Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (45–42) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (51–36)
Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
Time: 1:05 PM ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds in a pivotal National League showdown to kick off a three-game series on Independence Day. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, with the Phillies leading the NL East and the Reds battling in the crowded NL Central.
This matchup features two intriguing left-handed starters: Jesús Luzardo for Philadelphia and Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati. The Phillies are slight favorites, but the Reds have won 6 of their last 10 and are swinging the bats well.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Andrew Abbott (CIN)
- Record: 7–1
- ERA: 1.79
- WHIP: 1.02
- Strikeouts: 76 in 75.1 IP
- Last 4 Starts: 1 ER or fewer in each
- xFIP: 4.08 (suggests regression is possible)
Abbott has been dominant on paper, but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been outperforming expectations. He’ll face a Phillies lineup that ranks top 10 in runs and slugging.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
- Record: 7–4
- ERA: 4.06
- WHIP: 1.41
- Strikeouts: 111 in 97.2 IP
- xFIP: 3.24 (better than ERA)
Luzardo has been inconsistent but flashes elite strikeout upside. He’ll look to neutralize a Reds lineup that’s been hot, led by Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer.
Key Hitters to Watch
Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: .294 AVG, 18 HR, 58 RBI, .501 SLG
- Leads the team in HR and RBI; 5 multi-hit games in last 9
- Spencer Steer: .252 AVG, 10 HR, 13 2B
- 16-for-38 over last 10 games with 4 HR and 10 RBI
- TJ Friedl: .281 AVG, .339 OBP
- Table-setter with speed and contact skills
Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 26 HR, 58 RBI, .912 OPS
- 4th in MLB in home runs; elite barrel rate
- Trea Turner: .297 AVG, 11 HR, 39 RBI
- 3-game hitting streak; .426 SLG
- Nick Castellanos: .279 AVG, 10 HR, 22 2B
- 16 of last 25 games with 2+ total bases
Team Stats & Trends
| Stat Category | Reds | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Batting Avg | .247 (7th in NL) | .260 (4th in NL) |
| Runs Per Game (L10) | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Team ERA (L10) | 4.10 | 1.99 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.32 (27th in MLB) | 3.89 (12th in MLB) |
| Last 10 Games | 6–4 | 5–5 |
The Phillies’ bullpen and home-field advantage give them a slight edge, but Abbott’s form and the Reds’ recent offensive surge make this a close call.
Betting Trends
- Phillies are 26–8 when favored at -160 or shorter
- Reds are 21–12 ATS as road underdogs
- Over is 4–2 in Reds’ last 6 games
- Phillies have hit the 1st 5 Innings ML in 45 of their last 84 games (+14.1 units ROI)
Game Odds
Cincinnati Reds 8
Philadelphia Phillies – 164
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 3, 2025
