MLB Game Preview: Minnesota Twins (40-43) vs. Detroit Tigers (52-32)

First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET, with national coverage on ESPN and streaming via MLB.tv.

This Sunday Night Baseball showdown is the rubber match of a three-game AL Central series. The Tigers lead the season series 3–2 and are looking to extend their division lead, while the Twins aim to pull off a major upset on the road.

Team Form & Trends

Detroit Tigers (52–32, 1st in AL Central)

• Home Record: 29–14
• Recent Form: 5–5 in last 10 games
• Offensive Leaders:
  • Riley Greene: .297 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI – top-20 in MLB in both HR and RBI
  • Gleyber Torres: .285 AVG, 13 doubles, 8 HR – 5-game hit streak
  • Spencer Torkelson: 17 HR – 2-game hit streak entering Sunday
• Team Stats:

• .325 OBP – 7th in MLB
• 68.5% win rate as favorites this season
• 5–2 in last 7 games as moneyline favorites

Minnesota Twins (40–43, 3rd in AL Central)

• Road Record: 18–26
• Recent Form: 4–6 in last 10 games
• Offensive Leaders:
  • Byron Buxton: 6 HR in last 10 games – .350 AVG in that span
  • Ty France: 15 doubles, 6 HR – steady veteran presence
  • Carlos Correa: .261 AVG, 12 HR – key middle-of-the-order bat
• Team Stats:

• .243 team AVG – 16th in MLB
• 94 HR – 12th in MLB
• 42.9% win rate as underdogs this season

Probable Starting Pitchers

Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (LHP)

• Record: 9–2 ERA: 2.29 WHIP: 0.95 125 K in 102.2 IP
• Last Start: 6.0 IP, 4 ER vs Athletics
• Scouting Report: 2024 AL Cy Young winner; leads AL in FIP (2.13) and xERA (2.62)
• Home Dominance: 6–0 at Comerica Park with sub-2.00 ERA

Minnesota Twins: Chris Paddack (RHP)

• Record: 3–6 ERA: 4.64 WHIP: 1.23 60 K in 85.1 IP
• Last Start: 5.2 IP, 3 ER vs Mariners
• Scouting Report: Low strikeout rate (9.1% SwStr%) and high contact profile; 5.48 ERA on the road

Key Matchups to Watch

• Riley Greene vs Paddack: Greene owns a .984 OPS vs RHP and is slugging .419 – a dangerous matchup for Paddack
• Byron Buxton vs Skubal: Buxton is 2-for-12 with 2 HR lifetime vs Skubal – boom-or-bust potential
• Bullpen Edge: Tigers’ bullpen has a 3.71 ERA over the last 30 days; Twins’ pen has struggled with a 6.57 ERA in their last 10 games

Head-to-Head & Betting Insights

• Tigers lead season series 3–2
• Detroit is 4–0 when favored by -280 or more this season
• Twins are 2–2 in last 4 games as underdogs
• Over is 7–3 in Tigers’ last 10 games; Under is 6–4 in Twins’ last 10