First Pitch: 7:10 PM CT / 8:10 PM ET
Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, Illinois
Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
Park Factor: Slightly hitter‑friendly for right‑handed power
Weather Report — Chicago, IL
Early July in Chicago is warm and occasionally windy.
Temperature: 82–86°F at first pitch
Humidity: 55–65%
Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out to left‑center
Conditions: Clear skies
Impact:
Boost to right‑handed pull power
Warm air increases carry
Slight lean toward Over, unless pitching dominates
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
One middle‑relief arm on IL
A bench infielder day‑to‑day
Core lineup intact
Chicago White Sox
One starting outfielder day‑to‑day
Bullpen missing a setup arm
Everyday lineup mostly healthy
Both teams enter relatively healthy for midseason.
Team Records & Statistical Profile
Boston Red Sox (40–48)
Last 10: 4–6
Road Record: 18–26
Runs/Game: 4.32
Team ERA: 4.61
Trend: Inconsistent offense, pitching unreliable
Season Arc: Trying to climb back toward .500
Chicago White Sox (47–42)
Last 10: 6–4
Home Record: 25–18
Runs/Game: 4.66
Team ERA: 4.12
Trend: Surging; pitching stabilizing
Season Arc: Wild Card contender, strong at home
Probable Pitchers
BOS — LHP Tolle
Record: 3–6
ERA: 4.58
WHIP: 1.34
Profile:
Fastball/slider/changeup mix
Generates weak contact when ahead in counts
Struggles vs right‑handed power
Matchup Concern: White Sox right‑handed core (Robert Jr., Vaughn, Burger) matches well vs his pitch mix.
CHW — RHP Schultz
Record: 7–4
ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.18
Profile:
Strong command, above‑average strikeout rate
Excellent at home
Neutralizes left‑handed bats
Matchup Edge: Boston’s lineup is left‑leaning, giving Schultz a favorable matchup.
Key Player Matchups
Red Sox Offense vs Schultz
Rafael Devers: .275, 18 HR — elite vs RHP, but Schultz handles lefties well
Tyler O’Neill: .245, 14 HR — right‑handed power threat
Jarren Duran: Speed threat but struggles vs high‑command RHP
Edge: Schultz — matchup leans toward Chicago.
White Sox Offense vs Tolle
Luis Robert Jr.: .280, 20 HR — destroys left‑handed pitching
Andrew Vaughn: .265, 15 HR — strong vs fastball/slider LHP
Jake Burger: .250, 17 HR — excellent vs elevated fastballs
Edge: White Sox — major mismatch.
Series History
White Sox lead recent meetings
Chicago has won 6 of last 8 vs Boston
At Guaranteed Rate Field: CHW has won 5 straight
Red Sox pitching has allowed 5+ runs in 7 of last 10 vs CHW
This matchup has leaned Chicago for two straight seasons.
Betting Trends
Boston Red Sox
4–6 last 10
3–7 last 10 road games
Overs hit in 6 of last 9
Underdog in most road games
Chicago White Sox
6–4 last 10
5–2 last 7 home games
Unders hit in 7 of last 10 (pitching surge)
Favorites in most home games
Head‑to‑Head
White Sox have covered run line in 4 of last 6
Boston struggles vs right‑handed starters
Game Odds
Boston Red Sox – 117
Chicago White Sox 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 6, 2026
