First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York
Probable Pitchers: RHP Corbin Burns (CIN) vs. TBD RHP (NYM)
Venue Profile — Citi Field
- Location: Flushing Meadows, Queens
- Dimensions: LF 335 ft, CF 408 ft, RF 330 ft
- Park Factor: Slightly pitcher-friendly, especially at night
- Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
- Notes:
- Deep right-center alley suppresses HRs.
- Wind patterns often swirl, affecting fly-ball carry.
Weather Forecast
- Temperature: 68–71°F at first pitch
- Wind: 9–12 mph blowing in from right-center
- Humidity: 60%
- Precipitation: <10%
- Impact:
- Home run suppression, especially to RF.
- Favors elite command pitchers like Burns.
- Run environment leans under unless bullpens collapse.
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
- Matt McLain — 60‑day IL (shoulder)
- TJ Friedl — 10‑day IL (hamstring)
- Nick Lodolo — Day-to-day (back)
- Alexis Díaz — 15‑day IL (forearm)
New York Mets
- Francisco Lindor — Day-to-day (ankle)
- Pete Alonso — 10‑day IL (wrist)
- Kodai Senga — 60‑day IL (shoulder)
- Brooks Raley — 15‑day IL (elbow)
Team Records & Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds (28–25)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Road Record: 13–13
- Run Differential: +12
- Trend: Burns stabilizing rotation; offense streaky but dangerous.
New York Mets (22–32)
- Last 10: 3–7
- Home Record: 11–16
- Run Differential: –45
- Trend: Injuries + inconsistent pitching = prolonged slump.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
CIN — RHP Corbin Burns
- 2026 Stats: 3.21 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | 10.2 K/9
- Profile:
- Cutter remains elite; generates weak contact.
- Curveball usage up; swing-and-miss pitch vs. LHB.
- Excellent road numbers (career trend).
- Matchup Notes:
- Mets missing Alonso + Lindor limited = huge advantage.
- Citi Field + wind in = perfect environment for Burns’ fly-ball tendencies.
NYM — TBD RHP (Assumed League-Average Profile)
- Projected Profile:
- 4.20–4.60 ERA range
- Fastball/slider mix
- Vulnerable to LHB power
- Matchup Notes:
- Reds’ left-handed bats (Steer, Benson, Fraley) match up well.
- Cincinnati ranks top‑10 in MLB in hard-hit rate vs. RHP sliders.
Key Player Matchups
Reds Hitters vs. Mets Pitching
- Elly De La Cruz: Speed + power; Citi Field’s gaps suit him.
- Spencer Steer: Excellent vs. RHP; doubles machine.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand: HR threat even with wind in.
Mets Hitters vs. Burns
- Brandon Nimmo: Best matchup; patient LHB who handles cutters.
- Jeff McNeil: Contact bat but limited power vs. Burns’ movement.
- Starling Marte: Struggles vs. elite spin; tough matchup.
Series History
- 2025 Season: Mets won 4–3.
- 2026 Season (so far): First meeting.
- At Citi Field (last 3 years): Mets 8–6.
- Trend: Historically competitive, but current Mets roster is depleted.
Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds
- 6–1 in last 7 Burns starts
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 road games
- Reds 8–3 in last 11 vs. losing teams
New York Mets
- 2–8 in last 10 overall
- Under is 6–2 in last 8 home games
- Mets 1–7 in last 8 vs. teams above .500
Head-to-Head
- Under is 5–2 in last 7 meetings
- Road team is 4–1 in last 5
Game Odds
Cincinnati Reds – 118
New York Mets 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 25, 2026
