagenman (rib), Mark Vientos (hand), Austin Warren (forearm), Clay Holmes (fibula), Reed Garrett (elbow), Tylor Megill (elbow), Dedniel Nunez (elbow)
Both teams are missing pitching depth, but Milwaukee’s rotation injuries are more significant—though their bullpen and lineup have compensated.
Key Player Matchups
1. Zach Thornton vs. Brewers’ Power Cluster (Bauers, Ortiz)
Thornton’s 0.92 WHIP suggests elite control, but Milwaukee’s lineup punishes mistakes.
Bauers: 18 HR, strong pull power.
Ortiz: hot form (3 HR last 10). If Thornton keeps traffic low, he can neutralize Milwaukee’s HR‑driven scoring.
2. Brandon Sproat vs. Juan Soto
Soto leads the Mets with 21 HR and .547 SLG—the most dangerous bat in the matchup. Sproat’s 5.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP indicate vulnerability if he falls behind in counts.
3. Bullpen Battle
Mets: 56.7% save rate, 28.6% inherited runners scored (high‑risk)
Brewers: stronger run prevention overall; better late‑inning stability.
Milwaukee has a clear bullpen advantage.
Betting Trends
Mets: 47–48 O/U, 4–6 last 10, –$290 last 10 ML performance
Brewers: 45–53 O/U, 6–4 last 10, +$38 last 10 ML performance
Mets are 23–13 when hitting 2+ HR (their clearest win path)
Game Odds
New York Mets 9
Milwaukee Brewers – 128
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 20, 2026
