Venue: Chase Field — Phoenix, Arizona
First Pitch: 6:40 PM MST / 9:40 PM ET / 6:40 PM PT
Surface: Natural Grass (retractable roof)
Park Factor: Chase Field is a top‑10 hitter‑friendly park, especially when the roof is closed.
WEATHER OUTLOOK — PHOENIX, AZ
Note: Chase Field has a retractable roof. Forecast suggests roof likely closed due to heat.
Outdoor Temperature: 92–95°F
Humidity: 15–20%
Wind: 8–12 mph (irrelevant if roof closed)
Rain: <1% chance
Impact:
With roof closed: neutral‑to‑slightly hitter‑friendly indoor environment.
Ball carries well to left‑center.
INJURY REPORT
New York Mets
SP Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder rehab)
RP Edwin Díaz — OUT (forearm strain)
OF Brandon Nimmo — Probable (hamstring tightness)
1B Pete Alonso — Healthy
Arizona Diamondbacks
SP Merrill Kelly — OUT (elbow inflammation)
RP Kevin Ginkel — Day‑to‑Day (back tightness)
OF Corbin Carroll — Probable (wrist soreness)
2B Ketel Marte — Healthy
Impact:
Mets bullpen thin without Díaz.
D‑Backs missing Kelly hurts rotation depth.
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
New York Mets (14–23)
Last 10: 3–7
Road Record: 6–12
Run Differential: -34
Trend: Offense inconsistent, pitching struggling, bullpen overworked
Arizona Diamondbacks (17–19)
Last 10: 5–5
Home Record: 9–10
Run Differential: -11
Trend: Offense improving, pitching stabilizing, bullpen inconsistent
RECENT TEAM FORM SNAPSHOT
Mets
Alonso heating up
Lindor showing signs of life
Rotation struggling to get deep into games
Bullpen ERA bottom‑third in MLB
Diamondbacks
Carroll and Marte producing
Christian Walker providing power
Rotation competitive despite injuries
Bullpen remains volatile
SERIES HISTORY
2025 Season Series: Diamondbacks won 4–2
Last 20 Meetings: Diamondbacks lead 11–9
At Chase Field: Arizona has won 5 of last 7
Trend: Arizona has controlled the matchup recently, especially at home.
PROJECTED STARTING PITCHING MATCHUP
NEW YORK — José Quintana (LHP)
2026 ERA: 4.72
WHIP: 1.36
Last 3 Starts: 0–2, 5.40 ERA
Strengths: Veteran command, soft‑contact inducer
Weaknesses: HR‑prone, struggles vs. right‑handed power
Matchup Note: D‑Backs’ right‑handed bats (Walker, Marte, Moreno) are dangerous in this park.
ARIZONA — Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
2026 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.27
Last 3 Starts: 2–1, 3.60 ERA
Strengths: Strong K‑rate, improving command
Weaknesses: Occasional HR issues vs. lefties
Matchup Note: Mets’ lefties (Nimmo, McNeil, Vientos) are key threats.
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Alonso hitting .310 with 4 HR in last 10
Pfaadt struggles vs. elite power
Advantage: Alonso
Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. José Quintana
Carroll crushes soft‑tossing lefties
Quintana must avoid middle‑in fastballs
Advantage: Carroll
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Mets Bullpen
Marte excels vs. high‑velo relievers
Mets bullpen vulnerable
Advantage: Marte
BETTING TRENDS
Moneyline Trends
Diamondbacks are 5–2 in last 7 home games vs. Mets
Mets are 3–7 in last 10 overall
Total Runs Trends
Chase Field is a Top‑10 Over park
Both teams have inconsistent pitching
Both lineups have power potential
Over 9.0 receiving early sharp interest.
Game Odds
New York Mets – 136
Arizona Diamondbacks 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, May 7, 2026
