Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona.
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET (6:40 p.m. MT).
Probable starters: RHP Ryan Gusto (Marlins, 1-5, 4.14 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 65 K in 78.1 IP) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks, 9-13, 4.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 102 K in 152.0 IP).
Weather Forecast
Hot and partly cloudy to mostly sunny with highs near 85–90°F during the day, cooling into the mid-to-upper 70s by first pitch. Chance of showers or thunderstorms (30–70% earlier, tapering later), with possible heavy rainfall in spots. Light winds. Chase Field’s retractable roof may be a factor if storms approach; otherwise, expect typical warm desert evening conditions.
Injury Reports
Marlins: Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL, arm/median nerve), Owen Caissie (10-day IL, lumbar stress), Max Meyer (15-day IL, neck), Anthony Bender (15-day IL), Andrew Nardi (60-day IL, ribs), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), Robby Snelling (60-day IL, elbow), and others.
Diamondbacks: Nolan Arenado (day-to-day, right thumb inflammation after leaving Tuesday’s game), Ryne Nelson (60-day IL, elbow), Tyler Locklear (60-day IL, thumb), Ryan Thompson (60-day IL, back), A.J. Puk (60-day IL, elbow), Cristian Mena (60-day IL, shoulder), and additional absences.
Current active groups feature Marlins contributors such as Otto Lopez, Esteury Ruiz, Griffin Conine, Javier Sanoja, Kyle Stowers, and Heriberto Hernández. Diamondbacks rely on Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and available depth (Arenado’s status is key).
Recent Team Forms
Marlins: 75-77 (third in NL East). Won Tuesday’s series game 4-2 in 11 innings (Ruiz’s 3-run double). Last 10: 4-6. Road: 30-44. Offense solid (.249 AVG, 156 HR). Team ERA ~4.10. Playing competitive baseball late.
Diamondbacks: 80-72 (third in NL West). Lost Tuesday after stranding 15 runners, remaining 2.5 games behind San Diego for the final NL wild-card spot. Last 10: 6-4. Home: 43-34. Still in the playoff hunt. Team ERA ~4.09 with balanced offense.
Series History
Marlins lead the 2026 season series 4-1. Current three-game set is 1-1 (or Marlins lead after Tuesday’s extra-inning win). Miami has owned the matchup this year. The rubber match decides the series.
Key Player vs. Player Matchups / Pitching Edge
Neither starter has dominated. Gusto has a slightly better ERA in limited work. Kelly has more innings but a higher ERA and home-run rate.
Key hitters: Lopez, Ruiz, Conine, and Sanoja vs. Kelly; Marte, Moreno, Carroll, and Perdomo vs. Gusto. Chase Field (roof dependent) can favor offense, especially with power from both sides. Left/right matchups and situational hitting will matter in what could be another tight contest.
Betting Trends
Diamondbacks favored at home despite the series split and wild-card pressure.
Recent series game went to extras but stayed relatively low-scoring overall.
Marlins have covered as road underdogs in this matchup and lead the season series.
Game Odds
Miami Marlins 9
Arizona Diamondbacks – 130
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026
