Venue & Game Info
- Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
- First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET / 10:40 AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field, 41 Seaver Way, Flushing, Queens, NY 11368
- Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
- Broadcast: SNY (NYM), Bally Sports Florida (MIA), MLB.TV
Weather Update
- Conditions: Outdoor venue; warm late‑summer afternoon.
- Forecast at First Pitch: Mostly sunny, ~88°F (31°C), light SW breeze 5–7 mph, humidity ~50%.
- Impact: Ideal hitting weather; warm temps could give the ball a little extra carry.
Injury Report
Miami Marlins:
- Tyler Zuber (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (lat)
- Janson Junk (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (arm)
- Anthony Bender (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (tibia)
- Graham Pauley (INF) – 10‑Day IL (oblique)
- Kyle Stowers (OF) – 10‑Day IL (oblique)
- Jesus Tinoco (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
- Max Meyer (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (hip)
- Ryan Weathers (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (lat)
- Griffin Conine (OF) – 60‑Day IL (arm)
- Andrew Nardi (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (back)
- Braxton Garrett (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
New York Mets:
- Reed Garrett (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (elbow)
- Frankie Montas (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
- Francisco Alvarez (C) – 10‑Day IL (thumb)
- Jesse Winker (OF) – 60‑Day IL (back)
- Max Kranick (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
- Dedniel Núñez (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
- Tylor Megill (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
- Griffin Canning (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (Achilles)
- Jose Siri (OF) – 60‑Day IL (shin)
- Danny Young (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
- A.J. Minter (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (lat)
- Nick Madrigal (INF) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
- Drew Smith (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
- Christian Scott (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Probable Pitchers
- MIA: RHP Sandy Alcantara (7‑11, 5.87 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 113 K)
- Former Cy Young winner enduring a rough season; struggles with HR prevention (1.3 HR/9).
- Career vs. NYM: 5‑8, 3.74 ERA in 20 starts.
- NYM: RHP Kodai Senga (7‑5, 2.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 103 K)
- “Ghost Fork” still elite; holding opponents to .215 AVG.
- Home ERA: 2.41 in 10 starts at Citi Field this year.
Recent Form
Miami Marlins – Last 5: W‑L‑W‑L‑L
- Took 2 of first 3 in this series; offense averaging 4.3 runs/game this season (19th MLB).
- Team ERA 4.57 (25th MLB); bullpen save rate 63.5%.
New York Mets – Last 5: L‑W‑L‑W‑W
- 6‑4 in last 10; hitting .326 as a team in that span.
- Mets’ OBP (.329) ranks 2nd in NL; 177 HR (8th MLB).
Series History
- 2025 Season Series: Mets lead 5‑4 entering finale.
- Mets 4‑2 in last 6 at Citi Field vs. Miami.
Key Player Matchups
- Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Sandy Alcantara
- Alonso: .271 AVG, 34 2B, 31 HR, 110 RBI; power threat to all fields.
- Alcantara: vulnerable to RHH slugging this season.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Marlins Bullpen
- Lindor: 17‑for‑45 (.378) last 10 games; 2 HR, 5 RBI in that stretch.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) vs. Kodai Senga
- Lopez: .237 AVG, 17 2B, 11 HR, 59 RBI; contact bat in middle of order.
- Jakob Marsee (MIA) vs. NYM Middle Relief
- Marsee: 14‑for‑39 (.359) last 10 games; 3 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR.
Betting Trends
Miami Marlins:
- 5‑5 in last 10 games; 3‑7 in last 10 road games.
- Over is 4‑2 in last 6.
New York Mets:
- 6‑4 in last 10; 45‑26 at home this season.
- Over is 6‑2‑2 in last 10 games.
Head‑to‑Head:
- Over is 5‑5 in last 10 meetings.
- Mets 4‑2 in last 6 at Citi Field vs. MIA.
Suggested Wagering Model
Primary Lean: Mets ‑1.5 (+120)
- Senga’s home dominance + Mets’ hot bats vs. Alcantara’s struggles create strong cover potential.
Secondary Lean: Over 8 Runs (‑116)
- Mets’ recent offensive surge + Marlins’ bullpen issues point to runs on both sides.
Prop Angle: Pete Alonso Anytime HR (+350)
- Alonso’s power vs. Alcantara’s HR vulnerability makes this a high‑value prop.
Game Odds
Miami Marlins 8
New York Mets – 181
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, August 30, 2025
