Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
First Pitch: 7:07 PM ET / 4:07 PM PT
Probables: HOU — Hunter Brown (RHP) vs TOR — Dylan Cease (RHP)
VENUE: ROGERS CENTRE
Location: 1 Blue Jays Way, Toronto, ON
Surface: Artificial turf
Roof: Retractable — expected to be closed due to rain threat
Park Factors:
Boosts HRs to left and left‑center
Plays neutral with roof closed
Fast turf increases ground‑ball singles
WEATHER FORECAST (OUTSIDE THE ROOF)
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 10–14 mph from the southwest
Humidity: 71%
Chance of Rain: 40%
Impact: None — roof expected closed
INJURY REPORT
Houston Astros
Kyle Tucker — OUT (shin fracture)
Yordan Álvarez — ACTIVE (quad tightness, expected to play)
Jeremy Peña — ACTIVE (wrist soreness, probable)
Justin Verlander — OUT (shoulder)
Ryan Pressly — OUT (elbow inflammation)
Toronto Blue Jays
Bo Bichette — OUT (knee sprain)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — ACTIVE (back stiffness, expected to start)
Kevin Gausman — OUT (forearm strain)
Jordan Romano — OUT (elbow)
Daulton Varsho — ACTIVE (hamstring tightness, day‑to‑day)
STARTING PITCHING MATCHUP
Hunter Brown — RHP, Astros
2026 Season:
Record: 5–6
ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 1.32
K/BB: 84/29
Last 5 Starts: 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Scouting Notes:
Power fastball/curveball combo
Jays rank bottom‑10 vs high‑spin breaking balls
Road ERA (4.92) worse than home
Vulnerable to right‑handed power — Guerrero/Varsho match up well
Matchup Edge: Slight disadvantage
Dylan Cease — RHP, Blue Jays
2026 Season:
Record: 7–5
ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.17
K/BB: 102/28
Last 5 Starts: 2.91 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Scouting Notes:
Elite slider (40% whiff rate)
Astros rank middle‑of‑the‑pack vs RHP, but struggle vs elite sliders
Cease thrives indoors — 2.78 ERA in domes
Houston missing Tucker reduces left‑handed threats
Matchup Edge: Strong
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
Houston Astros (37–42)
Last 10: 4–6
Road Record: 16–23
Run Differential: –21
Trend: Pitching improving, offense inconsistent
Strength: Top‑tier contact hitting
Weakness: Missing power bats, bullpen instability
Toronto Blue Jays (38–39)
Last 10: 6–4
Home Record: 20–18
Run Differential: –3
Trend: Pitching stabilizing, offense streaky
Strength: Guerrero carrying lineup, Cease anchoring rotation
Weakness: Middle‑infield depth without Bichette
SERIES HISTORY
2024–2026 Combined: Astros lead 10–7
At Rogers Centre: Astros have won 4 of last 6
Brown vs Blue Jays: 3.60 ERA in 3 career starts
Cease vs Astros: 3.12 ERA in 7 career starts
BETTING TRENDS
Houston
3–7 in last 10 road games
Under is 6–3 in last 9
1–4 in Brown’s last 5 road starts
Toronto
7–3 in last 10 home games
Under is 5–2 in last 7 at Rogers Centre
Cease starts: Jays are 8–4
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 5 of last 7
Astros have covered RL in 4 of last 6 meetings
Game Odds
Houston Astros 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 120
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, June 21, 2026
