Venue: Wrigley Field — Chicago, Illinois
First Pitch: 1:20 PM CT / 11:20 AM PT
Surface: Natural grass
Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports Arizona, MLB.TV
WEATHER REPORT — WRIGLEY FIELD
Temperature: 58–61°F at first pitch
Wind: Blowing out to right‑center at 10–14 mph — significant offensive impact
Humidity: 55%
Precipitation: <10% chance
Ballpark Impact:
Wind out at Wrigley historically increases HR rate by 15–25%
Boosts left‑handed pull hitters and right‑handed opposite‑field power
Total scoring tends to rise by 0.8–1.2 runs
INJURY REPORT
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll (OF) — Questionable, minor wrist soreness; trending toward playing
Eugenio Suárez (3B) — Probable, routine maintenance
Jordan Montgomery (SP) — Out, shoulder fatigue
Paul Sewald (CL) — Out, forearm tightness (10‑day IL)
Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki (RF) — Out, oblique strain
Justin Steele (SP) — Probable, minor back tightness but expected to start
Nico Hoerner (2B) — Probable, ankle soreness
Adbert Alzolay (RP) — Out, elbow inflammation
TEAM RECORDS & PERFORMANCE
Arizona Diamondbacks (16–16)
Run Differential: +4
Road Record: 7–9
Last 10 Games: 4–6
Offense: 4.28 runs/game
Pitching: 4.41 ERA
Bullpen: 4.62 ERA (bottom‑third MLB)
Chicago Cubs (21–12)
Run Differential: +32
Home Record: 12–5
Last 10 Games: 7–3
Offense: 4.92 runs/game
Pitching: 3.71 ERA
Bullpen: 3.48 ERA (top‑10 MLB)
RECENT TEAM FORM
Arizona Diamondbacks
Offense inconsistent; reliant on top‑order production
Rotation struggling to reach 6+ innings
Bullpen volatility costing late leads
Carroll’s slump (if he plays) remains a concern
Chicago Cubs
Lineup depth carrying them despite Suzuki’s absence
Starting pitching stabilizing with Steele returning
Bullpen performing well in high‑leverage spots
Strong situational hitting: .287 AVG w/ RISP last 7 games
PROBABLE STARTING PITCHERS
Arizona — Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
2026 Season: 2–2, 4.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Strengths: Strike throwing, slider command
Weaknesses: HR susceptibility (1.3 HR/9) — dangerous with wind out
Vs. Cubs: 4.50 career ERA
Chicago — Justin Steele (LHP)
2026 Season: 3–1, 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Strengths: Weak‑contact inducer, elite cutter
Weaknesses: Occasional early‑inning command issues
Vs. Diamondbacks: 2.87 career ERA
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
1. Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Justin Steele (CHC)
Carroll’s speed neutralized by Steele’s cutter inside
If Carroll plays, his OBP is critical to Arizona’s run creation Edge: Cubs
2. Christian Walker (ARI) vs. Wrigley Wind
Walker’s power plays extremely well with wind out
Hard‑hit rate among NL leaders Edge: Diamondbacks (power upside)
3. Cody Bellinger (CHC) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
Bellinger crushes high‑spin fastballs
Pfaadt’s fastball is hittable when elevated Edge: Cubs
4. Bullpen Battle
Cubs: more reliable late‑inning arms
Arizona: missing Sewald, struggling to close games Edge: Cubs
SERIES HISTORY
2025–26 Season Series: Cubs lead 2–1 entering this game
Last 10 Meetings: Cubs lead 6–4
At Wrigley Field: Cubs have won 5 of last 7
Arizona struggles with Chicago’s left‑handed pitching historically.
BETTING TRENDS
Arizona Diamondbacks
3–7 in last 10 road games
Over is 6–2 in last 8 when Pfaadt starts
2–8 in last 10 at Wrigley
Chicago Cubs
7–1 in last 8 home games
Over is 5–1 in last 6 day games
10–3 in last 13 vs. teams .500 or worse
GAME ODDS
Arizona Diamondbacks 12
Chicago Cubs – 156
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, May 2, 2026
