Probables: CIN RHP Chase Burns (R) vs. NYY LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (6–4, 3.66 ERA)
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET (10:35 AM PT)
Television: Bally Sports Ohio, YES Network, MLB.TV
Venue & Weather
Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York
- Expected Conditions: 83°F, partly sunny
- Wind: 12–15 mph out to right field
- Humidity: ~55%
- Chance of Rain: <10%
- Impact:
- Significant boost to left-handed pull hitters
- Short porch in right becomes even more dangerous
- Run environment projected: +12–15% above average
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
- Matt McLain (shoulder) — Out, major lineup loss
- TJ Friedl (hamstring) — Day-to-day, likely bench role
- Nick Lodolo (back) — Out, no impact today
- Alexis Díaz (fatigue) — Available but monitored, bullpen usage uncertain
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge (rest day Saturday) — Expected to start
- Anthony Rizzo (back) — Out, lineup depth reduced
- Gleyber Torres (quad) — Day-to-day, trending toward playing
- Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) — Out, bullpen depth affected
Team Records & Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds (36–39)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Road Record: 17–22
- Run Differential: –18
- Strengths: young rotation upside, improved plate discipline
- Weaknesses: inconsistent offense, bullpen volatility
New York Yankees (47–28)
- Last 10: 7–3
- Home Record: 26–12
- Run Differential: +63
- Strengths: elite top-of-lineup production, strong home-field advantage
- Weaknesses: middle relief instability, occasional strikeout-heavy games
Series History
- 2022–2026 Combined: Yankees lead 6–3
- At Yankee Stadium: Yankees lead 4–1
- Average scoring in Bronx meetings: 9.4 runs/game
- Yankees have won 3 straight vs. CIN
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
CINCINNATI — RHP Chase Burns
(Rookie season; analysis based on MLB sample + scouting profile) Profile:
- Fastball: 97–100 mph
- Slider: 86–89 mph (wipeout)
- Cutter: 91–93 mph
- Changeup: 88 mph (developing)
Strengths:
- High strikeout upside
- Elite velocity plays well up in zone
- Generates whiffs vs. right-handed hitters
Weaknesses:
- Command inconsistency
- Vulnerable to left-handed power
- Yankee Stadium + wind out to RF is a dangerous combo
- High pitch counts limit length
Yankees vs. Burns:
- First career matchup
- Judge, Soto, and Verdugo profile extremely well vs. high-velo righties
NEW YORK — LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
2026 Stats: 6–4, 3.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 74 K in 76 IP Pitch Mix:
- 4-seam: 92–94 mph
- Cutter: 88–90 mph
- Changeup: 84–86 mph
- Slider: 82–84 mph
Strengths:
- Excellent command
- Changeup neutralizes right-handed power
- Strong home splits (3.21 ERA at Yankee Stadium)
Weaknesses:
- Occasional HR issues vs. aggressive righties
- Reds have several RH bats who hit lefties well (Steer, India, Encarnacion-Strand)
Reds vs. Rodriguez:
- India: 3-for-10, 2B
- Steer: 2-for-6, HR
- Benson: 1-for-4
Key Player Matchups
Juan Soto (NYY) vs. Burns
- Soto hitting .318 with .590 SLG vs RHP in 2026
- Burns’ fastball/slider combo plays into Soto’s elite plate discipline
- Edge: Soto
Spencer Steer (CIN) vs. Rodriguez
- Steer hitting .301 vs LHP
- ERod’s cutter must stay inside to avoid damage
- Edge: Steer
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Burns
- Judge hitting .284 with 17 HR at home
- Burns’ high fastball is a risk vs. Judge’s upper-zone power
- Edge: Judge
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Rodriguez
- ELDC’s chase rate vs. ERod’s changeup is a concern
- But speed creates chaos if he reaches
- Edge: Rodriguez
Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds
- 3–8 in last 11 road games
- 2–6 in last 8 vs. AL East
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 Burns starts
- 1–5 in last 6 Sunday games
New York Yankees
- 9–3 in last 12 home games
- 6–1 in last 7 vs. sub-.500 teams
- Over is 5–1 in last 6 at Yankee Stadium
- 7–2 in last 9 Rodriguez home starts
Head-to-Head
- Yankees 6–3 last 9
- Over is 4–1 last 5 in Bronx
Game Odds
Cincinnati Reds 8.5
New York Yankees – 108
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, June 20, 2026
