Scheduled First Pitch: 7:15 PM CT
Venue Type: Neutral‑leaning park; suppresses HRs to CF but boosts doubles in gaps.
WEATHER / PARK CONDITIONS
St. Louis Forecast:
Temp: 89°F
Humidity: 57%
Wind: S 9 mph (blowing out toward LF)
Precipitation: 15%
Conditions: Hot, partly cloudy
Weather slightly favors right‑handed pull hitters; warm air increases carry.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Chicago — RHP Hayden Peterson
2026 Season: 8–5, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Four‑seam / slider / changeup mix
Cardinals struggle vs. high‑spin sliders
Road ERA: 3.71
Key strength: elite command, low walk rate
Key vulnerability: occasional HR susceptibility vs. left‑handed power
St. Louis — TBD (Likely RHP Gordon Schultz or bullpen game)
If Schultz starts: 2026 Season: 3–3, 4.41 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Sinker/slider profile
Cubs crush sinkers (team SLG .482 vs. sinkers)
Home ERA: 4.12
Key strength: induces ground balls
Key vulnerability: left‑handed power (Bellinger, Busch)
If bullpen game:
Cardinals bullpen ERA last 10 games: 4.66
Depth issues after recent injuries
Vulnerable to Cubs’ patient lineup
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Chicago Cubs — Last 10 Games: 7–3
Offense averaging 5.3 runs/game
Bullpen strong (3.22 ERA last 10)
Road record: 27–24
Strength: elite plate discipline, strong middle‑order power
Weakness: occasional swing‑and‑miss issues vs. elite sliders
St. Louis Cardinals — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Offense averaging 4.4 runs/game
Bullpen inconsistent (4.71 ERA last 10)
Home record: 29–25
Strength: strong contact hitters (Arenado, Goldschmidt, Winn)
Weakness: lack of consistent power; struggles vs. high‑command RHP
INJURY REPORT
Chicago Cubs
OF Seiya Suzuki — Day‑to‑Day (hamstring)
RP Adbert Alzolay — 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
SP Justin Steele — IL (forearm)
C Miguel Amaya — Active
St. Louis Cardinals
OF Lars Nootbaar — Day‑to‑Day (wrist)
RP Ryan Helsley — 15‑Day IL (lat)
SP Sonny Gray — IL (elbow)
C Willson Contreras — Active but managing knee soreness
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Hayden Peterson vs. Nolan Arenado
Arenado vs. sliders: .241 AVG, .411 SLG
Peterson’s slider is his best pitch Edge: Peterson
Hayden Peterson vs. Masyn Winn
Winn excels vs. fastballs but struggles vs. changeups
Peterson’s changeup is a strong weapon Edge: Peterson
Cardinals TBD vs. Cody Bellinger
Bellinger vs. sinkers: .302 AVG, .544 SLG
Cardinals’ likely starter relies heavily on sinkers Edge: Bellinger
Cardinals TBD vs. Michael Busch
Busch crushes sliders (.288 AVG, .560 SLG)
Cardinals’ bullpen slider usage is high Edge: Busch
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Cubs lead 4–2
Last 20 meetings: Chicago 12–8
At Busch Stadium (last 3 seasons): Chicago 15–11
Cubs have dominated Cardinals in games started by command‑first RHP
BETTING TRENDS
Chicago
Cubs are 9–3 in Peterson’s last 12 starts
Over is 8–4 in Cubs’ last 12 road games
Cubs are 7–2 in their last 9 games vs. St. Louis
St. Louis
Cardinals are 4–7 in games started by Schultz
Under is 10–5 in Cardinals’ last 15 home games
Cardinals are 3–6 in their last 9 games vs. teams above .500
Head‑to‑Head
Cubs have covered RL in 6 of last 8
Over has hit in 7 of last 10
Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 5 straight games vs. STL
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Peterson: 2.5 WAR
Cardinals TBD: N/A (likely Schultz: 1.1 WAR)
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Chicago: .756
St. Louis: .714
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Chicago: 3.41
St. Louis: 4.68
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Chicago: 5.0–5.7 runs
St. Louis: 4.1–4.7 runs
Game Odds
Chicago Cubs – 117
St. Louis Cardinals 9.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 26, 2026
