Venue and first pitch: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET.
TV: SNET (Canada) and NESN (U.S.); streaming options include Fubo and others. This is the finale of a four-game series.
Weather forecast: Outside conditions in Toronto are expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with highs around 79–81°F (≈27°C), light northwest winds (around 5–10 mph), low precipitation chances (roughly 10% or less during the afternoon), and comfortable humidity. Overnight lows in the mid-60s°F. Rogers Centre has a retractable roof; weather is not expected to be a factor as the game will be played under the dome if needed (or with roof open under favorable conditions). Light breeze possible if open.
Probable starters:
- Red Sox: LHP Payton Tolle (7-6, 3.20 ERA, ≈1.10 WHIP, 124 K in 107 IP). Strong recent form includes a standout 6 IP, 1 ER, 14 K outing vs. Athletics. Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-2, 5.91 ERA in limited sample (three appearances, two starts this season). Solid road numbers.
- Blue Jays: RHP Max Scherzer (1-4, 7.25 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 27 K in 36 IP). Veteran (age 42) has struggled overall this year with elevated HR rate (11) but showed improvement in recent outings (e.g., better results in last few starts after returning healthier). Career vs. Red Sox: 5-7, 5.77 ERA in 14 starts.
Current key roster notes / top performers:
Red Sox feature Willson Contreras (power leader, ~23–24 HR, strong RBI production), Ceddanne Rafaela (high AVG around .287), Wilyer Abreu (solid all-around, power/speed), Jarren Duran, Adley Rutschman (recently reinstated from IL), Caleb Durbin, and others. Team AVG ≈.248, strong road record (35-25), solid overall pitching (team ERA ≈3.51).
Blue Jays rely on Kazuma Okamoto (≈24 HR, 70+ RBI), Ernie Clement (high AVG ≈.281), Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Andrés Giménez, Alejandro Kirk, Myles Straw. Team AVG ≈.243, more balanced home/away. Both clubs sit in the AL East (Red Sox 3rd, Blue Jays 4th/5th depending on exact standings) and are in the broader wild-card conversation, with Toronto recently gaining ground.
Injury reports (latest available):
Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock (RP, day-to-day, elbow inflammation); Curtis Mead (10-day IL, hand/wrist); multiple 60-day IL: Trevor Story (abdomen), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (forearm), Roman Anthony (wrist/finger), Garrett Crochet (shoulder/lat), Tanner Houck, Zack Kelly, Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Triston Casas (various elbow/shoulder/knee/wrist issues). Adley Rutschman recently activated from wrist IL.
Blue Jays: Luis Urías (10-day IL, quadriceps); Jonatan Clase (10-day IL, foot); Spencer Arrighetti, Jameson Taillon, Trey Yesavage (15-day IL, foot/forearm/knee); extensive 60-day IL list including José Berríos, Yimi García, Bowden Francis, Jake Bloss, Addison Barger, Anthony Santander, Patrick Corbin, Joe Mantiply, Cody Ponce, Lenyn Sosa (mostly elbows, shoulders, knees, wrists).
Key player vs. player / matchup notes:
Tolle’s strong strikeout ability and recent dominance (including high-velocity outings) give Boston a clear starter edge against a Scherzer who has been hittable and HR-prone this season, though the veteran has shown flashes of form lately. Limited head-to-head samples: some Blue Jays (e.g., Giménez has success vs. Tolle in small sample; Okamoto, Guerrero Jr., Springer have mixed or limited looks). Red Sox hitters vs. Scherzer include solid marks for some (e.g., Yoshida historically, Rafaela, Contreras mixed). Boston’s lefty starter vs. Toronto’s mix of right-handed power and contact bats will be pivotal. Recent series has featured timely hitting and bullpen/error involvement.
Recent team forms:
Red Sox: 5-5 last 10 but on a five-game losing streak (including three straight losses in this series: 2-1, 5-3, 6-4). Stronger earlier in the summer; road success overall but currently searching for answers. Outscored opponents in broader recent samples in some metrics.
Blue Jays: 7-3 last 10, winners of three straight (sweeping the first three of this series) and 11 of 16 in a recent stretch. Momentum in the wild-card race; solid home play in the series. Both teams average around 4–4.4 runs per game season-long, with Boston allowing fewer.
Series history: Blue Jays lead the 2026 season series significantly (9-3 entering the finale, or similar after taking the first three of this set). They have dominated recent meetings, including this series sweep threat. Broader historical rivalry is competitive as AL East foes, but Toronto has the clear upper hand this year. This is the final regular-season meeting of 2026 between the clubs. baseball-reference.com +1
GAME ODDS
Boston Red Sox – 141
Toronto Blue Jays 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, August 12, 2026
