MLB Game Preview: Miami Marlins (63-72) vs. New York Mets (73-62)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 – First pitch 4:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field, 41 Seaver Way, Flushing, Queens, NY 11368
• Broadcast: MLB Network, WPIX (NY), FDSFL (Miami)

Weather Outlook (Queens, NY)

• Forecast: Mostly sunny, 74°F at first pitch
• Wind: 8–10 mph out to left field — slight boost for RH pull hitters
• Precipitation: <5% chance — no delays expected
• Impact: Mild wind could aid fly balls; otherwise neutral hitting conditions

Injury Report

New York Mets:

• Francisco Álvarez (thumb) – 10-Day IL
• Reed Garrett (elbow) – 15-Day IL
• Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, A.J. Minter, Drew Smith – 60-Day IL (various)
• Jesse Winker (back) – 60-Day IL

Miami Marlins:

• Janson Junk (arm) – 15-Day IL
• Kyle Stowers (oblique) – 10-Day IL
• Anthony Bender, Jesus Tinoco, Braxton Garrett, Andrew Nardi, Max Meyer – 60-Day IL (various)

Probable Pitching Matchup

Recent Form

New York Mets (Last 10): 6-4

• Runs/Game: 7.1
• Team BA: .320
• ERA: 4.34
• Key: 19-run franchise-record explosion vs MIA on Aug. 29; 4 players with 20+ HR

Miami Marlins (Last 10): 4-6

• Runs/Game: 3.6
• Team BA: .240
• ERA: 6.36
• Key: Inconsistent offense; bullpen allowing 32.5% inherited runners to score

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Mets lead 5-3
• All-Time: Mets 289–243 vs Marlins
• Recent: Mets took 2 of 3 in April; split first two of current 4-game set (MIA 7–4 on Aug. 28, NYM 19–9 on Aug. 29)

Player Matchups to Watch

• Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Cabrera – .318 last 5 games, 1 HR, 5 RBI; power threat vs RHP
• Juan Soto (NYM) – 33 HR, .387 OBP; patient approach could drive Cabrera’s pitch count
• Brandon Nimmo (NYM) – 2 HR in last game vs MIA; riding 4-game hit streak
• Xavier Edwards (MIA) – .285 BA, 24 SB; table-setter vs Peterson’s LHP
• Otto Lopez (MIA) – 4-hit game in series; contact bat in middle order
• Agustin Ramirez (MIA) – 18 HR; power upside but 58% K rate in games played

Betting Trends

New York Mets:

• 20-6 when favored at -189 or shorter
• Over is 6-4 in last 10 games
• 7-3 ATS last 10

Miami Marlins:

• 11-17 as +156 or longer underdog
• Over is 6-4 in last 10
• 5-5 ATS last 10

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Pitcher splits (Peterson home vs RHB-heavy lineup; Cabrera road vs LHB power)
• Recent offensive surge by Mets (9+ runs/game last 5)
• Marlins bullpen ERA (4.58 season; 6.36 last 10)
• Weather aiding fly ball carry to LF