Venue: Fenway Park — Boston, Massachusetts
Scheduled First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. EDT
Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Kyle Bradish (6–9, 3.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106 K)
BOS: Ranger Suárez (0–0) — recently activated but listed on IL; Boston may adjust.
Gametime Weather: 72°F in Boston (roofless stadium; weather impacts ball flight)
Team Form & Statistical Profile
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 49–52 (4th AL East)
Road Record: 21–27
Runs/Game: 4.6 (11th MLB)
Team AVG: .237; OBP: .321; SLG: .396
Season HR: 119 HRs
Pitching: 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 792 K, 109 HR allowed
Last 10 Games: 7–3, .236 AVG, 3.07 ERA, +14 run differential
Boston Red Sox
Record: 51–48 (3rd AL East)
Home Record: 22–27
Runs/Game: Boston is 33–19 when recording 8+ hits (strong correlation to run scoring).
Pitching: 1.88 ERA over last 10 games (dominant stretch).
Last 10 Games: 10–0, .247 AVG, +34 run differential (hottest team in MLB).
Series History & Head‑to‑Head
Season Series: Boston leads 4–3 entering July 21 matchup.
Context: Boston is on a 14‑game winning streak, while Baltimore recently swept Houston and has won 7 straight before losing July 20.
Fenway Park Factor: Hitter‑friendly dimensions; doubles off the Green Monster frequently influence scoring.
Injury Reports
Red Sox Injuries
Marcelo Mayer (forearm), Trevor Story (abdomen), Roman Anthony (wrist), Connelly Early (elbow), Isiah Kiner‑Falefa (forearm), Johan Oviedo (elbow), Triston Casas (knee), Ranger Suárez (groin), Kutter Crawford (wrist), Garrett Crochet (shoulder), Tanner Houck (elbow)
Orioles Injuries
Adley Rutschman (wrist), Samuel Basallo (shoulder), Colin Selby (shoulder), Ryan Helsley (elbow), Chris Bassitt (back), Zach Eflin (elbow), Blaze Alexander (hand), Keegan Akin (elbow), Ryan Mountcastle (foot), Felix Bautista (shoulder), Jordan Westburg (UCL)
Baltimore’s injuries heavily impact their bullpen and middle‑order depth.
Current Rosters
Orioles Key Hitters
Pete Alonso: .376 xwOBA, .505 xSLG, 54.3% hard‑hit, 12.5% barrel
Samuel Basallo: .336 xwOBA, .469 xSLG, 45.5% hard‑hit
Gunnar Henderson: .304 xwOBA, 44.3% hard‑hit
Taylor Ward: .349 xwOBA, strong plate discipline (17.4% walk rate)
Red Sox Key Hitters
Willson Contreras: 22 HR, 66 RBI, .283 AVG
Wilyer Abreu: 12‑for‑38, 5 HR, 9 RBI over last 10 games
Boston’s lineup is deeper and hotter entering this matchup.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Kyle Bradish — Orioles
6–9, 3.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106 K
Baltimore’s staff: 4.21 ERA, 2.30 K/BB, 1.35 WHIP (middle‑tier)
Strength: limiting HRs (only 109 allowed by staff).
Concern: bullpen has blown 12 of 37 save chances (67.6% save rate).
Ranger Suárez — Red Sox
Listed as probable but also on IL (groin). Boston may use an opener or bullpen game.
Red Sox pitching has been elite recently (1.88 ERA last 10).
Key Player‑vs‑Player Matchups
1. Bradish vs. Willson Contreras
Contreras’ 22 HR and .283 AVG vs. Bradish’s strong command profile. High‑leverage matchup in middle innings.
2. Boston Bullpen vs. Pete Alonso
Alonso’s 12.5% barrel rate and .505 xSLG make him Baltimore’s most dangerous bat. Boston’s bullpen has been lights‑out during their win streak.
3. Fenway Park vs. Baltimore’s Fly‑Ball Hitters
Ward, Henderson, and Alonso all produce high hard‑hit rates; Fenway’s dimensions reward pulled fly balls.
Betting Trends
Red Sox Trend: 14‑game win streak; 10‑0 last 10.
Orioles Trend: 7–3 last 10; offense improving.
Game Odds
Baltimore Orioles – 109
Boston Red Sox 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 20, 2026
