Venue: Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, Ohio
First Pitch: 6:40 PM EDT (3:40 PM PDT)
Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Chase Young (RHP)
CIN: Hunter Greene (RHP)
Venue Breakdown — Great American Ball Park
One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks, especially for right‑handed power.
Capacity: ~42,300
Park Factor: Strongly favors home runs
Impact:
Greene’s high‑velocity fastball can be punished if elevated
Orioles’ right‑handed bats get a boost
Warm July air increases ball carry
Weather Conditions — Cincinnati, OH
Classic hot and humid Fourth of July baseball weather.
Temperature at First Pitch: 86–90°F
Humidity: 65–75%
Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to left field
Conditions: Clear skies
Impact:
Boost for right‑handed pull hitters
Elevated HR risk for both pitchers
Run scoring environment trending upward
Injury Report & Player Availability
Baltimore Orioles
OUT:
Cedric Mullins — groin strain
QUESTIONABLE:
Adley Rutschman — minor thumb soreness (expected to play)
Available:
Gunnar Henderson
Ryan Mountcastle
Jordan Westburg
Colton Cowser
Cincinnati Reds
OUT:
Matt McLain — shoulder surgery
QUESTIONABLE:
Elly De La Cruz — quad tightness (game‑time decision)
Available:
Spencer Steer
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand
TJ Friedl
Will Benson
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Chase Young — RHP, Orioles
Record: 4–6
ERA: 4.62
WHIP: 1.34
Profile:
Four‑seam/slider mix
Fly‑ball tendencies (38% FB rate)
Vulnerable to right‑handed power
Matchup Impact:
Reds’ right‑handed bats (Steer, CES) pose major threats
Wind blowing out increases HR risk
Hunter Greene — RHP, Reds
Record: 5–7
ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.29
Profile:
Elite velocity (98–100 mph)
High strikeout rate (10.9 K/9)
Occasional command issues
Matchup Impact:
Orioles’ aggressive hitters can punish elevated fastballs
Henderson vs. Greene is a marquee matchup
Team Records & Statistical Profile
Baltimore Orioles (41–48)
Road Record: 18–26
Runs/Game: 4.39
Runs Allowed/Game: 4.77
Strengths:
Strong young core
Good defensive infield
Henderson’s elite power
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent pitching
Limited lineup depth
Bullpen volatility
Cincinnati Reds (40–47)
Home Record: 22–22
Runs/Game: 4.51
Runs Allowed/Game: 4.83
Strengths:
Strong athletic lineup
Good team speed
Greene’s strikeout ability
Weaknesses:
Bullpen inconsistency
High strikeout offense
Vulnerable to right‑handed power
Recent Team Form
Orioles — Last 10 Games
Record: 4–6
Trend: Offense cold; pitching inconsistent
Key Note: Henderson slugging .580 over last 10
Reds — Last 10 Games
Record: 5–5
Trend: Offense improving; bullpen shaky
Key Note: Steer hitting .345 over last 10
Series History
Season Series: First meeting of 2026
Last 10 Meetings: Orioles lead 6–4
At Great American Ball Park: Reds lead 4–3
Trend: High‑scoring games — 7 of last 10 over 9 total runs
Betting Trends
Orioles Trends
3–6 in last nine road games
Overs hit in 6 of last 8
Young’s starts: BAL 4–6 in his last 10
Reds Trends
4–2 in last six home games
Overs hit in 5 of last 7
Greene’s starts: CIN 6–4 in his last 10
Matchup Trends
Great American Ball Park overs hit 62% in July
Both teams rank top‑10 in HR rate over last 15 games
Game Odds
Baltimore Orioles 9
Cincinnati Reds – 117
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, July 3, 2026
