Truist Park — Atlanta, GA
First Pitch: 1:35 PM EDT
Venue & Conditions
Truist Park
Surface: Natural grass
Dimensions: 335 LF / 400 CF / 325 RF
Ballpark Profile: Slightly hitter‑friendly, especially for right‑handed pull hitters.
Weather Forecast — Atlanta, GA
Temperature: 89–94°F
Conditions: Hot, humid Southeast afternoon
Wind: Blowing out to LF at 7–10 mph
Rain Chance: ~30% (isolated thunderstorms possible)
Impact: Warm, humid air + LF wind boosts HR potential for right‑handed hitters; pitchers must keep the ball down.
Team Overview
New York Mets (36–53)
Last 10 Games: 3–7
Road Record: 17–28
Run Differential: -62
Recent Form: Offense struggling; rotation inconsistent; bullpen unreliable in late innings.
Atlanta Braves (52–35)
Last 10 Games: 7–3
Home Record: 29–15
Run Differential: +54
Recent Form: Offense heating up; rotation strong; bullpen trending upward.
Starting Pitchers
New York — RHP McLean
2026 Stats:
ERA: 4.48
WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.2
BB/9: 3.1
Recent Starts: 5 IP, 3 ER; 6 IP, 2 ER; 4.2 IP, 5 ER
Profile:
Fastball/slider mix
Generates swing‑and‑miss when ahead
Struggles with command vs. left‑handed hitters
Matchup Outlook:
Braves’ lefties (Harris II, Olson) pose major threats
Must avoid elevated fastballs in HR‑friendly conditions
Atlanta — LHP M. Pérez
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.6
Recent Starts: 6 IP, 1 ER; 7 IP, 2 ER; 5 IP, 3 ER
Profile:
Power fastball with late life
Excellent vs. right‑handed hitters
Keeps ball on the ground
Matchup Outlook:
Mets’ right‑handed core (Alonso, Lindor, Marte) must adjust to elevated fastball
Pérez’s ground‑ball tendencies help neutralize Mets’ power
Injury Report
New York Mets
OUT:
RP Edwin Díaz — elbow inflammation
QUESTIONABLE:
OF Starling Marte — minor groin tightness
ACTIVE:
Pete Alonso fully healthy
Francisco Lindor available
Atlanta Braves
OUT:
RP A.J. Minter — shoulder strain
QUESTIONABLE:
OF Michael Harris II — minor ankle soreness
ACTIVE:
Ronald Acuña Jr. fully healthy
Matt Olson available
Key Player Matchups
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) vs. McLean (NYM)
Acuña crushes fastballs
McLean must avoid middle‑in locations
2. Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. M. Pérez (ATL)
Alonso’s power vs. Pérez’s elevated fastball
LF wind boosts Alonso’s HR potential
3. Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Mets Bullpen
Olson’s late‑inning power is dangerous
Mets’ bullpen allows high HR rates
4. Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Pérez
Lindor handles left‑handed pitching well
Pérez must keep slider sharp
Series History
2026 Season Series: Braves lead 4–1
Last 10 Meetings: Braves 7–3
Trend: Atlanta has dominated at home; Mets struggle in late‑inning matchups at Truist Park.
Recent Team Form
Mets
Offense averaging 3.8 runs over last 10
Rotation ERA last week: 4.52
Bullpen ERA: 5.11
Braves
Offense averaging 5.0 runs over last 10
Rotation ERA last week: 3.39
Bullpen ERA: 3.44
Betting Trends
Mets are 2–8 in McLean’s last 10 road starts
Braves are 9–3 in their last 12 home games
Over has hit in 6 of last 9 Braves home games
Atlanta is 11–4 in Pérez’s last 15 starts
First‑Five Braves ML has cashed in 5 of last 6 Pérez starts
Game Odds
New York Mets – 107
Atlanta Braves 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 4, 2026
