Venue: Great American Ball Park
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET / 10:40 AM PT
Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network / Bally Sports Ohio / MLB.TV
Weather Update — Cincinnati, OH
Temperature: 87–91°F at first pitch
Humidity: 60–70%
Wind: 8–12 mph (blowing out to right‑center)
Rain Chance: 15%
Impact:
Hot, humid conditions → ball carries extremely well
Boost for left‑handed power hitters
Great American Ball Park already plays hitter‑friendly; expect elevated HR potential
Team Records & Standings
Chicago Cubs — 53–42 (2nd in NL Central)
Strong rotation depth
Offense improving after slow start
Road record: 26–22
Cincinnati Reds — 43–51 (4th in NL Central)
Young roster with high variance
Offense streaky; pitching inconsistent
Home record: 22–25
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki — Probable (wrist)
Dansby Swanson — Out (hamstring)
Justin Steele — Out (shoulder)
Mike Tauchman — Questionable (illness)
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz — Probable (ankle)
Hunter Greene — Out (forearm)
Nick Lodolo — Out (back)
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand — Questionable (back)
Impact:
Cubs missing Swanson reduces defensive stability and right‑handed contact.
Reds missing Greene and Lodolo weakens rotation depth significantly.
Pitching Matchup — Matt Boyd (CHC) vs. Andrew Abbott (CIN)
Chicago Cubs — Matt Boyd (LHP)
Record: 4–6 ERA: 4.58 WHIP: 1.33 K/BB: Solid strikeout ability Pitch Mix: Four‑seam, slider, changeup, curveball Scouting Notes:
Slider is his best swing‑and‑miss pitch
Can struggle vs. right‑handed power
Great American Ball Park is dangerous for fly‑ball pitchers
Must keep the ball down to avoid HR damage
Cincinnati Reds — Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Record: 7–7 ERA: 3.94 WHIP: 1.25 K/BB: Good command profile Pitch Mix: Four‑seam, curveball, changeup, cutter Scouting Notes:
Curveball generates soft contact
Cubs’ lineup struggles at times vs. left‑handed pitching
Home park inflates HR risk
Must avoid middle‑middle fastballs vs. Cubs’ power bats
Recent Team Form
Chicago Cubs — Last 10 Games
6–4
Offense averaging 4.8 runs per game
Bullpen ERA: 3.38
Trending upward; strong late‑inning performance
Cincinnati Reds — Last 10 Games
4–6
Offense averaging 4.3 runs per game
Rotation ERA: 4.52
Competitive but inconsistent
Series History
All‑Time: Cubs lead 1,150–1,040
Last 10 Meetings: Cubs lead 6–4
2026 Season Series: Cubs lead 2–1
At Great American Ball Park: Cubs have won 4 of last 6
Key Note: Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 7 of their last 10 games vs. Cincinnati.
Key Player Matchups
Cody Bellinger (CHC) vs. Andrew Abbott (CIN)
Bellinger: .276 AVG, 18 HR
Abbott’s curveball can neutralize left‑handed hitters Edge: Slight to Bellinger
Christopher Morel (CHC) vs. Reds Bullpen
Morel: .248 AVG, 20 HR
Reds bullpen ranks bottom‑third in HR allowed Edge: Morel
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Matt Boyd (CHC)
De La Cruz: .262 AVG, 16 HR, elite speed
Boyd struggles vs. right‑handed power Edge: De La Cruz
Jonathan India (CIN) vs. Cubs Pitching
India: .271 AVG, 12 HR
Cubs pitching struggles at times vs. disciplined right‑handed hitters Edge: India
Statistical Comparison (2026 Season)
| Category | Cubs | Reds |
| Runs per Game | 4.76 | 4.32 |
| Team ERA | 3.89 | 4.41 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.45 | 4.18 |
| OPS | .742 | .709 |
| Home Runs | 115 | 103 |
| Defensive Runs Saved | +8 | +4 |
Key Insight: Cubs hold advantages in offense, pitching depth, and bullpen reliability.
Betting Trends
Chicago Cubs
7–3 in last 10 road games
6–2 in last 8 vs. NL Central
Overs hit in 5 of last 7 Boyd starts
Cubs 5–1 in last six Sunday games
Cincinnati Reds
4–6 in last 10 home games
3–7 in last 10 vs. teams above .500
Overs hit in 6 of last 9 Abbott starts
Reds 2–5 in last seven day games
Head‑to‑Head Trends
Cubs have covered run line in 6 of last 9
Cubs average 5.0 runs per game vs. CIN since 2022
Reds have scored 3 or fewer in 6 of last 10 vs. CHC
Game Odds
Chicago Cubs – 125
Cincinnati Reds 9.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 11, 2026
