First pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio (100 Joe Nuxhall Way)
This is Game 11 of the season series (Cubs lead 7-3) and the opener of a three-game set. The Cubs sit second in the NL Central (10 games behind the Brewers) and hold a Wild Card position; the Reds are fifth (24 GB) and essentially playing out the string.
Starting Pitchers
Cubs: RHP Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 71 K in 91.2 IP). Solid control and ground-ball lean; limited deep outings this year.
Reds: RHP Chase Burns (15-3, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 181 K in 151.1 IP). Elite strikeout rate (~10.8 K/9); recently on a workload limit with shortened outings (often piggybacked, e.g., by Brandon Williamson).
Both post nearly identical ERA/WHIP marks, but Burns has far more volume and swing-and-miss ability. Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly venue (elevated run/HR factors), though wind forecasts lean somewhat against long balls.
Projected/Current Rosters & Lineups
Cubs (key everyday pieces):
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF), Seiya Suzuki (RF), Michael Busch (1B), Alex Bregman (3B), Ian Happ (LF), Nico Hoerner (2B/SS), Michael Conforto (DH), Carson Kelly (C), with Dansby Swanson (SS) expected back from IL and options like Pedro Ramírez/Gabriel Arias in the middle infield. Depth includes Matt Shaw and others.
Typical projected order leans: Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, Busch, Bregman, Happ, Hoerner, Conforto, (Swanson or Ramírez), Kelly.
Reds (key everyday pieces):
Elly De La Cruz (SS), Sal Stewart (1B), JJ Bleday (OF), Tyler Stephenson (C; day-to-day leg), Eugenio Suárez (3B/DH), Matt McLain (2B), Héctor Rodríguez (OF), TJ Friedl/Dane Myers/Carlos Jorge (OF/CF), Ke’Bryan Hayes or Juan Brito (3B/INF).
Projected orders vary but commonly feature De La Cruz and Stewart high, with Bleday, Stephenson, Suárez, McLain, and outfield mix.
Injury Reports
Cubs:
Dansby Swanson (SS, 10-day IL, side/oblique) – expected activation for this series.
Gavin Hollowell (RP, 15-day IL), Justin Steele (SP, 60-day IL), Phil Maton (RP, 60-day IL), Hunter Harvey (RP, 60-day IL), Cade Horton (SP, 60-day IL forearm), Ben Brown (RP, 60-day IL neck), Riley Martin (RP, 60-day IL), others (Shelby Miller, Porter Hodge, etc.) shut down or longer-term.
Reds:
Spencer Steer (1B, 10-day IL, wrist) – out until at least ~Sept. 22.
Michael Toglia (1B, 60-day IL, shoulder), Blake Dunn (CF, 60-day IL, elbow), Hunter Greene (SP, 60-day IL, elbow – longer-term).
Tyler Stephenson day-to-day (leg).
Weather Forecast (Great American Ball Park, first pitch ~6:40 p.m. ET)
Around 78–81°F at first pitch, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy, low precipitation chance (roughly 0–10% during the game window after any earlier daytime risk; some forecasts note isolated earlier showers). Winds ~5–10 mph from the NE (often blowing in from center, slightly suppressing HRs). Humidity moderate-to-high; overall favorable for play with minimal delay risk.
Recent Team Forms
Cubs: 4-6 in last 10 (.245 BA, 4.55 ERA overall in that span); road record 40-35. Coming off mixed results vs. Atlanta/Pittsburgh (recent W 8-4 vs. ATL). Four-game road losing streak noted in some previews entering the series. Strong when recording 8+ hits (68-20).
Reds: 2-8 in last 10 (.212 BA, 7.73 ERA, outscored by ~49 runs); home 37-41. Just dropped a series to the Dodgers (L 8-2 most recently). Strong in one-run games (25-15).
Cubs hold a clear edge in overall offense (817 R, .252 AVG, 211 HR vs. Reds’ 633 R, .230 AVG, 203 HR) and pitching staff ERA (4.19 vs. 4.87).
Series History
Cubs lead the 2026 season series 7-3. Recent meetings include high-scoring affairs (e.g., Cubs 17-5, Reds 10-8 and 7-5 wins in late August). Full recent results include May and July series wins for Chicago mixed with Reds home successes.
Key Player vs. Player Matchups / Notes
Crow-Armstrong (44 HR, .581 SLG, team leader) vs. Burns – power threat in a park that boosts HRs; Crow-Armstrong has been hot.
Bregman (hot recently: multi-hit power outings) and Happ (career success at GABP, strong OPS historically there) vs. Burns.
De La Cruz (hot: multi-HR stretch in last 10) and Stewart (32 HR, 108+ RBI) vs. Holmes – speed/power combo against a ground-ball pitcher.
Burns’ K rate vs. Cubs’ strikeout-prone bats; Holmes’ ability to induce contact vs. Reds’ lower average.
Bullpen contrast: Reds’ recent high ERA and bullpen concerns (workload on Burns means earlier exit possible) vs. Cubs’ depth (despite IL absences).
Betting Trends
Cubs favored on road against a struggling Reds club; public money often heavy on favorites. Reds competitive in one-run games and at home vs. certain styles. Over/under has seen mixed recent results for both; park factors lean slightly over but starter quality and potential wind support under.
GAME ODDS
Chicago Cubs – 125
Cincinnati Reds 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, September 17, 2026
