Venue: Chase Field — Phoenix, Arizona
First Pitch: 5:10 PM PT / 8:10 PM ET
Surface: Artificial Turf
Park Factor: Chase Field is hitter‑friendly, especially with the roof open; boosts HRs to left and left‑center.
WEATHER OUTLOOK — PHOENIX, AZ
(Note: Chase Field has a retractable roof; roof is often closed due to heat.)
Temperature (outside): 92–96°F
Sky: Clear
Wind: 8–12 mph (irrelevant if roof closed)
Rain: <1% chance
Roof Status: Highly likely closed
Impact:
Indoor conditions create a neutral‑to‑hitter‑friendly environment.
Ball carries well in controlled air; expect solid offensive potential.
INJURY REPORT
New York Mets (15–23)
1B Pete Alonso — Healthy
SS Francisco Lindor — Healthy
OF Brandon Nimmo — Day‑to‑Day (hamstring tightness)
SP Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder rehab)
Arizona Diamondbacks (17–20)
OF Corbin Carroll — Probable (wrist soreness)
1B Christian Walker — Healthy
3B Eugenio Suárez — Healthy
SP Zac Gallen — Healthy
Impact:
Mets missing Senga continues to strain their rotation depth.
Arizona’s lineup is near full strength if Carroll plays.
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
New York Mets (15–23)
Last 10: 3–7
Road Record: 6–12
Run Differential: -31
Trend: Offense inconsistent, rotation shaky, bullpen unreliable late.
Arizona Diamondbacks (17–20)
Last 10: 5–5
Home Record: 9–10
Run Differential: -12
Trend: Offense improving, pitching stabilizing, bullpen middle‑tier.
RECENT TEAM FORM SNAPSHOT
New York Mets
Alonso heating up with power
Lindor showing improved plate discipline
Rotation struggling to get deep into games
Mets averaging 4.0 runs per game over last 10
Bullpen ERA among worst in NL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll regaining form
Walker providing consistent power
Gallen anchoring the rotation
D‑backs averaging 4.6 runs per game over last 10
Bullpen improving but still inconsistent
SERIES HISTORY
2025 Season Series: Mets won 4–3
Last 10 Meetings: Mets lead 6–4
At Chase Field: Teams split 3–3 last season
Trend: Mets have had a slight edge recently, but Arizona is playing better baseball entering this matchup.
PROJECTED STARTING PITCHING MATCHUP
NEW YORK — SP Luis Severino (RHP)
2026 ERA: 4.71
WHIP: 1.36
Last 3 Starts: 1–2, 5.22 ERA
Strengths: High‑velo fastball, strong slider
Weaknesses: HR‑prone, command inconsistency
Matchup Note: Arizona’s left‑handed bats (Carroll, McCarthy) match up well vs. Severino.
ARIZONA — SP Zac Gallen (RHP)
2026 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.15
Last 3 Starts: 2–1, 2.89 ERA
Strengths: Elite command, swing‑and‑miss curveball
Weaknesses: Occasional early‑inning struggles
Matchup Note: Mets’ lineup struggles vs. high‑command righties — advantage Gallen.
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Zac Gallen
Alonso dangerous vs. right‑handed fastballs
Gallen’s curveball can neutralize him
Advantage: Arizona
Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Luis Severino
Carroll excels vs. high‑velo righties
Severino’s HR issues make this a dangerous matchup
Advantage: Arizona
Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. D‑backs Bullpen
Lindor thrives late in games
Arizona’s bullpen middle‑tier
Advantage: Even
BETTING TRENDS
New York Mets
3–7 in last 10
Overs hit in 6 of last 8
2–6 in last 8 road games
1–4 in last 5 vs. Arizona
Arizona Diamondbacks
5–5 in last 10
Overs hit in 5 of last 7
4–2 in last 6 home games
6–2 in last 8 vs. NL East opponents
Head‑to‑Head
Mets averaging 4.3 runs per game vs. Arizona since 2024
D‑backs averaging 4.7 runs per game
Overs hit in 7 of last 10 meetings
Game Odds
New York Mets – 120
Arizona Diamondbacks 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, May 8, 2026
